Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Page 6 of 21 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 13 ... 21  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:33 pm

algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes
Huh no chance? I recall having been in quite a few. All up here. Rare yes. No chance not true.
Come on John you know what I mean I'm talking about storms that impact our area hurricanes. That's probably less than 1% chance of that happening here. Tropical storms we have them every year many in fact only thing we call them nor'easters
Yes but 1%? in my 36 yrs I've been through Gloria Bob Floyd Irene and Sandy. Maybe others I don't recall. I can't do the math but I doubt it's as low as 1% now if u mean direct landfall yes cuz most of those did not landfall in NYC except Irene. I do far more like tracking snowstorms cuz all you guys make it exciting and verifies much more often as u said. Here's hoping a great winter.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13063
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:46 pm

The NAM and SREFs are absurd lol about all I can say. Monsters. Every single one. How much credibility? No idea. I can say, though, that I didn't "like" (note the use of "") today's runs for my idea of a landfall near the region, though I don't think it would be wise to start thinking it's off the table......yet. Another nail-biting fiasco of a forecast :/ does seem to be a consensus, but as stated earlier, plenty of time for wiggles 100 miles or, maybe more, to either side. Five days is a longggggggg time lmao how many snowstorms, Lord, forgive my blasphemy, have we missed when they were a lock five days out? Likewise, how many surprises have we gotten when we thought all hope was lost? It's agonizing, but unfortunately, it's also part of the game aha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 3593
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 25
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:46 pm

Slightly west and stronger thru hr 54 so far compared to 12z. Ridge a little stronger this run

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by algae888 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:50 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:National weather service for Tuesday has tropical storm conditions for NYC

"Possible" tropical storm conditions.  I read the NHC briefing for our area. 1-2" of rain (maximum way east) possible and 30-40 mph winds.  Sounds like another 10 days tracking a moderate at best nor-Easter.  Evil or Very Mad No Winter can't come soon enough.  
I couldn't agree more James unless there's a direct landfall near our area this is a big yawn think about it 13 tropical systems this year zero impact for our area. Bring on winter at least we have a chance there there's no chance with hurricanes
Huh no chance? I recall having been in quite a few. All up here. Rare yes. No chance not true.
Come on John you know what I mean I'm talking about storms that impact our area hurricanes. That's probably less than 1% chance of that happening here. Tropical storms we have them every year many in fact only thing we call them nor'easters
Yes but 1%? in my 36 yrs I've been through Gloria Bob Floyd that destructed my life Irene and Sandy. Maybe others I don't recall. I can't do the math but I doubt it's as low as 1% now if u mean direct landfall yes cuz most of those did not landfall in NYC except Irene. I do far more like tracking snowstorms cuz all you guys make it exciting and verifies much more often as u said. Here's hoping a great winter.
The only hurricane that was impactful in disrupting my life was Sandy. There have been numerous other systems without names that have done more damage then most of those hurricanes you just listed. Thunderstorms that tore shingles off my roof flooded highways and the Nor'easter back in 2006 I believe in October over 10 inches of rain flooded my basement up to my chest to name a few. $10,000 in damage. Those I remember. The thing about hurricanes is that you need the Direct Hit to cause the damage for the most part. At least up here in the Northeast. Obviously Sandy was different but that's once in a lifetime storm that's why I said 1% because that's probably not happening again in our lifetime. Not here New York City
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4277
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 55
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 pm

West a bit through 72
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2538
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)/ Binghamton, NY (Binghamton University)-Broome County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:58 pm

Stronger and west at hr 90


Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:00 pm

96


Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:14 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:96


If I saw this frame in January with a storm in that location at that strength I would orgasm.
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 2268
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 45
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:15 pm

Yep gfs back west ahaha. Rb thats a bit concerning those models all show bad hits. But ur right 4 to 5 days out def no lock.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13063
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:19 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:96


If I saw this frame in January with a storm in that location at that strength I would orgasm.  

Yeah lets hope we have this kind of blocking for the winter lol

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:58 pm

18z GEFS coming in very much to the west


Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:02 pm




Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:27 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:96


If I saw this frame in January with a storm in that location at that strength I would orgasm.  
Can't argue that one bit but woah family friendly here lol
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13063
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:28 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:

Holy smokes slot those look like landfall.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13063
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:

Holy smokes slot those look like landfall.

It's as far west as I've seen that many members be. 0z runs should be really interesting tonight

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:48 pm


Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:03 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:
Jeeze a look! Things could b a bit more interesting if these verified.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13063
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:27 pm

We have an eye!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8384
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:43 pm

amugs wrote:We have an eye!!
Still looks sheared on left side, but maybe trying to gain a little since there is a eye seem to be forming albeit tiny.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13063
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:We have an eye!!
Still looks sheared on left side, but maybe trying to gain a little since there is a eye seem to be forming albeit tiny.

There's some dry air on the west side. Decent convection firing around the center though. We will see if he ingests some of that dry air overnight o if he is able to mix it out.


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4757
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:04 pm

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14304&y=5232&z=2&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=8&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4757
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:07 pm

18z NAVGEM


Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:18 pm

Okay set aside his numerous name errors and statement a escape to the "west" this is pretty good, he is concerned from jersey shore to cape cod, and if the trough leaves Jose behind then he has a chance at making that bizarre look back to the coast.  Def will be interesting to track this, wish I had one more week off from start the new job as Monday I am going to be incredibly busy but I will be in on the evenings and IF I can get a chance I will go on my phone.  But you will likely be seeing less posts from me just so you know where I am lol

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/jose-to-threaten-east-coast-next-week/yybjrwyze6phmdtard_njml9zqsbqmdj?SearchForm-input=jose%20to%20threaten%20east%20coast%20next%20week
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13063
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:19 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM

Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13063
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:21 pm

Jpose is now at 80mph, NHC took jersey coast out of cone and has everything shifted east, prolly will shift back west again, maybe even again east after that lol i swear the cone changes more than the models.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13063
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 21 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 13 ... 21  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum