2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
CMC back to NC landfall
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Sanchize06 wrote:CMC back to NC landfall
I'm hearing the NAVGEM is west as well, fwiw.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
SoulSingMG wrote:Sanchize06 wrote:CMC back to NC landfall
I'm he aring the NAVGEM is west as well, fwiw.
I believe Navgem is ots
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
6z NAVGEM was very close to the coast, I don't have the full 12z run yet, only out to hr 60
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Just wrote this in another forum.
all modeling has a piece hold back and retrograde to the N GOM coast line. That is starting and is not unexpected. Here is is on the GFS:
Here is the difference on the CMC. Same idea happening, but the only difference is on the CMC Jose pulls out and the Atlantic and NE ridges bridge changing the steering flow towards the coast:
Vs the GFS:
Is the CMC idea plausable? Yes!! Is it likely at this point...probably not. Its this soln however, that prevents me from writing Maria off just yet. Next 3-4days will let us know what Jose is doing and if the ridge bridge idea holds any water.
all modeling has a piece hold back and retrograde to the N GOM coast line. That is starting and is not unexpected. Here is is on the GFS:
Here is the difference on the CMC. Same idea happening, but the only difference is on the CMC Jose pulls out and the Atlantic and NE ridges bridge changing the steering flow towards the coast:
Vs the GFS:
Is the CMC idea plausable? Yes!! Is it likely at this point...probably not. Its this soln however, that prevents me from writing Maria off just yet. Next 3-4days will let us know what Jose is doing and if the ridge bridge idea holds any water.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
All trop systems in the N Hemi eventually recurve to the N and E because they get caught in the westerlies. The Coriolis effect is whats responsible for that. General rule: Once a trop system begins the turn north the table tilts to the north and east such that if there is any weakness at all the spinning top(trop system) will more than likely fall towards the weakness unless blocked and or acted on by other influences. With Jose in the mix there just doesnt seem to be enough of a block over the Atlantic as currently modeled to prevent the recurve OTS through the weakness. I dont trust the CMC. We shall see
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
sroc4 wrote: All trop systems in the N Hemi eventually recurve to the N and E because they get caught in the westerlies. The Coriolis effect is whats responsible for that. General rule: Once a trop system begins the turn north the table tilts to the north and east such that if there is any weakness at all the spinning top(trop system) will more than likely fall towards the weakness unless blocked and or acted on by other influences. With Jose in the mix there just doesnt seem to be enough of a block over the Atlantic as currently modeled to prevent the recurve OTS through the weakness. I dont trust the CMC. We shall see
Agree. I don't see a pathway for this to come up here. I think either Jose draws it OTS or even if the bridge between the two builds and that forces it more NW, it's either drawn into NC or hits the high pressure up here and is forced slowly east. Still a pretty big difference at 500mb from the 6z and 12z GFS though, so I guess it's possible the setup can still change a bit
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Reason wehy they have landfalls is they get Jose out of the way. He is screwing this up royally for those who want some tropical action up here!
We wait till the weekend to see what is what.
If Jose does indeed rot out or moves east far enough away we have a monster trough coming through the mid section of the country and the ridge will rebuild over the top.
Not saying this will happen but IF he does indeed move out then OBX through NE needs to pay attention.
Otherwise she sails OTS.
We wait till the weekend to see what is what.
If Jose does indeed rot out or moves east far enough away we have a monster trough coming through the mid section of the country and the ridge will rebuild over the top.
Not saying this will happen but IF he does indeed move out then OBX through NE needs to pay attention.
Otherwise she sails OTS.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
At 938 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a band of torrential
rainfall over Nantucket associated with Jose, moving southwest
at 20 mph.
As of 930 pm, Nantucket Airport reported a storm total of 5.00
inches of rain.
dang alot rain
rainfall over Nantucket associated with Jose, moving southwest
at 20 mph.
As of 930 pm, Nantucket Airport reported a storm total of 5.00
inches of rain.
dang alot rain
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Maria looks to go safely OTS and not hit the U.S
The northeast has been teased by Irma ( few runs ), Jose and possibly Maria.
The northeast has been teased by Irma ( few runs ), Jose and possibly Maria.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
NHC'S cone has adjusted west.......
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I'm gonna need all y'all to WAKE UP. Please and thank you. #GEFSwayWest
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
SoulSingMG wrote:I'm gonna need all y'all to WAKE UP. Please and thank you. #GEFSwayWest
Yes and so is the Ukie. Need more support and a few more runs.
Remember trends for all hcanes this year have been more west as time goes on. If she gets to 73* then it gets very interesting for OBX - after that we need to see what all these moving parts do - troughs, HP's.
If this Meso Low/falre up featurepops off the coast of Fla then it makes things interesting from the trough over the SE which looks to be going N and not so POS from latest obs. SO the steering changes direction from a WSW to more S.
Effects on Maria ?? Time will tell.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
SoulSingMG wrote:I'm gonna need all y'all to WAKE UP. Please and thank you. #GEFSwayWest
did you see bernie rayno's video yesterday...he had some concerns..
https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/maria-and-the-us-coastline-next-week/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Yeah its west but I still think its ots. They will keep correcting
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
215PM FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for A Dam Failure in Isabela Municipality y Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico... #prwx
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Bernies new video today basically broke it down to how long the trough from the west takes to kick it ots. Mentions it's supposed to be Wednesday night. Longer trough takes, Maria moves closer to coast.
freezerburn- Posts : 16
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Interesting what Bernie says. He has been doing pretty gr8 this year and many others. But doesn't look like any effects would make it up here unless it might ssesthat trough and the second one pucks it up when it's far rnpugh be to skirk nj li coast.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
As I said in a post earlier that the meso low off FLA will take that trough from POS SW flow to a Neutral S flow and the strong HP over SE CAN in conjuction will bring her more west and draw her very close as JM said to OBX.
Once that HP slides off the coast as currently modelled aND fn weakens it allows the westerly to come in and push her away from us. What can happen is that the HP is delayed moving east, doesn't weaken as much or she speeds up.
BUT the cone has shifted west not doubt in a big way and ALL the top cyclones this year have shifted west in a big way.
It us a shame cause models from late later week had her coming up the coast by Monday which would have allowed strong HP to force her into the US mainland. That would have been cool to see.
More to come I am sure as per model shifts
Once that HP slides off the coast as currently modelled aND fn weakens it allows the westerly to come in and push her away from us. What can happen is that the HP is delayed moving east, doesn't weaken as much or she speeds up.
BUT the cone has shifted west not doubt in a big way and ALL the top cyclones this year have shifted west in a big way.
It us a shame cause models from late later week had her coming up the coast by Monday which would have allowed strong HP to force her into the US mainland. That would have been cool to see.
More to come I am sure as per model shifts
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
GFS hour 96 shows Maria approaching outer banks NC. Trough is a bit slower this run.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Gfs 96-138 Maria right off of nc before moving out to sea..euro the same... cmc seems to bring it up the cost brushing the shoreline before heading out..navgem heads out after its brush with nc. Jam rides up the coast more..all this tracking the last couple of weeks has ruined my sleep pattern with the kindle under the covers.... I am up every night...lol..hope you guys don't mind my untrained response to looking at models but I thought I would take a stab at commenting on what I see. Good night
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
weatherwatchermom wrote:Gfs 96-138 Maria right off of nc before moving out to sea..euro the same... cmc seems to bring it up the cost brushing the shoreline before heading out..navgem heads out after its brush with nc. Jam rides up the coast more..all this tracking the last couple of weeks has ruined my sleep pattern with the kindle under the covers.... I am up every night...lol..hope you guys don't mind my untrained response to looking at models but I thought I would take a stab at commenting on what I see. Good night
Much appreciated recap, WxwatchMom! :-)
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
weatherwatchermom wrote:Gfs 96-138 Maria right off of nc before moving out to sea..euro the same... cmc seems to bring it up the cost brushing the shoreline before heading out..navgem heads out after its brush with nc. Jam rides up the coast more..all this tracking the last couple of weeks has ruined my sleep pattern with the kindle under the covers.... I am up every night...lol..hope you guys don't mind my untrained response to looking at models but I thought I would take a stab at commenting on what I see. Good night
Much appreciated MOMMA and u think your sleep are funky now, wait till winter mid Nov onward through early Jan!!!
Eps saying NC/VA landfall possibility. Trough slower nuts like u said a tad weaker. Raynor nailing this!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
18z GFS says watchout NC, My eye is getting very close to obx before jetting straight east, kinda a odd track, does she have any chance of coming further north or will that ridge completely block her?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:18z GFS says watchout NC, My eye is getting very close to obx before jetting straight east, kinda a odd track, does she have any chance of coming further north or will that ridge completely block her?
That's bc the trough kicks it east if that trough is slower maybe it comes north
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
That looks north and west
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