Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:09 am

GEFS - WOW the cluster in SNJ at this time frame and those just inside the BM


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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:50 am

New moon Sept 20th to boot!

Current Time: Sep 15, 2017 at 10:50:09 am

Moon Phase Tonight: Waning Crescent

New Moon: Sep 20, 2017 at 1:29 am

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:53 am

CMC looking like UKIE
12Z suite will be interesting


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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:03 am

Recon is enroute. To see if a hurricane again.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:04 am

Nhc shifted cone now includes all of CT coastal nj nyc
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by hyde345 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:08 am

Looks to be getting it's act together on visible satellite with an eye trying to form. Should reach hurricane status by 5pm update.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:37 am

All globals are east
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:42 am

Ridge is a little weaker again on the GFS, will likely be east this run


Last edited by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:46 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jake732 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:42 am

Skinns is that a windshield wiper effect or that's the trend to head out to sea?
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jake732 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:44 am

And watch the euro be the one to come west:)
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:46 am

Probably just some wiper effect I don't think we are near final solution yet.bfew days still imo
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:58 am

am I looking at the gfs right is this a touch more north and east of this mornings run? out to 96?
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:03 pm



NOT A DIRECT HIT BUT ITS CLOSE





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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:06 pm

Well by hr 120 the blocking is much stronger to the north and east, so there might be a loop coming up on this run

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:09 pm

He gets captured this run.
Looks to be east to the gulf stream and then get tugged west.
If that rough comes in a few hours faster or is deeper he comes into the coast.

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:19 pm

Keep in mind GFS was east with Irma as well at this time frame. Euro has trended west up through 00z. UKIE likely over corrected itself, and expect it to come back west as well.

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:21 pm

Cmc looks about same so far.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:24 pm

Ridging seems stronger through 24 on the CMC, this run may come more west lol

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:47 pm

Why is that so slow.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:04 pm

CMC




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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:07 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:CMC



Is that west of 00z? I can't compare as tt frozen.
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by carbomb31 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:09 pm

Franks any change to ur thoughts or still feel this will just skirt the coast? Southern Monmouth county guy asking

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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:12 pm


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:13 pm

Screw this Jose dude!!! SHOW ME THE CMC HOUR 93 IN JANUARY PLEASE!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:CMC



Is that west of 00z? I can't compare as tt frozen.

Looks east to me

carbomb31 wrote:Franks any change to ur thoughts or still feel this will just skirt the coast?  Southern Monmouth county guy asking

Still thinking no landfall. Will come close enough to bring some impact. Heavy rain, wind, beach erosion. Typical Fall Nor'easter I guess you can say. But stronger. We'll see exactly how close he gets.

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