Long Range Thread 15.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:32 pm

algae888 wrote:By the 11th of this month we should be below normal temp wise which is contrary to all lr guidance and lr forecasters. This is what a -epo/wpo can do with favorable mjo phases. If those features persist through winter we can expect some very cold periods which is unlike the last two winters
with today's almost -20* departures CP will be below normal. spot on. also this happened with a +AO and +NAO. -EPO/WPO driven which has been our primary cold source for the last several winters.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:42 pm

algae888 wrote:Scott all good. What I was looking at was negative wpo / EPO cold Canada eventually it bleeds into our area. Pattetn change from the + 7 we saw in October. I also think I've been pretty spot-on as we should be normal to slightly below normal by mid-month. Moving forward Post 10 day is getting giggity negative A O Negative Nao neutral PNA negative wpo if ensembles are correct. Also weak Nina with a very sharp gradient from east to west. With possible Dateline forcing. Throw in low solar negative Qbo I like what I'm seeing heading towards December.
this from a met from another board...I feel like we may see the MJO round the phases again maybe in early December? That could help boost the chances of maybe an early start to snow. Of course that's sticking my neck out..but something I am noticing. I think having this more east based allows for waves to propagate east at least to the dateline. Whereas a west based event with its cold water and easterlies would keep the waves at bay way in the maritime continent. Who knows..some of this is voodoo...but we should keep an eye on that


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Math23x7 on Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:12 pm

The tail end of the 12Z EURO OP/ENS suggest a coast-to-coast torch by the end of the month...

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by frank 638 on Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:29 pm

What does that mean we go back to above-normal Champion above-normal temperatures again

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:13 pm

While the EURO OP tries to warm things up again around Thanksgiving...its ensemble still keeps us colder than normal. The EPS do not really warm things up until very late in the month (after the 27th)


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Snow88 on Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:42 pm

Looks like all the models now have a storm before Turkey Day

Right now, it looks warm for our area but we have to see if the models correct the storm to the south with the block in place.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:10 pm

EPS says warm up ummmmm....... NO!!

Great look, N EPO/WPO, PNA Positive, NAO block



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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Snow88 on Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:50 pm

18z GEFS has the 2 inch line into NYC throughout the run with a lot of snow for inland areas and near the lakes region

I think we will all see some snow with this upcoming pattern
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by HectorO on Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:02 am

amugs wrote:EPS says warm up ummmmm....... NO!!

Great look, N EPO/WPO, PNA Positive, NAO block



Warm ups are always expected after a cold snap like this. I hope November saved something for December!
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:17 am

I actually still like the look of the pattern for the week of the 20th. I don't think you'll see a storm threat show up on the models until we're closer. The Ensembles remain consistent with showing a -WPO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO pattern and when you have that type of blocking in the upper atmosphere this time of year I think it leads to at least a couple of snow events, especially N&W of NYC and interior sections of the Northeast. There are several components to watch:

1. Will the -WPO ridge expand into EPO territory or does it retrograde and remain over the Aleutians / NPAC? 

2. Will the -NAO block be west or east-based? 

3. Does the PNA ridge, if there is one, amplify to connect with the AO/NAO ridging? 

Another case of where too much amplification, or too much of a good thing, could hurt us as this squashes storm threats to our south and east but gives interior sections a shot thanks to the northern pieces of upper energy rotating around the PV. The only way we're not cold is if storms track west of our area, but if the aforementioned signals are in place I don't see how many storms will be able to cut to our west. I would continue looking at ensembles until the OP's get a better grasp of the pattern. 

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:17 am

It will be nice to be colder than normal on Thanksgiving. If I recall, the last couple of years featured a mild one.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:44 am

Frank_Wx wrote:It will be nice to be colder than normal on Thanksgiving. If I recall, the last couple of years featured a mild one.
Starting the holiday banner early, not even a turkey day one lol right to Christmas or whatever else people celebrate LOL. The pattern is good for a storm but what I do not totally understand is how can it mean a storm will be there to follow the pattern? You guys seem pretty confident something will transpire, I know from past that a good pattern does not mean a storm. Yes warm Thanksgiving and balmy Christmas past few years, if it is cold I will actually be able to get into the holiday spirit.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:03 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:It will be nice to be colder than normal on Thanksgiving. If I recall, the last couple of years featured a mild one.
Starting the holiday banner early, not even  a turkey day one lol right to Christmas or whatever else people celebrate LOL.  The pattern is good for a storm but what I do not totally understand is how can it mean a storm will be there to follow the pattern?  You guys seem pretty confident something will transpire, I know from past that  a good pattern does not mean a storm.  Yes warm Thanksgiving and balmy Christmas past few years, if it is cold I will actually be able to get into the holiday spirit.  

Imagine it like a recipe Jman.  If your looking to make tortellini carbonara(Snow storm) as your end product you dont want ingredients for for a Tuna noodle casserole right?  In this case it is becoming clearer that we are at least in fact looking at the correct ingredients showing up laid out on the kitchen counter to make Tort Carb.  That said we have not quite yet began the actual cooking process yet seeing is that we are still 10days away.  Like any good recipe the quality of the ingredients, the amounts/proportions used, and the order for which they are put together is all very important in the final product.  So even with the right ingredients we still may not get what we want.  At least the correct ingredients (favorable 500mb pattern) are showing up.  Next step is to hopefully have them all come together the right way.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:45 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:It will be nice to be colder than normal on Thanksgiving. If I recall, the last couple of years featured a mild one.
Starting the holiday banner early, not even  a turkey day one lol right to Christmas or whatever else people celebrate LOL.  The pattern is good for a storm but what I do not totally understand is how can it mean a storm will be there to follow the pattern?  You guys seem pretty confident something will transpire, I know from past that  a good pattern does not mean a storm.  Yes warm Thanksgiving and balmy Christmas past few years, if it is cold I will actually be able to get into the holiday spirit.  

If the retail stores can set-up holiday decorations in August then I can change my banner in November! A good pattern does not mean there will be a storm, but you can't even think of a snowstorm without having a good pattern. So it's necessary we secure the cold first before we hunt down the snow. The storm, if there is one, may not show up on models until we're within 5 days of the event from happening.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:55 am

Today is 12z GFS has the storm day9 Wednesday into Thursday of next week.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:11 pm

Hector sorry bit if you keep that negative NE of Hawaii the trough shows up in the NE and cold regime continues.. Here is the set up. If the Negative breaks down in this pattern then you need to see the epo or ao/no couplet take over to help with the cold.

Here is a very good set up


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:21 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:It will be nice to be colder than normal on Thanksgiving. If I recall, the last couple of years featured a mild one.
Starting the holiday banner early, not even  a turkey day one lol right to Christmas or whatever else people celebrate LOL.  The pattern is good for a storm but what I do not totally understand is how can it mean a storm will be there to follow the pattern?  You guys seem pretty confident something will transpire, I know from past that  a good pattern does not mean a storm.  Yes warm Thanksgiving and balmy Christmas past few years, if it is cold I will actually be able to get into the holiday spirit.  

If the retail stores can set-up holiday decorations in August then I can change my banner in November! A good pattern does not mean there will be a storm, but you can't even think of a snowstorm without having a good pattern. So it's necessary we secure the cold first before we hunt down the snow. The storm, if there is one, may not show up on models until we're within 5 days of the event from happening.

LOL, true that i was just poking fun. Its rediculous August seriously? I did not see that here. Anyways I understand what you said completely both you and sroc, and of course sroc you used food as the analogy LMAO.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:49 pm

Jman I make a mean tortellini carbonara.  No joke its 5 star.  If I was the cook for the Thanksgiving time frame Id guarantee 12-24" for all.  



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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:47 pm

Almost a complete 180 change on the EPS in the long range. Meanwhile, the other OP's agree it will stay cold with several storm chances. Not sure what to make of today's EPS run. Would like to see the 00z suite before figuring out if it's an off run or trying to advance the milder air sooner than expected.


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Almost a complete 180 change on the EPS in the long range. Meanwhile, the other OP's agree it will stay cold with several storm chances. Not sure what to make of today's EPS run. Would like to see the 00z suite before figuring out if it's an off run or trying to advance the milder air sooner than expected.


Interesting Frank.  Weather Bell has the same time frame, but slight diff look.  The bell only has 12hr increments so Image below is 00z whereas the image you show is 6z 24th. The WSI site has the neg on the WC extend much further south all the way to the Baha and Az and has a neg anomalies over Greenland; whereas, the Bell still has pos anomalies in the SW CONUS and and Az, as well as pos anomalies extending up into Greenland.



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
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Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
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March 10th = 4.8"
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:01 pm

Scott -

My image shoes where the greatest height anomaly changes took place since the 00z EURO run last night. So for example, on my image where the deep blues are on the west coast...todays 12z EURO run has negative heights whereas last nights 00z run either had less amplified neg heights or perhaps even a ridge in some places. Its just the 12 hour height anomaly change

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:05 pm

Gotcha

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WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
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Dec 11th = coating
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Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
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March 10th = 4.8"
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:50 pm

Here is DT's video from last night.  He states that despite the upcoming -NAO, the trough in the East Pacific will prevent a Godzilla from impacting the I-95 corridor for the foreseeable future.  He also mentions that the week after Thanksgiving would feature a midwest warm-up, which makes an attempt to come east.  Perhaps later in December, there would be a chance for nice snow for the coast.  But not much in the way for us anytime soon.

Remember, as Frank said, attack the idea, not the presenter.  Here is the video:


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:27 am

In case anyone was wondering November is currently sitting at about normal for the month as a whole.  This map is only through the 11th but that was the coldest day as far as departure from normal thus far and is included in this reanalysis.  As you can see through the 11th at least we are actually 0.5-0.75* above normal still for the month, but if the last 3 days were allowed to be included we would be at normal to maybe -0.5* below normal through yesterday.  While the pattern continues to call for below normal temps by and large we will likely get transient periods of above normal, ie: a day or two, before going back to below normal.  As others have begun to allude to I'm not sure the pattern is quite right for a snow storm, with the period between next week Tuesday and Friday offering the best shot at it.  For now we have to see how the pattern evolves.  Yes we are looking at a -NAO trying to set up in this time frame, but the EPO region is a big question mark.  I believe Frank alluded to this previously.  We have to see how the Ridging in this area evolves.  There are hints that while the WPO will remain mod-strong neg the EPO region is going towards at least neutral.  The EPS and GEFS are a little at odds right now with this area.  I mentioned it several times in the past but the western trough will cont to be a thorn in our side for when it tucks into the WC o Canada and the N CONUS it creates a semi zonal flow off the pacific.   With a neutral or +EPO region the WC trough/Pac jet breaks off pieces of energy and shoots them east that combine with energy digging from the polar jet over the plains and the storm track remains west of us.    With a storm track cutting to the west into the GL, you get a transient warm up out ahead, followed by the cold frontal passage, and the mean trough axis sitting to our east.  The result is colder than normal temps, but dry.  It will be highly dependant on if 1) the NAO region will be strong enough neg and far enough west to hold the mean trough axis back enough leading to possibly Miller B type set up.  And/or 2) if our -WPO/-EPO ridging couplet holds strong enough.  




Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:10 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by algae888 on Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:51 am

Departure through 11/13. CP -2.2, jfk -2, newark -1.5, lga -1.3.
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