2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:22 am

Snow88 wrote:Wow
yep u said it.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:26 am

Does this muy loco mf'er really STALL on that run?! Beach erosion central.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:26 am

And then it just stops and sits.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:28 am

Lol u serious hr 192 starts drift south.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:29 am

The 00Z CMC gives SNE some Jose storm love.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:32 am

Yikes cmc is Monday hit. If kept west would slam entire area.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:14 am

Ukie was what Scott was talking bout for fl. Will have see if this continues north and west
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:40 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Oh GFS how you tease us in the Md range
what u think sroc. Alot people think this may be second for fl instead of going north. On other forums I mean. Mainly focused on tropics. Of course this is my go to place I don't Belong to them but do read occasionally.

I think just like Irma from Fla to SE Canada should monitor the H5 pattern over the next week.  This too will be a complex set up but for different reasons.   In addition to the energy that is Jose itself, Jose may be influenced by a tropical wave from the East, which may or may play a role.   First things first whats happening at H5 over the next 3-5 days and where does it put Jose. What does the energy that is Irma do over the next 3-4days?  Beyond this time frame is pure fantasy and if any one or any site thinks they have it nailed down they are full of Shhh-Eye-zza.  I may do a write up tomorrow amorn looking at the set up for the 3-5 day time frame.  JUST LIKE IRMA the H5 pattern over NA and the Western Atlantic Ridge(WAR) will be the key.  

The only thing I will say about Jose now is that I believe an EC landfall is more likely than not at this time.  60%/40 with low confidence.  This of course  is subject to change.    

I'm hurt, Scott Sad Sad lmfaooooo jk definitely a sensible and respectable approach aha

My initial thought was that this system (Jose) was going to landfall somewhere along the East Coast from the Carolinas to southern New England, but that was based on about 15 minutes of analysis two or three days ago. I still haven't had time to go in-depth with it, but as of yesterday, and even this morning, it was looking like I might have to adjust my thinking to the following: southeastern New England to Newfoundland/Labrador (and no, not just because of the spaghettis lol). Take all of this with a salt lick, though, because I haven't looked at nearly enough to make a truly "informed" decision as to say where I think this system is most likely to track. Those are just my preliminary options that are currently on the table at the moment, though, I do not think this has a chance of getting into any area from Florida westward.

Why are you "pretend hurt" Ray.  lol  Personally if you put a gun to my head, and I actually had this written but then erased it before I hit send on the above comments I made, from OBX to Novia Scotia is where I think, if it is going to landfall, needs to pay particular attention.  The reason I include areas south of that is because of the WAR.  With Irma I did not believe that it would be as strong as it was.  But the nose of that SOB really pushed her further S and W than I thought.  So in this case with 4.5-5 days out with a 500mb pattern that looks like this:




.....a tick west is not out of the realm of possibility.  I guess Fla is prob a tad far south in reality as Jose will have a much further N starting point, but I don't believe we can completely exclude the area from Ga/Sc area on Northward if that 591 thickness trends stronger and west.  Well see

Saying that I'm full of (whatever you said lmao) for trying to nail down where I feel most confident where this might go beyond 3-5 days ahahaha

Also, things came up of an important nature that will now not allow me to get a video out today, but I will try my darnedest to get it out ASAP. That said, I *think* I'm becoming more concerned for a New England (or immediate surrounding areas to the north and/or south) landfall. This pattern is.......for lack of a more scientific term; icky. And I don't like these types patterns. Clear-cut ones are much nicer lmao


Hey Ray I hope you didn't think that this was directed at you. In no way shape or form was it. I have way more respect for you than that. I am extremely sorry if it came across that way. I meant no disrespect at all. There are others on other boards who use words that are more definitive if you will. Like "this is what's going to happen" without entertaining any other ideas on the matter; then flip but use the same definitive words like they have been on it all along. You know..the DT's of the world. The guys who look down on others for disagreeing with them. This is def not you. Again this was in no way directed at you my friend.
.

Oh I know, Scott, absolutely no worries!! It was meant as a joke lol I knew it wasn't directed at me! If anything, my response was an extension of what you as a self-depricating joke saying that I actually am probably insane for trying to even attempt at making an educated guess on the eventual outcome. Nothing was taken personally, hence all the laughter in my initial response aha I think I should stop trying to be sarcastic, though; since I'm now 0-2 in facilating laughter and 2-0 in facilitating thoughts that I'm upset lmaooooo

Interesting runs at 00z so far, btw. I found it interesting how the GFS now looks similar the CMC and that the UKMET looks to have shifted much further northeast from previous runs. Also of note is the NAVGEM's consistency in showing a landfall similarly to the GFS/CMC. Might be an interesting Euro run. Keep in mind, though, these are only operational runs, so flipping is to be expected, but it lends at least a little credibility to my thinking. Patience will be a virtue yet again with this system.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:43 am

Of course after I type this, I check the EURO; my response.......OMG EURO JOINING THE CLUB??????

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:52 am

Ya rb sure does. There seems to be on many of the models something that boots it just before it comes in. Not go say what storm it looks like on euro run but it retrogrades.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:57 am

jmanley32 wrote:Ya rb sure does. There seems to be on many of the models something that boots it just before it comes in. Not go say what storm it looks like on euro run but it retrogrades.

The incoming trough is what has been doing that on past runs in concert with a weaker Atlantic ridge. Neither of which I agree with given my spotty analyses.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:58 am

OMG EURO JOINS THE CLUB!!!!!!!!

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:02 am

06z hurricane models.........UH OH. Though off-hour run.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:19 am

I wonder if frank puts up a thread today he said he was go wait till wed. I'm curious nhc has him disipating to ts. Is it expected to increase again after that as models show?
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:00 am

I can't speak for him, Jman. He may not even see this as a credible threat, idk. I think it will maintain Cat-1 strength, though later once closer to our latitude it may no longer be technically classified as purely "tropical". I think it will either be transitioning or possibly even completely non-tropical by that point.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:01 am

By the way, I don't remember if I ever said this earlier, but best of luck with your new job, buddy!! I hope it works out!!

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:08 am

rb924119 wrote:By the way, I don't remember if I ever said this earlier, but best of luck with your new job, buddy!! I hope it works out!!
thanks I start Monday. Of course right when Jose may b a threat lol. Not gonna b able be online at work. Check phone at lunch. No I know u can't speak for him but judging that models are coming back to what they were showing and will probably wiper again and again but I see a threat there. Can't wait to watch ur video. Also that's what I figured a quite strong subtropical system even shown on the euro which is bit concerning. Did u see navgem woah. I could b wrong but this looks like one we may not have to track for much more than 7 days or so?
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:59 am

Ray how about a well positioned emoji told ya , meme, or GIF to indicate the sarcasm in your writings?  This way I don't feel like takenback this or facepalm this when I read the response to what I write.  lol!

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Dec 11th = coating
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Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:44 am

Jose is going to drive everyone to drink. 8 days away??
What happens with the remains of Irma's trough (true) and a storm that is in Siberia (only kidding) will have a major effect on how this plays out. This may due an Opal and sit out in the Atlantic for days on end and loop towards the coast and then say haha tease and go back to sitting 250 miles off the coast before a trough picks him up.
Complex set up for sure.


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Snow88 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:06 am

8 days away? I thought this is going to hit Monday
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:58 am

My accuwx local forecast says chance of rain and windy wed next week maybe this is due to Jose? So yeah 7 or 8 days.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:04 pm

GFS and CMC back East, but UKIE holding along OBX:



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:15 pm

Is the trough that is Irmas remnants really going to erode the ridging/HP North of Jose and tugg him north or not? Or is the Ridging going to be strong enough to suppress him far enough south such that it does not feel much of Irmas effects and ends up further west at which time does Jose cuttoff from the main flow as Irmas remnants lift out and he waits for the next trough to pull him back towards the coast.  Next two or three days we will know.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:08 pm

Euro seems frozen on hr 42 for me. Anyone else having the same problem?

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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