2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
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Quietace
Dtone
freezerburn
EnyapWeather
Sanchize06
jake732
Grselig
CyphaPSU
carbomb31
jwalsh
Math23x7
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sroc4
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frank 638
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35 posters
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Scary night there, what is their infrastructure like? Will they be able to handle it or will this be another Barbuda?Dtone wrote:The eye look to go directly over Dominica soon
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Maria made landfall on Dominica around 9:15 I can not imagine what is happening right now...so sad and scary..especially with a cat 5 hitting at night...
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:Scary night there, what is their infrastructure like? Will they be able to handle it or will this be another Barbuda?Dtone wrote:The eye look to go directly over Dominica soon
Im not sure. The Prime Minister of Dominica was posting on fb until losing his roof and being rescued.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/national/the-latest-maria-strengthens-into-category-5-hurricane/2017/09/18/46ee4c7a-9cce-11e7-b2a7-bc70b6f98089_story.html
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
These island will be decimated like Barbuda.
PR maybe next for catastrophic dam age as well as Virgin Islands again!!
Their are reason why we have such power house Hanes this year, no not GW but other factors likeNina state, low shear, deep thermoclonic layer of water in the Atlantic, lack of storms to upwell waters, circulation pattern that are conducive for such and low SAL as well with a IO DIPOLE conducive.
PR maybe next for catastrophic dam age as well as Virgin Islands again!!
Their are reason why we have such power house Hanes this year, no not GW but other factors likeNina state, low shear, deep thermoclonic layer of water in the Atlantic, lack of storms to upwell waters, circulation pattern that are conducive for such and low SAL as well with a IO DIPOLE conducive.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Satellite imagery shows Hurricane #Maria make landfall in Dominica, bringing "widespread devastation" to the island. https://t.co/QcxOBl1BwM pic.twitter.com/xH2NEelCqM
— ABC News (@ABC) September 19, 2017
Look at the brief jog north after landfall, ensuring no portion misses the eyewall. Tiny eye
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Maria is looking real healthy..holding at 160mph 931mb
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Winds up to 165 mph, pressure down to 920mb
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Well the EURO does on the 12z run that is definitely something to watch closely. Instead of lingering doing loops over the Atlantic and drawing Maria OTS, it comes back ashore and while it's very weak, acts to try and capture Maria into the coast. Turns away at last minute, but definitely something to watch
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Sanchize06 wrote:Winds up to 165 mph, pressure down to 920mb
By the looks of her she is likely already stronger than that. Central pressure now down to between 914-916mb with 155kt flight level winds recorded in NE quad. That would put her close to 175mph. She is looking as good as ever. God help PR.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
sroc4 wrote:Sanchize06 wrote:Winds up to 165 mph, pressure down to 920mb
By the looks of her she is likely already stronger than that. Central pressure now down to between 914-916mb with 155kt flight level winds recorded in NE quad. That would put her close to 175mph. She is looking as good as ever. God help PR.
Yeah, nothing stopping her from strengthening, still several hours over open warm water, scary scenario for PR and St. Croix
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Still ppl without power in PR even before Maria. Seems all communication with Dominica has ceased ?
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Wow Irma now Maria how many more mega cat 5 this year jeeze! Euro is disconcerting but I'm not get sucked in lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
18z GFS -- Maria still ends up turning east but is further north when it turns than in previous runs
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Winds up to 175 mph and pressure still dropping, down to 909mb
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Sanchize06 wrote:Winds up to 175 mph and pressure still dropping, down to 909mb
She is still strengthening - see if we can get down to 900MB WTH we've come this far - winds will respond soon after
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
GFS teaser again. Waiting till the end of the week to see what is what overall.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Odds are def in favor of a track N then NE then OTS for Maria given the consensus in the majority of the modeling, including the ensembles. But think about this....has there been one correct consensus, wether it be operationals or ensembles that have nailed the track of ANY of the tropical systems in the 6-10day time frame? Is there ever a consensus that ends up verifying for winter storms in the same time frame? The answer to these questions are a resounding
NO!!
So although the reasoning behind why it "should" go out to see makes sense, if the modeling is wrong somewhere in the atmosphere in that time frame, and IT IS WRONG SOMEWHERE it always is, then the EC still has to keep a watchful eye on where Maria is in about 5-7days. In addition, what happens to Jose in the next 5-7days. Is it further N or south within that huge cone of uncertainty put out by the NHC?? These are two of many mid and upper level features that will ultimately determine what happens to Maria after she gets N of the Turk and Caicos. So I will go back to being fairly quite...for now.
NO!!
So although the reasoning behind why it "should" go out to see makes sense, if the modeling is wrong somewhere in the atmosphere in that time frame, and IT IS WRONG SOMEWHERE it always is, then the EC still has to keep a watchful eye on where Maria is in about 5-7days. In addition, what happens to Jose in the next 5-7days. Is it further N or south within that huge cone of uncertainty put out by the NHC?? These are two of many mid and upper level features that will ultimately determine what happens to Maria after she gets N of the Turk and Caicos. So I will go back to being fairly quite...for now.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
i just heard maria is up to 185 mph not WIND GUST sustained wind my heart and prayers go out to pr and the rest of the caribbean islands those poor people are still dealing with irma with no water or food or power
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/910290722967957504
This is sick, pink cloud tops!!
This is sick, pink cloud tops!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Scott Lots of time as we r well aware of.
One thing is or sure she is going to level the Virgin Islands and PR.
And how about the massive EQ in Mehico? Thousands will be dead down there when all is said and done hate to say.
One thing is or sure she is going to level the Virgin Islands and PR.
And how about the massive EQ in Mehico? Thousands will be dead down there when all is said and done hate to say.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Just saw in CNN (so it's probably fake news) the GFS brings Maria up to the outer banks then to the benchmark while the EURO brings it straight from Puerto Rico into LI
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Maria 175 mph sustained winds right now....
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
weatherwatchermom wrote:Maria 175 mph sustained winds right now....
With gusts to 212mph.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
This is what the US Virgin Islands governor is advising his people to do:
"For folks in their homes, I really recommend that you not be in any kind of sleepwear.
Make sure you have your shoes on. Make sure you have a jacket around. Something for your head in case your roof should breach. ... I don't really recommend you be sleeping from 11 o'clock to 4 (a.m.). ... Be aware of what's going on around you."
"For folks in their homes, I really recommend that you not be in any kind of sleepwear.
Make sure you have your shoes on. Make sure you have a jacket around. Something for your head in case your roof should breach. ... I don't really recommend you be sleeping from 11 o'clock to 4 (a.m.). ... Be aware of what's going on around you."
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jwalsh wrote:This is what the US Virgin Islands governor is advising his people to do:
"For folks in their homes, I really recommend that you not be in any kind of sleepwear.
Make sure you have your shoes on. Make sure you have a jacket around. Something for your head in case your roof should breach. ... I don't really recommend you be sleeping from 11 o'clock to 4 (a.m.). ... Be aware of what's going on around you."
i physically almost became ill after reading this..I can not imagine what is about to happen to them...the fear that people must be feeling...this is beyond words..
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
sroc4 wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:Maria 175 mph sustained winds right now....
With gusts to 212mph.
absolutely insane
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