2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
FWIW here is the 12Z Ukmet. 00Z was very similar. The Ukie did a great job with Irma and the west track. Again its all really early so I am not getting to worked up over any one soln. I have my thoughts but will wait until we see some consistency at H5
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Euro went a lot further west compared to 0z
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Snow88 wrote:
looks like a Nike swoosh
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Also shows a lot more getting close to the conus.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Posted by Ryan Hanrahan: NBC Connecticut Met. Interesting....
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Stronger this run compared to 12z
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
18z GFS is further east and looks like the Euro, minus the strength
Several more days to go so expect more solutions
Several more days to go so expect more solutions
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Several? We got till weekend just for the loop, I do not think its until then we will know for sure where he may go from there.Snow88 wrote:18z GFS is further east and looks like the Euro, minus the strength
Several more days to go so expect more solutions
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:what u think sroc. Alot people think this may be second for fl instead of going north. On other forums I mean. Mainly focused on tropics. Of course this is my go to place I don't Belong to them but do read occasionally.sroc4 wrote:Oh GFS how you tease us in the Md range
I think just like Irma from Fla to SE Canada should monitor the H5 pattern over the next week. This too will be a complex set up but for different reasons. In addition to the energy that is Jose itself, Jose may be influenced by a tropical wave from the East, which may or may play a role. First things first whats happening at H5 over the next 3-5 days and where does it put Jose. What does the energy that is Irma do over the next 3-4days? Beyond this time frame is pure fantasy and if any one or any site thinks they have it nailed down they are full of Shhh-Eye-zza. I may do a write up tomorrow amorn looking at the set up for the 3-5 day time frame. JUST LIKE IRMA the H5 pattern over NA and the Western Atlantic Ridge(WAR) will be the key.
The only thing I will say about Jose now is that I believe an EC landfall is more likely than not at this time. 60%/40 with low confidence. This of course is subject to change.
I'm hurt, Scott lmfaooooo jk definitely a sensible and respectable approach aha
My initial thought was that this system (Jose) was going to landfall somewhere along the East Coast from the Carolinas to southern New England, but that was based on about 15 minutes of analysis two or three days ago. I still haven't had time to go in-depth with it, but as of yesterday, and even this morning, it was looking like I might have to adjust my thinking to the following: southeastern New England to Newfoundland/Labrador (and no, not just because of the spaghettis lol). Take all of this with a salt lick, though, because I haven't looked at nearly enough to make a truly "informed" decision as to say where I think this system is most likely to track. Those are just my preliminary options that are currently on the table at the moment, though, I do not think this has a chance of getting into any area from Florida westward.
Why are you "pretend hurt" Ray. lol Personally if you put a gun to my head, and I actually had this written but then erased it before I hit send on the above comments I made, from OBX to Novia Scotia is where I think, if it is going to landfall, needs to pay particular attention. The reason I include areas south of that is because of the WAR. With Irma I did not believe that it would be as strong as it was. But the nose of that SOB really pushed her further S and W than I thought. So in this case with 4.5-5 days out with a 500mb pattern that looks like this:
.....a tick west is not out of the realm of possibility. I guess Fla is prob a tad far south in reality as Jose will have a much further N starting point, but I don't believe we can completely exclude the area from Ga/Sc area on Northward if that 591 thickness trends stronger and west. Well see
Saying that I'm full of (whatever you said lmao) for trying to nail down where I feel most confident where this might go beyond 3-5 days ahahaha
Also, things came up of an important nature that will now not allow me to get a video out today, but I will try my darnedest to get it out ASAP. That said, I *think* I'm becoming more concerned for a New England (or immediate surrounding areas to the north and/or south) landfall. This pattern is.......for lack of a more scientific term; icky. And I don't like these types patterns. Clear-cut ones are much nicer lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Oh really rb I let's get a good storm up here nothing utterly devastating but let's break this boredom. If it missed and hits b town I'm go blame u lol. To me the models look to be going away from the us but that as sroc said in 5 plus day range is easily changable.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:Oh really rb I let's get a good storm up here nothing utterly devastating but let's break this boredom. If it missed and hits b town I'm go blame u lol. To me the models look to be going away from the us but that as sroc said in 5 plus day range is easily changable.
im a very casual observere of this form so i carry no merit...but how in teh world can u wish for a storm to hit our area? i grew up on the jersey shore, Sandy ruined lives down there...
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Thats the tough part about weather you cannot have a exciting storm without major issues, so although I love to see rough weather I would never wish harm or loss of property on anyone, I am not the only one on here but I completely see your pt of view, and i never said anything like Sandy, besides GFS today has Jose way OTS, so whatever happens in the end is what happens what I say holds no merit to what mother nature decides.carbomb31 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Oh really rb I let's get a good storm up here nothing utterly devastating but let's break this boredom. If it missed and hits b town I'm go blame u lol. To me the models look to be going away from the us but that as sroc said in 5 plus day range is easily changable.
im a very casual observere of this form so i carry no merit...but how in teh world can u wish for a storm to hit our area? i grew up on the jersey shore, Sandy ruined lives down there...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I think I can say this beyond a reasonable degree of doubt: Today's 12z CMC is the most obscure track I've ever seen any type of system take lmfaoooooooo smh ahahaha like, what even IS that? Ahaha
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Unfortunately, however, it does depict a very similar pattern progression to what I am fearful of and think I'm leaning toward at the moment. Interesting and entertaining nonetheless lol
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Well rb u got it right last time so my ears are open. I guess models will have to adjust cuz all guidance is it's. But I didn't see cmc going to look haha.
Okay that is bizarre so I'm guessing ur fear is a northeastern or midatlsntic landfall? Is there anyway that cmc plays out lol. It's like I'm coming nope...now I'm coming....nope....okay here I am.
Okay that is bizarre so I'm guessing ur fear is a northeastern or midatlsntic landfall? Is there anyway that cmc plays out lol. It's like I'm coming nope...now I'm coming....nope....okay here I am.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
You mean this? Oh, hello Jersey Shore? This would make Jose quite a dancer...rb924119 wrote:I think I can say this beyond a reasonable degree of doubt: Today's 12z CMC is the most obscure track I've ever seen any type of system take lmfaoooooooo smh ahahaha like, what even IS that? Ahaha
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
12z ecmwf misses conus
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Lol what is Jose doing the Sasa dance
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
CyphaPSU wrote:You mean this? Oh, hello Jersey Shore? This would make Jose quite a dancer...rb924119 wrote:I think I can say this beyond a reasonable degree of doubt: Today's 12z CMC is the most obscure track I've ever seen any type of system take lmfaoooooooo smh ahahaha like, what even IS that? Ahaha
I really want this to verify. Just to say that it did. (of course with minimal destruction and no loss of life)
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Look I'm not saying this is going to happen here, but the UKIE has remained very persistent on this southern track. It is for all intents and purposes on its own here. That said it too was very insistent on the western track of Irma well before the GFS and King Euro. Day 5+ the Ukie has does a nice job with hurricanes this season. Something to pay attention to at least.
I showed you the 12z UKIE from yesterday which showed a Fla landfall. The 00z from the night before were similar. Now here are last nights 00z and todays 12z showing similar solns. Of course tonight it will likely correct east but the UKIE is the thing to make you go hmmmm.
00z
12z
I showed you the 12z UKIE from yesterday which showed a Fla landfall. The 00z from the night before were similar. Now here are last nights 00z and todays 12z showing similar solns. Of course tonight it will likely correct east but the UKIE is the thing to make you go hmmmm.
00z
12z
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
[quote="sroc4"]Look I'm not saying this is going to happen here, but the UKIE has remained very persistent on this southern track. It is for all intents and purposes on its own here. That said it too was very insistent on the western track of Irma well before the GFS and King Euro. Day 5+ the Ukie has does a nice job with hurricanes this season. Something to pay attention to at least.
I showed you the 12z UKIE from yesterday which showed a Fla landfall. The 00z from the night before were similar. Now here are last nights 00z and todays 12z showing similar solns. Of course tonight it will likely correct east but the UKIE is the thing to make you go hmmmm.
that would be insane if that happened to them again...i guess we are back to tracking again..all I want to say is I want SNOW...this tropical stuff is too stressful...we just need lots of snow and people can just b**ch (excuse my language)about shoveling...instead of having to rebuild a whole state...so sad...my friends aunt who stayed on the keys has not been heard from yet...scary...I just saw on tv a little while ago that a 3 story concrete apartment on the keys had the 3rd floor where the 1st should have been...tragic
I showed you the 12z UKIE from yesterday which showed a Fla landfall. The 00z from the night before were similar. Now here are last nights 00z and todays 12z showing similar solns. Of course tonight it will likely correct east but the UKIE is the thing to make you go hmmmm.
that would be insane if that happened to them again...i guess we are back to tracking again..all I want to say is I want SNOW...this tropical stuff is too stressful...we just need lots of snow and people can just b**ch (excuse my language)about shoveling...instead of having to rebuild a whole state...so sad...my friends aunt who stayed on the keys has not been heard from yet...scary...I just saw on tv a little while ago that a 3 story concrete apartment on the keys had the 3rd floor where the 1st should have been...tragic
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Yeah other forums have been harp on the ukie. It's the only one going to fl which is interesting.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
So Frank what are your thoughts are you going to start a Jose thread? 18z is coming in way west of 12z fwiw.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:what u think sroc. Alot people think this may be second for fl instead of going north. On other forums I mean. Mainly focused on tropics. Of course this is my go to place I don't Belong to them but do read occasionally.sroc4 wrote:Oh GFS how you tease us in the Md range
I think just like Irma from Fla to SE Canada should monitor the H5 pattern over the next week. This too will be a complex set up but for different reasons. In addition to the energy that is Jose itself, Jose may be influenced by a tropical wave from the East, which may or may play a role. First things first whats happening at H5 over the next 3-5 days and where does it put Jose. What does the energy that is Irma do over the next 3-4days? Beyond this time frame is pure fantasy and if any one or any site thinks they have it nailed down they are full of Shhh-Eye-zza. I may do a write up tomorrow amorn looking at the set up for the 3-5 day time frame. JUST LIKE IRMA the H5 pattern over NA and the Western Atlantic Ridge(WAR) will be the key.
The only thing I will say about Jose now is that I believe an EC landfall is more likely than not at this time. 60%/40 with low confidence. This of course is subject to change.
I'm hurt, Scott lmfaooooo jk definitely a sensible and respectable approach aha
My initial thought was that this system (Jose) was going to landfall somewhere along the East Coast from the Carolinas to southern New England, but that was based on about 15 minutes of analysis two or three days ago. I still haven't had time to go in-depth with it, but as of yesterday, and even this morning, it was looking like I might have to adjust my thinking to the following: southeastern New England to Newfoundland/Labrador (and no, not just because of the spaghettis lol). Take all of this with a salt lick, though, because I haven't looked at nearly enough to make a truly "informed" decision as to say where I think this system is most likely to track. Those are just my preliminary options that are currently on the table at the moment, though, I do not think this has a chance of getting into any area from Florida westward.
Why are you "pretend hurt" Ray. lol Personally if you put a gun to my head, and I actually had this written but then erased it before I hit send on the above comments I made, from OBX to Novia Scotia is where I think, if it is going to landfall, needs to pay particular attention. The reason I include areas south of that is because of the WAR. With Irma I did not believe that it would be as strong as it was. But the nose of that SOB really pushed her further S and W than I thought. So in this case with 4.5-5 days out with a 500mb pattern that looks like this:
.....a tick west is not out of the realm of possibility. I guess Fla is prob a tad far south in reality as Jose will have a much further N starting point, but I don't believe we can completely exclude the area from Ga/Sc area on Northward if that 591 thickness trends stronger and west. Well see
Saying that I'm full of (whatever you said lmao) for trying to nail down where I feel most confident where this might go beyond 3-5 days ahahaha
Also, things came up of an important nature that will now not allow me to get a video out today, but I will try my darnedest to get it out ASAP. That said, I *think* I'm becoming more concerned for a New England (or immediate surrounding areas to the north and/or south) landfall. This pattern is.......for lack of a more scientific term; icky. And I don't like these types patterns. Clear-cut ones are much nicer lmao
Hey Ray I hope you didn't think that this was directed at you. In no way shape or form was it. I have way more respect for you than that. I am extremely sorry if it came across that way. I meant no disrespect at all. There are others on other boards who use words that are more definitive if you will. Like "this is what's going to happen" without entertaining any other ideas on the matter; then flip but use the same definitive words like they have been on it all along. You know..the DT's of the world. The guys who look down on others for disagreeing with them. This is def not you. Again this was in no way directed at you my friend.
.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Jose is further west through 90 on the GFS
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