Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:32 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Answer: Nay

what's the question? Shocked
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:05 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Answer: Nay

what's the question? Shocked

It's implied in the title of the thread

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by rb924119 on Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:13 pm

Good call, Frank, Scott, and Al(gae)!!! I was too aggressive with the Atlantic ridge and my assumption of it turning out stronger than modeled to keep Jose stuck on a northward track longer. Well done!!! I'm going to take a couple days off now and catch up on some much needed sleep aha three and four hours of sleep a night working 10-13 hour days is rough ahaha Then maybe I'll start watching Maria lol If nothing else, though, this is a GREAT pre-season in getting us all prepared for winter ahahaha Track on dudes and dudettes!!!!

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Snow88 on Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:21 pm

rb924119 wrote:Good call, Frank, Scott, and Al(gae)!!! I was too aggressive with the Atlantic ridge and my assumption of it turning out stronger than modeled to keep Jose stuck on a northward track longer. Well done!!! I'm going to take a couple days off now and catch up on some much needed sleep aha three and four hours of sleep a night working 10-13 hour days is rough ahaha Then maybe I'll start watching Maria lol If nothing else, though, this is a GREAT pre-season in getting us all prepared for winter ahahaha Track on dudes and dudettes!!!!

I lost so much sleep tracking Irma and JOse Shocked
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:39 pm

rb924119 wrote:Good call, Frank, Scott, and Al(gae)!!! I was too aggressive with the Atlantic ridge and my assumption of it turning out stronger than modeled to keep Jose stuck on a northward track longer. Well done!!! I'm going to take a couple days off now and catch up on some much needed sleep aha three and four hours of sleep a night working 10-13 hour days is rough ahaha Then maybe I'll start watching Maria lol If nothing else, though, this is a GREAT pre-season in getting us all prepared for winter ahahaha Track on dudes and dudettes!!!!

Yup great call guys. Model guidance was all over.
Should have realized the WAR has been over modelled greatly this summer and this is what the Ukie and its counterpart the EURO showed.
GFS never bit, trop models too.
Lessons learned.
Never expected a hcane BUT thought extratropical storm would be in the cards for the area.

Onto Maria

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:23 pm

Snow88 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Good call, Frank, Scott, and Al(gae)!!! I was too aggressive with the Atlantic ridge and my assumption of it turning out stronger than modeled to keep Jose stuck on a northward track longer. Well done!!! I'm going to take a couple days off now and catch up on some much needed sleep aha three and four hours of sleep a night working 10-13 hour days is rough ahaha Then maybe I'll start watching Maria lol If nothing else, though, this is a GREAT pre-season in getting us all prepared for winter ahahaha Track on dudes and dudettes!!!!

I lost so much sleep tracking Irma and JOse Shocked

look at it as conditioning for the winter season...Smile
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Snow88 on Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:45 pm

Fujiwara in effect on the Euro.

Maria goes OTS and Jose pays the coast another visit

Euro keeps Jose strong again. Weird run.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:50 pm

Snow88 wrote:Fujiwara in effect on the Euro.

Maria goes OTS and Jose pays the coast another visit

Euro keeps Jose strong again. Weird run.

No way, Jose! GO awayyyy!
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:43 pm

I'm done lol.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jwalsh on Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:54 pm

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by frank 638 on Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:07 pm

The stone must be driving everyone crazy anyway are we going to see any rain from Jose tomorrow for NYC or nothing

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:59 pm

Okay, was Jose progged to stall? This is the current situation....will this cause changes?
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:45 am

Helluva storm this Jose. WOW!!!! 10 more days of tracking for a little breeze and some showers Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Sad

2 big takeaways/lessons for me

1. If Frank and Scott are absent from most of the conversations going on in a thread then IT's NOT A THREAT. I should have known better

2. You can still golf during a hurricane
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:48 am

syosnow94 wrote:Helluva storm this Jose. WOW!!!!  10 more days of tracking for a little breeze and some showers Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Sad

2 big takeaways/lessons for me

1.  If Frank and Scott are absent from most of the conversations going on in a thread then IT's NOT A THREAT.  I should have known better

2.  You can still golf during a hurricane

Laughing Laughing Laughing  right now the sun is trying to  come out here.. it is breezy... but it did make the time pass(we are 10 days closer to winter), we had some good conversations!!


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:11 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:07 am

Jose's bands of rain/showers.





Interesting write up
Jose is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
(500 km). A ship
located more than 200 miles southwest of the center of Jose
recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h), and NOAA
Buoy 44014, located east of the Virginia-North Carolina border or
about 160 miles west of the center, also reported a sustained wind
of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 973 mb (28.68 inches).


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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by rb924119 on Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:06 am

Yeah, while my track wasn't too far off from what I settled on (especially at the range I settled on it) in the grand scheme of things, only missing landfall by about 100 miles, with regard to sensible weather it was a tremendous bust on my end. I sincerely apologize to you all. That's two storms this season where geographically and intensity-wise I would grade my forecasts in the "B" range (averaged between the no-named system I thought would be Irma, and Jose), my sensible aspects of the no-named system and Jose were definitely in "D" to "F" range, making my overall grade a low"C"/high "D" for these two. Absolutely abysmal.

Not to mitigate my poor performance, but until this season I've never tracked a full tropical season, so it definitely highlights my weaknesses as a forecaster; specifically, giving climatological factors much more creedance than I have been when it comes to the tropics. Hindsight is 20/20, but I believe if I had done that in combination with my analytical skills, my results with these two particular systems would have been much better, as just my analytical skills have gotten within an average of ~150 miles from 10+ days out with the four storms I've actually issued tracks for. Lessons learned, which is what counts in the end if your pursuit is to become better. Now to start working on these weaknesses, and refining my new tropical forecasting approach......after my hiatus, of course lmao

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Mathgod55 on Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:11 am

So when can we expect the turn to the northeast or are we in for a surprise.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:19 am

are we going to get any rain???...crap..told my son not to bring his track stuff to school....lesson learned!
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:53 am

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, while my track wasn't too far off from what I settled on (especially at the range I settled on it) in the grand scheme of things, only missing landfall by about 100 miles, with regard to sensible weather it was a tremendous bust on my end. I sincerely apologize to you all. That's two storms this season where geographically and intensity-wise I would grade my forecasts in the "B" range (averaged between the no-named system I thought would be Irma, and Jose), my sensible aspects of the no-named system and Jose were definitely in "D" to "F" range, making my overall grade a low"C"/high "D" for these two. Absolutely abysmal.

Not to mitigate my poor performance, but until this season I've never tracked a full tropical season, so it definitely highlights my weaknesses as a forecaster; specifically, giving climatological factors much more creedance than I have been when it comes to the tropics. Hindsight is 20/20, but I believe if I had done that in combination with my analytical skills, my results with these two particular systems would have been much better, as just my analytical skills have gotten within an average of ~150 miles from 10+ days out with the four storms I've actually issued tracks for. Lessons learned, which is what counts in the end if your pursuit is to become better. Now to start working on these weaknesses, and refining my new tropical forecasting approach......after my hiatus, of course lmao

Apologize for what? It's weather kid. At least you have the balls to make a call. I respect that
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:27 am

Looks like Jose continues to move NNW, definitely a bit west of guidance, but would assume it'll start moving more NNE or NE soon


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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:18 pm

Belmar pier damaged water up to point beach boardwalk
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:44 pm

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, while my track wasn't too far off from what I settled on (especially at the range I settled on it) in the grand scheme of things, only missing landfall by about 100 miles, with regard to sensible weather it was a tremendous bust on my end. I sincerely apologize to you all. That's two storms this season where geographically and intensity-wise I would grade my forecasts in the "B" range (averaged between the no-named system I thought would be Irma, and Jose), my sensible aspects of the no-named system and Jose were definitely in "D" to "F" range, making my overall grade a low"C"/high "D" for these two. Absolutely abysmal.

Not to mitigate my poor performance, but until this season I've never tracked a full tropical season, so it definitely highlights my weaknesses as a forecaster; specifically, giving climatological factors much more creedance than I have been when it comes to the tropics. Hindsight is 20/20, but I believe if I had done that in combination with my analytical skills, my results with these two particular systems would have been much better, as just my analytical skills have gotten within an average of ~150 miles from 10+ days out with the four storms I've actually issued tracks for. Lessons learned, which is what counts in the end if your pursuit is to become better. Now to start working on these weaknesses, and refining my new tropical forecasting approach......after my hiatus, of course lmao

Why are you grading yourself..one should always reflect and then move on.dont put yourself down...you did a great job..did you learn from this experience ...will you use what you learned from this this in future...that's what matters!!!
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:46 pm

[quote="skinsfan1177"]Belmar pier damaged water up to point beach boardwalk[/quot

It looked bad yesterday can't imagine today
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:07 pm

I'm not gonna lie. It's nice out!
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by RJB8525 on Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:08 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Belmar pier damaged water up to point beach boardwalk

saw the report on chan 7, looked like crap down there
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

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