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Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:19 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_18
Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:21 pm

Jpose is now at 80mph, NHC took jersey coast out of cone and has everything shifted east, prolly will shift back west again, maybe even again east after that lol i swear the cone changes more than the models.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:23 pm

NAVGEM landfall western LI and NYC area, wow, if this starts with the other models...

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Navgem10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:25 pm

Wow and then he stalls over LI after this frame, well jeeze


Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Navgem11
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_18
Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.

Yeah, the NAVGEM has been very consistent on this track

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:28 pm

NAVGEM most intense winds start impacting Tues midday, and last nearly 24 hrs though weakening as he travels into land!

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Navgem12
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:30 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_18
Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.

Yeah, the NAVGEM has been very consistent on this track
Didn't Rb (btw where are ya!) say he liked the NAVGEM track to fit his thinking? NHC says TS watches may go up for parts of the EC starting tomorrow.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:38 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_18
Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.

Yeah, the NAVGEM has been very consistent on this track
Didn't Rb (btw where are ya!) say he liked the NAVGEM track to fit his thinking? NHC says TS watches may go up for parts of the EC starting tomorrow.

That track does look similar to what I believe he thinks may happen

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:39 pm

hr 36 00z gfs nearly identical to 18z.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:41 pm

GFS very similar to 18z at hr 42. Maybe a tad west and a tad stronger ridge. If that holds, expect another close track to the Jersey Shore/LI

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:41 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:18z NAVGEM

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_18
Oy vey, thats really flirting with a landfall.

Yeah, the NAVGEM has been very consistent on this track
Didn't Rb (btw where are ya!) say he liked the NAVGEM track to fit his thinking? NHC says TS watches may go up for parts of the EC starting tomorrow.

That track does look similar to what I believe he thinks may happen
However if this were the case those watches may need toi be hurricane watches depending on intensity, remember they now still issue both TS and hurricane advisories even if subtropical since the change in 2012.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:42 pm

Hr 48 SW of 18z, tad slower seems.  What will  a shower track mean in the long run?
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:46 pm

Oh this run looks like it'll be west of 18z and that was pretty far west

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:46 pm

Oh boy this might just make landfall no escape!! Moving NNW.

This sucker is intense.


Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Gfs_ms25
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:48 pm

Hr 72 jogged NNe, maybe a blip lets see the HP is 1031mb not gonna break that.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:50 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Hr 72 jogged NNe, maybe a blip lets see the HP is 1031mb not gonna break that.

Yeah that was a bit of a weird jump, but with the strong blocking still should start going back NNW

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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:53 pm

HR 84-96 should be telling. Should move NNW though with even a stronger ridge out east, going to be close to the coast here, possible LI landfall

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:53 pm

Here he comes, going due north does he jog NW,like 18z?

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Gfs_ms26
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:56 pm

Woah...

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Gfs_ms27
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Post by Snow88 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:56 pm

This is still very close
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:57 pm

Wha? NE at 96, he found a escape? much further south when it starts to turn NE than 18z, still wobbles going to happen its still 4 days out.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:58 pm

Somehow this run doesn't end up west of 18z, feel like it should have been closer given previous runs

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:00 am

Hr 48 CMC is SE of 12z
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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:06 am

CMC comes in west

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Gem_mslp_wind_us_15

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 7 Gem_mslp_wind_us_16

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Post by Snow88 Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:09 am

CMC shifted way west
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017091600&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=463
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Post by Snow88 Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:27 am

Ukie shifted west and very similiar to the GFS
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Post by Snow88 Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:03 am

GEFS is west of op
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