2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:07 pm

Where are ya frank I'd like to hear your input. No confidence level at all seems that there's a decent chance some kind of effect is felt? Or just not been able update? I know ur busy just wondered what ur update was u said last WK ud update I think Tues or wed but I could b wrong. We await out fearless leader.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:58 pm

carbomb31 wrote:rb great write up....if we get scenario 2 where Irma trough doesnt have enough strenght to take Jose ots....what does storm do?  does it burn itself out if stalls off coast?

Thank you all, I just wish I could be doing more to demonstrate to you all, because I know trying to read things sometimes it is quite difficult to picture :/ to answer your question, it's not Irma's *main* trough (remember, I think a piece of that energy does get left behind to interact with Jose as the main trough is lifted out), but the trough BEHIND Irma's that would potentially deflect Jose narrowly out to sea. Given the pattern, though, I think modeling is much too bullish with this feature's southeastward progression into far southeastern Canada. As a result, you're seeing the models kick Jose out just before it can landfall because the incoming trough (not Irma's) changes the steering flow/breaks the ridge down enough to force a way out. My idea, and similarly to the second part of your question, is that as Jose progresses northward or north-northwestward it will begin to wind itself as it vertically stacks itself while undergoing an extra-tropical transition. HOWEVER, a very touchy part of this forecast is WHEN does that process start? By nauture, these transitions are usually inherently strengthening, so there will be a window for decently rapid intensification before it essentially gasses itself out. Does that answer you sufficiently? Feel free to follow up; that's why we're here aha

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:18 pm

rb924119 wrote:
carbomb31 wrote:rb great write up....if we get scenario 2 where Irma trough doesnt have enough strenght to take Jose ots....what does storm do?  does it burn itself out if stalls off coast?

Thank you all, I just wish I could be doing more to demonstrate to you all, because I know trying to read things sometimes it is quite difficult to picture :/ to answer your question, it's not Irma's *main* trough (remember, I think a piece of that energy does get left behind to interact with Jose as the main trough is lifted out), but the trough BEHIND Irma's that would potentially deflect Jose narrowly out to sea. Given the pattern, though, I think modeling is much too bullish with this feature's southeastward progression into far southeastern Canada. As a result, you're seeing the models kick Jose out just before it can landfall because the incoming trough (not Irma's) changes the steering flow/breaks the ridge down enough to force a way out. My idea, and similarly to the second part of your question, is that as Jose progresses northward or north-northwestward it will begin to wind itself as it vertically stacks itself while undergoing an extra-tropical transition. HOWEVER, a very touchy part of this forecast is WHEN does that process start? By nature, these transitions are usually inherently strengthening, so there will be a window for decently rapid intensification before it essentially gasses itself out. Does that answer you sufficiently? Feel free to follow up; that's why we're here aha

I have labled a few of the moving parts to go along with Rays comments above. The trough he is referring to, that IS NOT Irma, is the one with the star in Canada. As Jose comes north most modeling, with the exception of the UKIE right now, has that starred trough coming in in time to deflect Jose narrowly OTS, because it breaks down the N flank of the ridging to our NE, black circle. What Ray is saying is that the trough should be shallow enough and or far enough away by the time Jose gains lattitude that it will allow a landfall before the steering flow turns S Westerly and steers him NE. At least thats what Im gathering. Correct me if Im wrong.



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Dec 11th = coating
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:41 pm

Only through 24hrs but FWIW 18z GFS coming in with big changes IMO

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:42 pm

36 further W

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:08 pm

Scott, you have such a habit of coming in clutch it's unbelievable ahaha thank you for the huge assist!!

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:16 pm

rb924119 wrote:Scott, you have such a habit of coming in clutch it's unbelievable ahaha thank you for the huge assist!!

We got this!! lol!



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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:19 pm

Subtle shift west on the GFS from 12z as mentioned, but I don't give it much creedance personally because I don't like off-hour runs. However, SREFS would mean big trouble for the Eastern Seaboard starting with Hatteras.......unfortunately (or fortunately) they're at and beyond the limit of their temporal range, so take them as you will lol

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:49 pm

Nhc also shifted their cone west and ts force winds potential are slowly upping along coast.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:52 pm


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:02 pm

Hurricane tracking inside the BM. Now that's interseting cheers
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Where are ya frank I'd like to hear your input. No confidence level at all seems that there's a decent chance some kind of effect is felt? Or just not been able update? I know ur busy just wondered what ur update was u said last WK ud update I think Tues or wed but I could b wrong. We await out fearless leader.

I'm not confident Jose makes landfall on the coast, but I do think he could get close enough to still bring some impact in terms of rain, some wind, and surge. He doesn't look like he will be overly powerful. Maybe a Cat 1 or weaker. There's a ridge over the Atlantic that tries to push him into our coast. However, there is also a negative PNA or progressive flow across the country that would suggest it keeps Jose offshore. Almost looks like he gets stuck in the middle which is why some models slow him down significantly at our latitude. Overall, I don't view him as a serious or concerning threat but he is a threat to bring some hazardous weather to our area.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:21 pm

I took a few posts from the tropics thread and started a thread on Jose. Discuss there.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Snow88 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:24 pm

2 tropical systems to watch in the Atlantic

GFS has the next one slamming into Florida
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by algae888 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Where are ya frank I'd like to hear your input. No confidence level at all seems that there's a decent chance some kind of effect is felt? Or just not been able update? I know ur busy just wondered what ur update was u said last WK ud update I think Tues or wed but I could b wrong. We await out fearless leader.

I'm not confident Jose makes landfall on the coast, but I do think he could get close enough to still bring some impact in terms of rain, some wind, and surge. He doesn't look like he will be overly powerful. Maybe a Cat 1 or weaker. There's a ridge over the Atlantic that tries to push him into our coast. However, there is also a negative PNA or progressive flow across the country that would suggest it keeps Jose offshore. Almost looks like he gets stuck in the middle which is why some models slow him down significantly at our latitude. Overall, I don't view him as a serious or concerning threat but he is a threat to bring some hazardous weather to our area.

AGREE! add in that he is very small, so he will have to make direct landfall (central NJ to central LI) to have any significant impact away from immediate coast (beach erosion and high surf). most likely scenario if he comes close enough is heavy rain with 20-30mph winds with higher gusts(50's along the coast). a very common occurrence in these neck of the woods. probably happens 5+ times a year.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Snow88 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:32 pm

The ridge is the key for Jose

It's concerning that the models keep shifting west. The Atlantic ridge has been strong all year and this might make Jose keep going west.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:41 pm

algae888 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Where are ya frank I'd like to hear your input. No confidence level at all seems that there's a decent chance some kind of effect is felt? Or just not been able update? I know ur busy just wondered what ur update was u said last WK ud update I think Tues or wed but I could b wrong. We await out fearless leader.

I'm not confident Jose makes landfall on the coast, but I do think he could get close enough to still bring some impact in terms of rain, some wind, and surge. He doesn't look like he will be overly powerful. Maybe a Cat 1 or weaker. There's a ridge over the Atlantic that tries to push him into our coast. However, there is also a negative PNA or progressive flow across the country that would suggest it keeps Jose offshore. Almost looks like he gets stuck in the middle which is why some models slow him down significantly at our latitude. Overall, I don't view him as a serious or concerning threat but he is a threat to bring some hazardous weather to our area.

AGREE! add in that he is very small, so he will have to make direct landfall (central NJ to central LI) to have any significant impact away from immediate coast (beach erosion and high surf). most likely scenario if he comes close enough is heavy rain with 20-30mph winds with higher gusts(50's along the coast). a very common occurrence in these neck of the woods. probably happens 5+ times a year.  
Al he expands greatly per models to a very large probably extratropucal system. Or at least the models do but I respect your educated statement.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:38 am

Way way out but ho..leee lol we can do this with the past 3 storms lol. Massive sized cat 4 headed nw toward ec 919 mb  fwiw but way out.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:20 pm

Ruh oh !!!Here we go no rest for the weary PEEPS!! Leeeeeeeeeee



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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:15 pm

amugs wrote:Ruh oh !!!Here we go no rest for the weary PEEPS!! Leeeeeeeeeee



GLOBAL WARMING. PROOF RIGHT THERE!!
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:13 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:Ruh oh !!!Here we go no rest for the weary PEEPS!! Leeeeeeeeeee



GLOBAL WARMING. PROOF RIGHT THERE!!
Oh he did not, sick em boys lol
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:59 pm

maria and lee now a group of 3 again. maria threatens the islands 3x now! thats just aweful, watches are up. does a loop by carolinas and ots another fish storm. lee looks to head way ots.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Snow88 on Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:59 am

Maria into NC/SC border on the Euro as a strong hurricane
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:38 pm

rb didn't you say you were concerned with Maria?  Or is she likely a fish storm?  I read online that there will be plenty of troughs to kick her out.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:rb didn't you say you were concerned with Maria?  Or is she likely a fish storm?  I read online that there will be plenty of troughs to kick her out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/09/17/sunday-evening-maria-strengthening-on-approach-to-lesser-antilles-jose-expected-to-impact-ne-u-s/

his video was very informative-good luck tom with the new job!
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