2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:31 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:18z GEFS



0z GEFS



6z GEFS

big increase in intensity on those maps too.

Yeah, definitely further west and stronger from the overnight runs. Still turns OTS, but doesn't need to come much further west at some of those strengths to cause some problems

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:46 am

Won't take much of a shift to cause a full landfall. Lots chatter this could happen all over varioys discussion places. Nhc isn't swinging to left yet but did add slight nw turn in cone. Also they took intensity in consideration now showing hurricane going north. He was up to 80 mph last I checked a small uptick. But does anyone else find it odd they are not doing any recon data on Jose? I mean even if it isn't a threat which is appearing it more likely is they still usually do recon missions.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:02 am

Rb,

Great spelled out post on Jose. Going to be an interesting few days upcoming.

Meanwhile we have a Lemon and Orange in the Atlantic.


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:34 am

Many are writing Jose off and say fish storm
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:00 am

Well nhc just shifted cone west and the coast is now included in windfield probability area slveit the smallest chance.. Maybe things will change over the coming days. Or maybe they are right and it will go ots. But rb makes a lot sense on his idea and u def can't ignore all the models leaning west. Cmc even made landfall if I remember correctly.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by carbomb31 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:24 am

rb great write up....if we get scenario 2 where Irma trough doesnt have enough strenght to take Jose ots....what does storm do? does it burn itself out if stalls off coast?

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by EnyapWeather on Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:43 am

12z is a tick more east 48hr
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:08 pm

EnyapWeather wrote:12z is a tick more east 48hr

It's actually SW of the last run at Hr 48.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:14 pm

Jeeze sub 945 mb on hi res flirting just offsgore. Go be a close call. Still misses to east part of cape gets clipped but he gets further north B4 treking ne.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by freezerburn on Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:16 pm

Just off coast and strong...looks like it gets a little further north towards the cape before turning its compared to 6z

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:22 pm

Ok I was wrong there is now going to be recon to Jose tomorrow.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:40 pm

UKIE is a hit peeps - oh boy Rb has the hot hand let it roll kid and hopefully is continues through D-F!!
From another bd - location of the storm at 144 YIKES!!!

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:47 pm

Here comes Lee - LOL!!


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:51 pm

OH NO WAY JOSE !!
Ukie has the hot hand with these tropical entities 5 days plus. Interseting run and set up it shows - almost to a T of what Rb explained.




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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:19 pm

NAVGEM a tad more east - a graze to NYC Metro - still does damage to shores though with erosion and flooding


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:23 pm

amugs wrote:UKIE is a hit peeps - oh boy Rb has the hot hand let it roll kid and hopefully is continues through D-F!!
From another bd - location of the storm at 144 YIKES!!!
The center!! What direction is it headed in? That's still close rnpugh if gfs intensify verifies to cause issues from VA to CT.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:33 pm

amugs wrote:NAVGEM a tad more east - a graze to NYC Metro - still does damage to shores though with erosion and flooding

Looks like wind field would b huge. Prolly still cause ts winds well inlsnd. And that's bout as close as u can get without a landfall. Rb ftw so far!
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:43 pm

If you follow the UKIE and the Navgem that Mugsy posted especially. You can see that Jose is moving NNW and continues to a NJ or LI landfall.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:17 pm

shout



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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:33 pm

Euro east of 00z

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:43 pm

sroc4 wrote:Euro east of 00z

Dr NO strikes again!! Sad Sad

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:50 pm

amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Euro east of 00z

Dr NO strikes again!! Sad Sad

lets see what the ens do

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Dec 11th = coating
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March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:50 pm

amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Euro east of 00z

Dr NO strikes again!! Sad Sad
Lol Dr. Who? Model wobbles I think we have a decent handle on this by sun. I hope so cuz if it does show hit it looks like wed so would b 3 days.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:52 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:shout



Jeeze that was fast was just at 30% now both high. No rest for trackers. We keep up like this we gonna make it to Greek alphabet. Rival 2005.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:29 pm

lol soooo no clue...



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