Long Range Thread 15.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:55 am

JH AKA Earthlight :

One of the key pieces to the longevity of cold and stormy weather in Central and Eastern US will be the poleward build of anomalous Pacific ridging. ECMWF EPS builds ridging into the EPO/AO regions through 10+ days (‘13-‘14 esq).




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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Snow88 on Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:54 pm

GEFS loves the mid month for some potential
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:59 pm

EURO now showing start warming Isothetm has been harping


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:20 pm

Arctic front snows - JESUS my son out at PSU looks to get burried of the=is comes to fruition!!


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:27 pm

The models as we are seeing and have LR forecasted are picking up on teh mechanisms taking place and will continue to adjust as we get closer to this time frame in a good way.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:48 pm

Start is really amazing serious wind reversal here as noted by a met from another board who liv3s in the next town from me
He




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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:53 pm

Oh and Math Steve D your boy is saying massive feedback loop of cold and snow for next 3 weeks. The block is overy the top makes a horseshoe and locks in the trough and PV with a scan block, and epo block with a Russian block on the top that extends into the NAO. Heights pumped on the west coast. If it's doesn't get one exited and scream.potential then Frank should just shut the door!



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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by frank 638 on Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:20 pm

Amugs I am freaking excited it's about time . after dealing with 2 horrible Winters we deserve this bring on the cold and snow because I am ready

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by mikeypizano on Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:26 pm

frank 638 wrote:Amugs I am freaking excited it's about time . after dealing with 2 horrible Winters we deserve this bring on the cold and snow because I am ready

I bought another snow blower this year, to replace an old MTD single stage, 3 shovels, 2 pairs of boots, and 3 pairs of gloves...
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:14 pm

amugs wrote:Start is really amazing serious wind reversal here as noted by a met from another board who liv3s in the next town from me
He




Who's the met? I know one here in Westwood, but doesn't do it professionally....

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:15 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Amugs I am freaking excited it's about time . after dealing with 2 horrible Winters we deserve this bring on the cold and snow because I am ready

I bought another snow blower this year, to replace an old MTD single stage, 3 shovels, 2 pairs of boots,  and 3 pairs of gloves...

uhoh Mikey, kiss of death! We're doomed!

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by mikeypizano on Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:33 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Amugs I am freaking excited it's about time . after dealing with 2 horrible Winters we deserve this bring on the cold and snow because I am ready

I bought another snow blower this year, to replace an old MTD single stage, 3 shovels, 2 pairs of boots,  and 3 pairs of gloves...

uhoh Mikey, kiss of death! We're doomed!

I am in this to make money... :p
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:49 am

Zoo - goes by Superstorm - guy from RiverVale - Millersville Met Grad student. Lives out there now studying more weather towards Masters! LOL

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 02, 2017 8:22 am

amugs wrote:Oh and Math Steve D your boy is saying massive feedback loop of cold and snow for next 3 weeks. The block is overy the top makes a horseshoe and locks in the trough and PV with a scan block, and epo block with a Russian block on the top  that extends into the NAO. Heights pumped on the west coast. If it's doesn't get one exited and scream.potential then Frank should just shut the door!




A causual observation I have been noticing in the ensemble means is the intensity of the higher height anomalies seem to be trending weaker and more zonal over N Atlantic and Greenland area in the means.  So where we may technically get a -NAO on the graphs I worry it might not be a true blocking -NAO.  Looking at the EPS image you posted above.  We need to see higher heights extend up into the Greenland area to slow the up stream flow. (off the EC).



If the EPS were to verify verbatim it would lead to very flat heights in the N Atlantic which would lead to a very progressive flow off the EC.  The -EPO/+PNA/-AO  would undoubtedly still give us a mean trough in the east and well below normal temps, but the "flat"/zonal flow in the N Atl means a storm track S&E and suppression depression.  This would still offer snow opportunity but more in the form of quick hittters or inverted trough like feautures rather than bigger Nor easters.  Of course even with a mean proggressive flow off the EC it doesnt mean we cant get a ell timed s/w dive in and phase with a s/w in the STJ leading to a more significant storm.  Again this is verbatim as per the current EPS means.  The GFS op map you posted has a much better look in the NAO region around the 15th but that's an Op run 13days from now..need I say more.  






Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Dec 02, 2017 8:26 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Sat Dec 02, 2017 8:23 am

MJO - BOOYYAHHHHHHHH!!
JB wrote in depth about this yesterday saying he wasn't buying the forecast and likened it to 2010!

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Sat Dec 02, 2017 8:42 am

SCOTT - I am not and no one is calling for a major storm of MECS, HECS variety just pointing out that snow chances will be there for the few weeks, we can still get a couple to few inches out of these storms. Not HECS chasing here my man.
Two - I have stated and will continue to do that the pattern is there and will improve with each successive run to the true atmospheric conditions IE - PAC wave breaks and interference of the map I posted from Ventrice, East Asian Moutain Torque, MJO state and convection areas, STRAT, ARCTIC poleward intrusion and massive extension, LOW AAM, SCAN Bloc.

The pattern is saying POTENTIAL IMO and it will improve as the models start to sample the cold air and vorts that will be rounding the base of the H5 PV and trough. We are talking possible hours of separation from a couple of inches to a SECS type storm. Once teh pattern matures by midish December then I think we can start to see the possibilities increase of SECS type storms possible MECS IF things align (22-23rd time frame by Jim Witt!!)
Is there still a progressive flow at this time - OH yes there is but a PAC Block (Negative EPO) with a Positive SD 2-3 PNA and SCAN Block -East Based NAO we will do ala 2013.


The cold and snow will have a feedback on each other as Steve D talked about and so do pro mets JH, JM,, JB, JD, DS, SC all discuss. They all believe it will last through the new year - like Isotherm and my LR Winter forecasts and then relax and then reload for how long is a question that will be answered in the next few weeks.


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Sat Dec 02, 2017 8:45 am

EURO SAYS HELLO - MJO PHASE 7 IN DEC - WATCHAAAA!! Picking up on what has been talked about with teh convection dying in the IO NW of Aussie land and firing ip ENE of Aussie land!


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Dec 02, 2017 9:03 am

amugs wrote:Arctic front snows - JESUS my son out at PSU looks to get burried of the=is comes to fruition!!


guess you are taking a sick day and going to drive out early to spend some quality time with your son at school??!! Very Happy
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 02, 2017 9:11 am

Mugs my post in no way was to challenge anything you said nor did I think you were calling for a hecs/mecs etc, but rather to comment on the potential in front of us. It’s certainly easier to get it to snow if the cold is in place when mid level energy arrives vs needing to generate the cold with a phase etc. There is now doubt the cold air is coming which increases our potential, but you can have all the potential in the world but it means nothing until it actually happens. Johnny Manzel had all the potential in the world and look how that worked out. Lol

If the N Atlantic is more zonal then the potential for mecs and hecs decreases over the next two weeks and potential for a suppressed storm track increases. But again as stated a well timed digging polar s/w can still produce a mecs in this pattern.


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Snow88 on Sat Dec 02, 2017 9:58 am

This is going to be the coldest stretch that we have seen in a long time.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by mikeypizano on Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:26 am

The real question though? How long will it last?
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:42 am

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!This coming from very well pro forecaster and he NEVER I mean NEVER talks like this - HOT DIGGITY!!!

"Everything you could hope for to see a MECS/HECS with this ENSO and backround state is happening...everything.........."

party party party bananadude bananadude shout shocked

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:47 am

sroc4 wrote:Mugs my post in no way was to challenge anything you said nor did I think you were calling for a hecs/mecs etc, but rather to comment on the potential in front of us.  It’s certainly easier to get it to snow if the cold is in place when mid level energy arrives vs needing to generate the cold with a phase etc. There is now doubt the cold air is coming which increases our potential, but you can have all the potential in the world but it means nothing until it actually happens. Johnny Manzel had all the potential in the world and look how that worked out. Lol

If the N Atlantic is more zonal then the potential for mecs and hecs decreases over the next two weeks and potential for a suppressed storm track increases. But again as stated a well timed digging polar s/w can still produce a mecs in this pattern.  


Paisan and my mini me 12 years younger!

I re read your post and I jumped the gun a bit, my apologies.
But as you see from my posts, yes it may zonal but the 10-28th time frame looks to be loaded. Johnny Manzel, Marcus Dupree, Steve Kemp, etc etc.. This is Big Momma talkin' to us and she is saying better get yuor ducks lined up outside this weekend cause by this time next time week we will be cold and possibly white gold on the ground!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:53 am

I created a thread for next weekend. Keep this thread for discussions beyond December 9th Smile

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Math23x7 on Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:22 pm

Mugs, which meteorologist did that quote come from?

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

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