Long Range Thread 15.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:24 pm

It seems the EPS and GEFS are in agreement Thanksgiving week will feature a -NAO block. Not sure I remember the last time we saw this on a 500mb graphic. It will be interesting to see if a snowstorm can materialize from this pattern.


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:40 pm

EPS woof woof!!



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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:37 pm

From a long range professional forecaster wood woot!!

"There was a pretty widespread sentiment that most near our area from PHL to NYC would not reach average seasonal snowfall totals this winter and many further implied abnormally high confidence in just that playing out.

I say that's never been the case and looks less and less likely even, with each passing day. "

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:23 pm

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 6 days
2017 total: 74 days (23%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 07 Nov 2017

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:35 am

Euro Monthlies are out








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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:48 am

amugs wrote:Euro Monthlies are out







This upcoming winter has the look and feel of 2010 where the snows come in fast and furious the first half, then everything shuts off by February. I hope that's not the case;would like to see a more general long term winter pattern to evolve. Damn La Nina.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:13 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:Euro Monthlies are out







This upcoming winter has the look and feel of 2010 where the snows come in fast and furious the first half, then everything shuts off by February. I hope that's not the case;would like to see a more general long term winter pattern to evolve. Damn La Nina.

Nuts things are still evolving but I think as with 13-14 and 14-15 the cold air will be entrenched and feedback off of itself and we can get to mid feb and then spring - If we can get that or til beginning Feb I would not be upset for the pattern and set up that is in front of us. Even the King of 95-96 has a stretch in late jan that was warm but then it reloaded. Not saying this is what will happen but it is possible. March on the monthlies look good

Precip





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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:13 am

I have a new outlook on the next month or so. Turns out I had the answer the whole time, but failed to look at ALL the information. I got stuck in one spot. Hint: To find the answers as to the why you must look to the heavens. Remember there are pattern drivers and pattern enhancers. Write up coming before the end of the weekend.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:18 am

sroc4 wrote:I have a new outlook on the next month or so. Turns out I had the answer the whole time, but failed to look at ALL the information. I got stuck in one spot.  Hint: To find the answers as to the why you must look to the heavens.  Remember there are pattern drivers and pattern enhancers. Write up coming before the end of the weekend.

You are leaving the dark side oh great one??? God is directing you sir SROC in the right direction?

For some enticement going forward - if we have this come Dec an dinto Jan  BANG BANG it will rock lik eits 199 (9 well 5 -1995!!)


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:25 am

Waters S of Aleutians creating +PDO pocket??






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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:12 am

amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I have a new outlook on the next month or so. Turns out I had the answer the whole time, but failed to look at ALL the information. I got stuck in one spot.  Hint: To find the answers as to the why you must look to the heavens.  Remember there are pattern drivers and pattern enhancers. Write up coming before the end of the weekend.

You are leaving the dark side oh great one??? God is directing you sir SROC in the right direction?

For some enticement going forward - if we have this come Dec an dinto Jan  BANG BANG it will rock lik eits 199 (9 well 5 -1995!!)



Mugsy my friend I was never on the dark side.  I was simply hovering in the neutral zone doing my best to give unbiased info without my own personal wishes of cold and snow.  Oct was dead on.  End of Oct with the re curving typhoons, dead on.  The return to warmer temps for the first 1-2 weeks of Nov.  pretty much dead on.  I did think we would remain warmer a little while longer but again I Failed to look at all the info.  You can see the temps for CPK the first week of the month have been above normal by and large.  Graph courtesy of accuweather




Up until Nov the stratosphere has little to no influence on the pattern, but as we approach the end of Oct and early Nov very quickly it can become part of the equation.  There hasnt been an overwhelming SSWE or anything, but the strength, shape and positioning of the strat vortex is everything.  Like they say in realestate...location, location, location.  The main drivers to the pattern up through this time frame have been due to the base state of the weak La Nina forcings, and the amplified MJO impulses, but the main drivers, for at least the next several weeks seem to be shifting a little higher up in the atmosphere.  More detailed reasoning is coming.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:34 pm

The return to warmer temps for the first 1-2 weeks of Nov. pretty much dead on.

SROC for week 1 but today through Sunday we are BN and Saturday is going to be a complete reversal to like 20* BN and moving fwd it looks to keep us in the fall like chilly to cold regime look.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:03 pm

amugs wrote: The return to warmer temps for the first 1-2 weeks of Nov.  pretty much dead on.

SROC for week 1 but today through Sunday we are BN and Saturday is going to be a complete reversal to like 20* BN and moving fwd it looks to keep us in the fall like chilly to cold regime look.


Exactly Mugs.  I think it was back on the 18th when I said It would rebound back towards warmth the first 1-2weeks into Nov.  Thats why I said "pretty much" dead on.  I recognized the rebound but failed to recognize that the amplified MJO would have such a profound effect on the strat.  This wasnt a true SSWE by the strictest of definition, but as Tom points out was sufficient enough to shift the position and shape of the of the strat vortex such that it will sit centered over W Canada for at least the next several weeks if forecasts are correct.  This means that the coldest air in the world relative to avgs will be on our side of the northern hemisphere.  This is in stark contrast to last year when we had similar weak La Nina to neg neutral Trop Pac forcings but instead the strat vortex sat on the other side of the globe keepiong the coldest air trapped over asia.  

We actually had a decent SSWE in mid Nov and again end Nov/early Dec such that it gave us that it gave us early season snow to the NW around Thanksgiving, and even snow IMBY along the coast On Dec 11th and 17th, but after that time it re-consolidated and sat on the asian side of the N Hemisphere and that's pretty much where the strat vortex stayed from Jan through March preventing any real sustainable cold air intrusion or high lat blocking in the AO or NAO regions.  We had the -EPO and -WPO couplet, but it wasnt enough we needed the AO and or the NAO to cooperate but it didnt.  We watched as the coldest anomalies were over asia pretty much throughout the winter months.  

Now like Tom siad will this current shift in positioning of the strat vortex remain on our side and weak enough to sustain this throughout the rest of the season or are we going to get into mid december and see it all go back?

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:32 pm

SROC - part of this I believe is LOW AAM, LOW SOLAR and the build up of SNOW in Canada along with the low to non existent PAC Jet Streak as we confounded last year.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by docstox12 on Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:32 am


sroc4 wrote:I have a new outlook on the next month or so. Turns out I had the answer the whole time, but failed to look at ALL the information. I got stuck in one spot.  Hint: To find the answers as to the why you must look to the heavens.  Remember there are pattern drivers and pattern enhancers. Write up coming before the end of the weekend.

Here's Doc watching the skies, with the rest of the NJ Strong Long Range Crew behind him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKBCvo-qGnk

I am thoroughly enjoying these meteorological discussions from the NJ Strong Family and am very excited about the possibilities going forward.A welcome change from a month ago when we were in an October that was absolutely horrible for people like myself who love a Fall with numerous cold spells and blazing Fall colors.Carry on Gentleman!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:55 am

WOW at today's 12z GFS day 9 through day 12 closed low right over the area just sits and Spins for days first snowfall of the Season verbatim on today's run. Could be our first system to track this late fall-early winter season and very much possible with a negative 3 deviation of the Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:25 pm

We get that system next weekend early next week we get the wave break for the NAO and it will entrench itself as it feeds back off of itself with risimg heights over thenpole.and thedeep.layer of snowpack over OOOHHHH CANADA ! It becomes a loop in and onto itslf.
Low.solar and great N QBO doing some Nasty business for us. Also the temp of the waters just south of the Aleutian Islands is quite interesting in my opinion which would and I believe will aid in our coldness as we move forward. EPO region


AO saying HEY YO!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:03 pm

GEFS SAY GET DA F OUTTA HERE WITH THIS. THIS IS SICK FOR NOV!!
NE gets buried and we see a few snow chances!



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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:29 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS SAY GET DA F OUTTA HERE WITH THIS. THIS IS SICK FOR NOV!!
NE gets buried and we see a few snow chances!


Yes mugs the polar vortex will be displaced over North West Canada and Alaska. It is then forecast  to split and a piece is going to end up residing in the Northeast for some time. We could end up cold and dry if the trough is too far east. I would think our best chance for snow would be as the pattern relaxes towards the very end of the month into early December. we shall see it's just good to get the cold here that's the main ingredient for snow
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:41 am

Here are a couple of Tom's (Isotherm) posts from the Winter thread I am moving here. I am locking the other thread.

Isotherm wrote:A few inquiries to ponder:



[1] Are the geopotential height rises progged by model guidance over the NATL consistent with current hemispheric and global physical forcing mechanisms?



[2] If yes, are those forcing mechanisms indicative of an ephemeral pulse of favorability, or will they persist overall for the duration of the cold season?



[3] With respect to any seasonal guidance suggestive of a mean -NAO/AO pattern, what factors have or have not altered over the past year which would enable that guidance to verify? Conversely, concerning any seasonal guidance indicative of a mean +NAO/AO - are the variables which aided in inducing a stronger than normal vortex still present?



NAO prognostication is multifactorial, so it is important to examine all factors.



My opinion is that there is a legitimate phase change occurring, due in part to positive feedback with vortex weakening via wave 2 forcing, which, contemporaneously with poleward -AAM propagation and other top-down factors such as easterly shear stress, will permit a response in the troposphere. However, in the medium to longer term, the tropospheric pattern begins to evolve such that it projects more strongly onto a vortex intensification precursor. This will complicate matters down the road, specifically with regards to the extent to which the upcoming -NAO action center persists. That question will be parsed out as we get a little closer; let's first enter the medium range of block initiation.

Isotherm wrote:It appears to me that the upcoming NATL block initiation is due - at least in part - to the circum-global propagation of upper divergence associated with the prior MJO forcing. We recently had a robust phase 8 disturbance, which, while it weakened significantly into the COD on the CPC diagrams, one can still track the eastward propagation of the -VP through the Atlantic and into Africa October 30-Nov7th. This signal induces planetary wave propagation usually resulting in sufficient turbulence to influence the NAO modality approximately 7-10 days later - which, to no surprise, seems to be initiating circa the 13th-15th of November. The forcing for the -NAO is certainly there, but does it have the maintenance power of some of our impressive early blocking stretches such as 2010, 2009, 1995?

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:42 am

Next 15 days temperature anomalies - cold!




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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:44 am

That is one heck of a -WPO/-AO/-NAO showing in the long range on the Euro Ensembles. The GEFS also show it. We're heading into a colder than normal pattern but do not fall into the trap of thinking it's a favorable pattern for snowstorms. The PV is shown to be in western Canada and that is going to prevent the PNA from spiking. I do think the blocking, if it comes to fruition as modeled, will help form Miller B type system that could bring snow to the area. Thanksgiving week I do think odds are heightened for snow chances.


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:46 am

Now if the 00z EURO from last night is anywhere near right, then what I said above does not really apply. Granted I rather lean toward the Ensembles in the long range anyway, but the OP in the long range DOES show a PNA spike and an over-powering -WPO/-NAO ridges. This is the type of pattern that would give way to larger storms.


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:52 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Now if the 00z EURO from last night is anywhere near right, then what I said above does not really apply. Granted I rather lean toward the Ensembles in the long range anyway, but the OP in the long range DOES show a PNA spike and an over-powering -WPO/-NAO ridges. This is the type of pattern that would give way to larger storms.



That's like looking at soft porn

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:56 pm


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

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