Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:14 pm

UKMET looks like GFS. Maybe a hair west.

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jimv45 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:19 pm

looks to be like a Nor'easter that can still cause damage along coast, but we seen many of these.

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:20 pm

Frank you have windfield map of cmc since I can't see on cmc. Precip looks like could b heavy at times on cmc.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:38 pm


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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:46 pm

NAVY CRUSGES THE COAST !!

Also this is going extra tropical once it hits the colder waters at about 45* which will make the percip and wind field grow.

The is teh GFS - that is one windy set up if yuo ask me!!

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by carbomb31 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:CMC



Is that west of 00z? I can't compare as tt frozen.

Looks east to me

carbomb31 wrote:Franks any change to ur thoughts or still feel this will just skirt the coast?  Southern Monmouth county guy asking

Still thinking no landfall. Will come close enough to bring some impact. Heavy rain, wind, beach erosion. Typical Fall Nor'easter I guess you can say. But stronger. We'll see exactly how close he gets.

ur a genlteman thanks Frank!

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:55 pm


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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by frank 638 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:13 pm

National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:14 pm

Through 84 euro a little east and a tad less ridge to the NE compared to 00z. Lets see how it finishes up

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:23 pm

EURO is close - Stalls it then it pushes east with the trough hmmmm

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:28 pm



This made a jog west from yesterday 12 Z

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:39 pm

amugs wrote:

This made a jog west from yesterday 12 Z

South of the DelMarVa latitude 12z Euro today is a tad east of 00z, but north of that they pretty much are exactly the same and end up in the same position.  A def consensus  is forming on the track but with still 4-5days until impacting the area there is still a cone of uncertainty of at least 50-75miles each way.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:48 pm

WTH??? 2 canes in the east coast


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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:50 pm

Looks like a FujiWhara dance between Jose and Lee going to happen after 204 hr on the euro

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 11th = coating
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Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
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Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:51 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:

This made a jog west from yesterday 12 Z

South of the DelMarVa latitude 12z Euro today is a tad east of 00z, but north of that they pretty much are exactly the same and end up in the same position.  A def consensus  is forming on the track but with still 4-5days until impacting the area there is still a cone of uncertainty of at least 50-75miles each way.
Still possible landfall or just close at this pt? My local forecast also says ts conditions possible Tues. Nhc has briefings put already for area.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:54 pm

sroc4 wrote:Looks like a FujiWhara dance between Jose and Lee going to happen after 204 hr on the euro
Rb did elude to a dangerous ec threat from Lee with the setup. I.mean it's like rapid fire tropical systems lol. I'm only follow one at a time plus possible Lee way to far out.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jwalsh on Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:17 pm

Recon is finding 68 kt winds at the surface
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:34 pm

frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions. I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds. Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter. Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:37 pm

Hurricane Jose at 5:00pm. 75mph
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:53 pm

Is the 18z NAM not even running? lol No idea what's going on with these models today

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:12 pm

18z full run out. West of 12z close to obx huge.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:15 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
You never know syo it's still 5 days out of course NYC go play it calm it's way too early. I'm surprised they even saying thst. But yes also winter yay.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by algae888 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:21 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:25 pm

algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes
Huh no chance? I recall having been in quite a few. All up here. Rare yes. No chance not true.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by algae888 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes
Huh no chance? I recall having been in quite a few. All up here. Rare yes. No chance not true.
Come on John you know what I mean I'm talking about storms that impact our area hurricanes. That's probably less than 1% chance of that happening here. Tropical storms we have them every year many in fact only thing we call them nor'easters
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