2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:18 am

Worth mentioning that a storm of this magnitude, likely a category 5, to track out to sea but close enough to the coast could still bring high impacts in terms of surge and maybe winds to the Shores.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:36 am

Another day, another day of probable insanity in model-land ahaha GFS running now. Strap yourselves in boys and girls, I'm sure we're in for another day of wild rides lmaooooo

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:42 am

12z GFS roll call!
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:55 am

aiannone wrote:12z GFS roll call!

waiting to see before I go outside to enjoy..hope the start of the new year is going well for you!!
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:55 am

aiannone wrote:12z GFS roll call!

lol! lol! lol! We're not a bunch of nerds or anything...........lmao!!

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Radz on Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:56 am

aiannone wrote:12z GFS roll call!

Bets, bets anyone??!!
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:00 pm

The start of the year is going well thank you! and Yea we may be nerds a bit lol
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:02 pm

Radz wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z GFS roll call!

Bets, bets anyone??!!

5" of snow to the seasonal snow total this year GFS is further west Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:06 pm

Similar to 0z through 120. Maybe a tic south
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:10 pm

Radz wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z GFS roll call!

Bets, bets anyone??!!
I think it comes west of 6z.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:11 pm

Def a bit SW so far through 138
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:13 pm

I see she weakened to a Cat 2 and isnt progged to be up to  a 4, only a 3 in the cone.  Is that good or bad in terms of her future? I wonder if its that colder water Levi talked about.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:14 pm

Further south and 13mb weaker at 144. My best guess, a carolinas or VA hit and then ride up inland.  Would still get big impacts if that happened, a cat 3 or 4 would not have much time to weaken.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I see she weakened to a Cat 2 and isnt progged to be up to  a 4, only a 3 in the cone.  Is that good or bad in terms of her future? I wonder if its that colder water Levi talked about.

is that also what happens when there is an eye reorg the storms weakens a bit..I think that is happening right now as well..as it hitting cooler water
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:17 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I see she weakened to a Cat 2 and isnt progged to be up to  a 4, only a 3 in the cone.  Is that good or bad in terms of her future? I wonder if its that colder water Levi talked about.

is that also what happens when there is an eye reorg the storms weakens a bit..I think that is happening right now as well..as it hitting cooler water
Eyewall replacement cycle yes.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by RJB8525 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I see she weakened to a Cat 2 and isnt progged to be up to  a 4, only a 3 in the cone.  Is that good or bad in terms of her future? I wonder if its that colder water Levi talked about.
not by much only a 5mph difference
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z EPS affraid

Judging  by those anywhere from carolinas north look to have a pretty decent threat ATM.  Do you see OTS still being a possibility? Most things I have read is that door is closing.

Actually its still really split into FL/GOM or up EC.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I see she weakened to a Cat 2 and isnt progged to be up to  a 4, only a 3 in the cone.  Is that good or bad in terms of her future? I wonder if its that colder water Levi talked about.

is that also what happens when there is an eye reorg the storms weakens a bit..I think that is happening right now as well..as it hitting cooler water
Eyewall replacement cycle yes.

thanks for the correct terminology... Smile
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:19 pm

GFS is a much smaller storm than 00z Euro was too, interesting.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:24 pm

Quickly strengthening at 180
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:25 pm

aiannone wrote:Quickly strengthening at 180
Yep cat 5 913mb, Barely moving too, thats prolly aiding
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:25 pm

Hour 186 down to 915mb lol
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:27 pm

aiannone wrote:Hour 186 down to 915mb lol
Look at the hi-res its 913mb, if this is true the media is go be flying off the handle by then.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:29 pm

Wow 910mb...Looks about like the Euro did at 00z honestly but stronger.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:32 pm

Just a note 12z CMC is east now of tip of FL and headed for a turn,. GFS through 201 is way slower, past runs it was already up here still way down south and barely moving.


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