Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Jpose is now at 80mph, NHC took jersey coast out of cone and has everything shifted east, prolly will shift back west again, maybe even again east after that lol i swear the cone changes more than the models.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
NAVGEM landfall western LI and NYC area, wow, if this starts with the other models...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Wow and then he stalls over LI after this frame, well jeeze
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
jmanley32 wrote:Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM
Yeah, the NAVGEM has been very consistent on this track
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
NAVGEM most intense winds start impacting Tues midday, and last nearly 24 hrs though weakening as he travels into land!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Didn't Rb (btw where are ya!) say he liked the NAVGEM track to fit his thinking? NHC says TS watches may go up for parts of the EC starting tomorrow.Sanchize06 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM
Yeah, the NAVGEM has been very consistent on this track
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
jmanley32 wrote:Didn't Rb (btw where are ya!) say he liked the NAVGEM track to fit his thinking? NHC says TS watches may go up for parts of the EC starting tomorrow.Sanchize06 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM
Yeah, the NAVGEM has been very consistent on this track
That track does look similar to what I believe he thinks may happen
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
hr 36 00z gfs nearly identical to 18z.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
GFS very similar to 18z at hr 42. Maybe a tad west and a tad stronger ridge. If that holds, expect another close track to the Jersey Shore/LI
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
However if this were the case those watches may need toi be hurricane watches depending on intensity, remember they now still issue both TS and hurricane advisories even if subtropical since the change in 2012.Sanchize06 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Didn't Rb (btw where are ya!) say he liked the NAVGEM track to fit his thinking? NHC says TS watches may go up for parts of the EC starting tomorrow.Sanchize06 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM
Yeah, the NAVGEM has been very consistent on this track
That track does look similar to what I believe he thinks may happen
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Hr 48 SW of 18z, tad slower seems.  What will  a shower track mean in the long run?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Oh this run looks like it'll be west of 18z and that was pretty far west
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Oh boy this might just make landfall no escape!! Moving NNW.
This sucker is intense.
This sucker is intense.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Hr 72 jogged NNe, maybe a blip lets see the HP is 1031mb not gonna break that.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
jmanley32 wrote:Hr 72 jogged NNe, maybe a blip lets see the HP is 1031mb not gonna break that.
Yeah that was a bit of a weird jump, but with the strong blocking still should start going back NNW
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
HR 84-96 should be telling. Should move NNW though with even a stronger ridge out east, going to be close to the coast here, possible LI landfall
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Here he comes, going due north does he jog NW,like 18z?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
This is still very close
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Wha? NE at 96, he found a escape? much further south when it starts to turn NE than 18z, still wobbles going to happen its still 4 days out.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Somehow this run doesn't end up west of 18z, feel like it should have been closer given previous runs
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Hr 48 CMC is SE of 12z
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
CMC comes in west
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
CMC shifted way west
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017091600&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=463
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017091600&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=463
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
Ukie shifted west and very similiar to the GFS
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?
GEFS is west of op
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