Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

UKMET

Cmc has a huge swath of ts winds way inland. A lot of rain. Nearly identical to gfs. Bad news coming closer this shoes early Tues am.

6z NAVGEM holds from 0z, NJ landfall

NJ is now in the cone.(5 am update)

rb924119 wrote:CFSV2 correcting way west in recent runs, with the most recent showing a split between GFS-type and UKMET-type solutions. They all were well off shore yesterday and before. Interesting, if nothing else.

Rb you are going to nail this kid - all guidance coming around to yuor call - UKIE is dead on so is NAVY!!



NAVY would be destructive in a big way for teh coasts days of Trop force onshore winds!!

From NHC 5:00 am Jose forecast Discussion.

"the global models are coming into better
agreement on the track of Jose. The UKMET is now more in line with
the other models in keeping the center of Jose offshore of the U.S.
That said, the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs show a farther west
track, so the official track forecast has been shifted about 30 n mi
in that direction."

2. "Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days."

syosnow94 wrote:From NHC 5:00 am Jose forecast Discussion.

"the global models are coming into better
agreement on the track of Jose. The UKMET is now more in line with
the other models in keeping the center of Jose offshore of the U.S.
That said, the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs show a farther west
track, so the official track forecast has been shifted about 30 n mi
in that direction."

2. "Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur.  Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days."

Oh boy now the nhc has their attention up. Recon missions today. We will see if that helps with anything.

It is definitely looking more likely than not at this point we will see some impact from Jose. How great the impact remains to be seen. The trough coming through the western U.S. is pushing the Great Lakes ridge North & East and depending on the timing - it tries to trap Jose off our coast. As mentioned yesterday there is another ridge in the Atlantic on his South & East side, so Jose has little room to wiggle out of. Anywhere from a NJ to LI landfall is on the table, but I am still not as confident he actually makes landfall. Today should be an interesting day of model runs considering Jose is inside the 4-5 day window.

YIKES!!

amugs wrote:YIKES!!

What model is that? Wow every ensemble in the area wow. Do any make landfall?

12z tropical models look east of 06z

Frank_Wx wrote:It is definitely looking more likely than not at this point we will see some impact from Jose. How great the impact remains to be seen. The trough coming through the western U.S. is pushing the Great Lakes ridge North & East and depending on the timing - it tries to trap Jose off our coast. As mentioned yesterday there is another ridge in the Atlantic on his South & East side, so Jose has little room to wiggle out of. Anywhere from a NJ to LI landfall is on the table, but I am still not as confident he actually makes landfall. Today should be an interesting day of model runs considering Jose is inside the 4-5 day window.

Frank,

Landfall absolutely up in the air but if he gets close enough to the coast the effects will be be substantial imho - he may even transition to extra tropical as he gets up here from what I am seeing so far. This would expand his wind shield greatly . Time remains to be seen in teh next 48 hours.
One thing for sure I have told family and friends at the shore this morning to get their plans together just in case.

6Z GEFS

amugs wrote:6Z GEFS

Wow look at that clcluster of 960 to 970 mb Jose hitting nj. Would put NYC and east on east side not good. Still many ots but that western cluster has continued to grow in members.

amugs wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:It is definitely looking more likely than not at this point we will see some impact from Jose. How great the impact remains to be seen. The trough coming through the western U.S. is pushing the Great Lakes ridge North & East and depending on the timing - it tries to trap Jose off our coast. As mentioned yesterday there is another ridge in the Atlantic on his South & East side, so Jose has little room to wiggle out of. Anywhere from a NJ to LI landfall is on the table, but I am still not as confident he actually makes landfall. Today should be an interesting day of model runs considering Jose is inside the 4-5 day window.

Frank,

Landfall absolutely up in the air but if he gets close enough to the coast the effects will be be substantial imho - he may even transition to extra tropical as he gets up here from what I am seeing so far. This would expand his wind shield greatly . Time remains to be seen in teh next 48 hours.
One thing for sure I have told family and friends at the shore this morning to get their plans together just in case.

For the immediate coast I do think impacts can be substantial as well. It depends on the exact track. Does he come straight from the east? Or more South&East? I think that is a factor. We'll see what happens today. It's a very bizarre set-up which is one reason I can't get fully on board yet.

You can see on microwave imagery at the end of the loop Jose is getting its act together today as he moves into more favorable area for development (less shear) as seen by a more defined center at the end of the loop.  He is still over 28-29*C (82-84*F) SST. Plenty warm for further intensification in the next 24-48hrs.  I think peak intensity is Cat 2 for Jose but more likely strong Cat 1.  

Just wait until the media goes off and even more so any watches go up. Can u imagine the craziness a hurricane watch would bring. Get your shopping done this weekend just in case. Even if it's your normal shop no one wants get stuck in the store for hours.

sroc4 wrote:You can see on microwave imagery at the end of the loop Jose is getting its act together today as he moves into more favorable area for development (less shear) as seen by a more defined center at the end of the loop.  He is still over 28-29*C (82-84*F) SST.  Plenty warm for further intensification in the next 24-48hrs.  I think peak intensity is Cat 2 for Jose but more likely strong Cat 1.  

He def does look better even on ssttelite u posted. I'm think cat 2 just bc all intensity has been higher this season than forecasted.

Frank_Wx wrote:12z tropical models look east of 06z

I would not use these until we are within 24 hours - these complex set ups they cant handle and aren't programmed to especially up here .

12Z runs today of Ukie will be interesting - all models have corrected to the Ukie and Navgem so far.