2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:32 pm

Unbelievable.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:17 pm

St. CROIX is going to be no more and San Juan will be San GONE!! Pray these folks! !

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:41 am

This is crazy faster strengthening than Irma it seems. Can we exceed her wind intensity? We did her pressure I believe. Pr i just dunno what to say. I have so many friends co-workers with families there or their own vacation dwellings.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Dtone on Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:12 am

The radar went out just before landfall.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:36 am

The 500mb pattern is quite telling to why we're seeing tropical systems track close to our coast. High latitude blocking extends from the Arctic to Canada with a huge Atlantic High flat out dominating. I drew a green line to show how they're somewhat connected. The black circle is the area the hurricanes will get trapped in. Hence why Jose is forecasted to do another loop. This may be a case of 'too' much blocking for EC landfalls.


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:48 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The 500mb pattern is quite telling to why we're seeing tropical systems track close to our coast. High latitude blocking extends from the Arctic to Canada with a huge Atlantic High flat out dominating. I drew a green line to show how they're somewhat connected. The black circle is the area the hurricanes will get trapped in. Hence why Jose is forecasted to do another loop. This may be a case of 'too' much blocking for EC landfalls.


Same post


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:36 pm


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The 500mb pattern is quite telling to why we're seeing tropical systems track close to our coast. High latitude blocking extends from the Arctic to Canada with a huge Atlantic High flat out dominating. I drew a green line to show how they're somewhat connected. The black circle is the area the hurricanes will get trapped in. Hence why Jose is forecasted to do another loop. This may be a case of 'too' much blocking for EC landfalls.

So another close call with maria but unlikely landfall or significant impacts or way too early? Ha too much blocking haven't heard that one.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:05 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The 500mb pattern is quite telling to why we're seeing tropical systems track close to our coast. High latitude blocking extends from the Arctic to Canada with a huge Atlantic High flat out dominating. I drew a green line to show how they're somewhat connected. The black circle is the area the hurricanes will get trapped in. Hence why Jose is forecasted to do another loop. This may be a case of 'too' much blocking for EC landfalls.

So another close call with maria but unlikely landfall or significant impacts or way too early? Ha too much blocking haven't heard that one.

Just like Jose. Close but no cigar.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:15 pm



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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:26 pm

reports are saying all of PR is without power although some areas were still without from Irma
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:24 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Noooooooo lol don't suck me in
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:07 pm

Cranky WX guy (on Twitter) is concerned about the setup and potential impacts to the East Coast from Maria. Which means I'm concerned as well. Don't be so quick to poo-poo her. Basketball
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:49 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky WX guy (on Twitter) is concerned about the setup and potential impacts to the East Coast from Maria. Which means I'm concerned as well. Don't be so quick to poo-poo her. Basketball

Concur 100% as does Bernie Rayno who never says sure how at this range. This map is what he is talking about.


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:08 pm

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by billg315 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:27 pm

Rayno's point is well taken that if it is generally accepted that the 5-day hurricane track is off by about 200 miles, putting the storm 200 miles west puts it just about right on the east coast. Of course, it could be 200 mile east and way out to sea as well. But I wouldn't write it off for an east coast landfall, or close parallel track at this point by any means.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:29 pm

This is insane, good lord!!

San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz said that half the city is flooded.
"We’re looking at 4 to 6 months without electricity,” she said. 
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:46 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky WX guy (on Twitter) is concerned about the setup and potential impacts to the East Coast from Maria. Which means I'm concerned as well. Don't be so quick to poo-poo her. Basketball
I forsee a similar thread being made to that of Jose and we either get nothing or a glancing blow, if we get hit or any significant impacts I will be surprised but its not impossible.  If anything its more likely as BR said to be a carolina threat.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:This is insane, good lord!!

San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz said that half the city is flooded.
"We’re looking at 4 to 6 months without electricity,” she said. 

Heard that too, hopefully they get help from plenty of states here like they did with Houston
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Joe Snow on Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:01 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:This is insane, good lord!!

San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz said that half the city is flooded.
"We’re looking at 4 to 6 months without electricity,” she said. 

Heard that too, hopefully they get help from plenty of states here like they did with Houston

They are going to have to rebuild the entire power grid, it sucked to begin with........... Power will be off indefinitely.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by emokid51783 on Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:22 pm

Eye reformed quickly...

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:28 am



so she's back in action now
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:34 pm

12z GFS still OTS, though different 500mb solution as to why it goes OTS. 12z CMC coming in more NW as Jose has less an affect on Maria and the ridge builds between the two forcing it more west

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:52 pm

CMC back to NC landfall

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:55 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:CMC back to NC landfall

I'm hearing the NAVGEM is west as well, fwiw.
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