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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Quietace
Dtone
freezerburn
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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:01 pm

Dtone wrote:The eye look to go directly over Dominica  soon
Scary night there, what is their infrastructure like?  Will they be able to handle it or will this be another Barbuda?

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:55 pm

Maria made landfall on Dominica around 9:15 I can not imagine what is happening right now...so sad and scary..especially with a cat 5 hitting at night...

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Post by Dtone Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:45 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Dtone wrote:The eye look to go directly over Dominica  soon
Scary night there, what is their infrastructure like?  Will they be able to handle it or will this be another Barbuda?

Im not sure. The Prime Minister of Dominica was posting on fb until losing his roof and being rescued.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/national/the-latest-maria-strengthens-into-category-5-hurricane/2017/09/18/46ee4c7a-9cce-11e7-b2a7-bc70b6f98089_story.html

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Post by amugs Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:06 pm

These island will be decimated like Barbuda.
PR maybe next for catastrophic dam age as well as Virgin Islands again!!

Their are reason why we have such power house Hanes this year, no not GW but other factors likeNina state, low shear, deep thermoclonic layer of water in the Atlantic, lack of storms to upwell waters, circulation pattern that are conducive for such and low SAL as well with a IO DIPOLE conducive.

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Post by Dtone Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:36 am




Look at the brief jog north after landfall, ensuring no portion misses the eyewall. Tiny eye

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Post by RJB8525 Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:05 pm

Maria is looking real healthy..holding at 160mph 931mb
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:28 pm

Winds up to 165 mph, pressure down to 920mb

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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:57 pm

Well the EURO does on the 12z run that is definitely something to watch closely. Instead of lingering doing loops over the Atlantic and drawing Maria OTS, it comes back ashore and while it's very weak, acts to try and capture Maria into the coast. Turns away at last minute, but definitely something to watch

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10

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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:47 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Winds up to 165 mph, pressure down to 920mb


By the looks of her she is likely already stronger than that.  Central pressure now down to between 914-916mb with 155kt flight level winds recorded in NE quad.  That would put her close to 175mph.  She is looking as good as ever.  God help PR.  

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Rgb_lalo-animated
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Rbtop_lalo-animated
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA_timeseries
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA

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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:52 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Winds up to 165 mph, pressure down to 920mb


By the looks of her she is likely already stronger than that.  Central pressure now down to between 914-916mb with 155kt flight level winds recorded in NE quad.  That would put her close to 175mph.  She is looking as good as ever.  God help PR.  

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Rgb_lalo-animated
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Rbtop_lalo-animated
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA_timeseries
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA

Yeah, nothing stopping her from strengthening, still several hours over open warm water, scary scenario for PR and St. Croix

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Post by Dtone Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:17 pm

Still ppl without power in PR even before Maria. Seems all communication with Dominica has ceased ?

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:47 pm

Wow Irma now Maria how many more mega cat 5 this year jeeze! Euro is disconcerting but I'm not get sucked in lol
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Post by jwalsh Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:43 pm

18z GFS -- Maria still ends up turning east but is further north when it turns than in previous runs2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 14 Img_5211
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:59 pm

Winds up to 175 mph and pressure still dropping, down to 909mb

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:06 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Winds up to 175 mph and pressure still dropping, down to 909mb

She is still strengthening - see if we can get down to 900MB WTH we've come this far - winds will respond soon after

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:07 pm

GFS teaser again. Waiting till the end of the week to see what is what overall.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:39 pm

Odds are def in favor of a track N then NE then OTS for Maria given the consensus in the majority of the modeling, including the ensembles.  But think about this....has there been one correct consensus, wether it be operationals or ensembles that have nailed the track of ANY of the tropical systems in the 6-10day time frame?  Is there ever a consensus that ends up verifying for winter storms in the same time frame? The answer to these questions are a resounding

NO!!

So although the reasoning behind why it "should" go out to see makes sense, if the modeling is wrong somewhere in the atmosphere in that time frame, and IT IS WRONG SOMEWHERE it always is, then the EC still has to keep a watchful eye on where Maria is in about 5-7days.  In addition, what happens to Jose in the next 5-7days.  Is it further N or south within that huge cone of uncertainty put out by the NHC??  These are two of many mid and upper level features that will ultimately determine what happens to Maria after she gets N of the Turk and Caicos.  So I will go back to being fairly quite...for now.

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Post by jake732 Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:55 pm

nvgem not bad! still ways away tho
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Post by frank 638 Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:15 pm

i just heard maria is up to 185 mph not WIND GUST sustained wind my heart and prayers go out to pr and the rest of the caribbean islands those poor people are still dealing with irma with no water or food or power

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:25 pm

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/910290722967957504

This is sick, pink cloud tops!!

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:28 pm

Scott Lots of time as we r well aware of.
One thing is or sure she is going to level the Virgin Islands and PR.
And how about the massive EQ in Mehico? Thousands will be dead down there when all is said and done hate to say.

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Post by Guest Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:32 pm

Just saw in CNN (so it's probably fake news) the GFS brings Maria up to the outer banks then to the benchmark while the EURO brings it straight from Puerto Rico into LI

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:57 pm

Maria 175 mph sustained winds right now....
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:24 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Maria 175 mph sustained winds right now....

With gusts to 212mph. upset

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Post by jwalsh Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:48 pm

This is what the US Virgin Islands governor is advising his people to do:

"For folks in their homes, I really recommend that you not be in any kind of sleepwear.

Make sure you have your shoes on. Make sure you have a jacket around. Something for your head in case your roof should breach. ... I don't really recommend you be sleeping from 11 o'clock to 4 (a.m.). ... Be aware of what's going on around you."
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:53 pm

jwalsh wrote:This is what the US Virgin Islands governor is advising his people to do:

"For folks in their homes, I really recommend that you not be in any kind of sleepwear.

Make sure you have your shoes on. Make sure you have a jacket around. Something for your head in case your roof should breach. ... I don't really recommend you be sleeping from 11 o'clock to 4 (a.m.). ... Be aware of what's going on around you."

i physically almost became ill after reading this..I can not imagine what is about to happen to them...the fear that people must be feeling...this is beyond words..
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:54 pm

sroc4 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Maria 175 mph sustained winds right now....

With gusts to 212mph. upset

absolutely insane
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