Long Range Thread 15.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:54 pm

amugs wrote:HOLY MOTHER OF POOP!! EARTHLIGHT BARKING AT THIS POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEK!!

"GFS has trended way better for the 12/13 event with the REMOVAL of a huge TPV. This storm then becomes its own entity much faster and jet dynamics with moisture are prevalent. This is trending better rapidly ."

IN ADDITION

The loss of the huge TPV phase in the Northeast means it elongates quickly. We have a KU look in under 240 hours if that is correct. Go watch the evolution yourself!

MOTHER OF GODDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!!
HE NEVER SAYS SUCH AT THIS RANGE!!



I know who our hype man is lol. Yes please mugs explain. Isn't elongated not a good thing? It's offshore for now but west trend baby. Glad I moved my travel plans to Mon Tues from Tues wed. Hopefully it holds off until later on wed b perfect.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:04 pm

A Godzilla in Dec maybe for once? Lol I'm not hold my breath we are a week out and look what happen to Fri supposed storm.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:02 pm

mikeypizano wrote:Mugs, please put that into little words so I can under stand it... Does that mean BIG storm?

Yes this is what he is saying

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:04 pm

amugs wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Mugs, please put that into little words so I can under stand it... Does that mean BIG storm?

Yes this is what he is saying

Like I said I am a landscaper, I can tell you anything you would ever want to know about lawn mowers, but weather wise I am pretty clueless... Hope hes right about BIG storm... FRANKZILLA in December? YES PLEASE!
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:07 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
amugs wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Mugs, please put that into little words so I can under stand it... Does that mean BIG storm?

Yes this is what he is saying

Like I said I am a landscaper, I can tell you anything you would ever want to know about lawn mowers, but weather wise I am pretty clueless...  Hope hes right about BIG storm... FRANKZILLA in December? YES PLEASE!

A possible MECS (Major East Coast Storm)type storm not a HECS (24"+) or BECS(36"+) at this time

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:09 pm

amugs wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
amugs wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Mugs, please put that into little words so I can under stand it... Does that mean BIG storm?

Yes this is what he is saying

Like I said I am a landscaper, I can tell you anything you would ever want to know about lawn mowers, but weather wise I am pretty clueless...  Hope hes right about BIG storm... FRANKZILLA in December? YES PLEASE!

A possible MECS (Major East Coast Storm)type storm not a HECS (24"+) or BECS(36"+) at this time

Good enough... Laughing 12 inch is plenty.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:58 am

GFS was very close to showing a huge storm off our coast on Wednesday. The southern branch escaped east to avoid the phase with the northern branch. GFS has a progressive bias, but we also do not have much of a -NAO or 50/50 block so a missed phase idea is on the table anyway.


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:00 am

I really love the ridge placement in the west with this storm. If we had any form of blocking in the Atlantic to slow down the southern jet then this would have been a very nice set-up for a potential Godzilla. I don't expect a Godzilla, even if a phase did occur, but it would be a nice moderate event if it came together.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:16 pm

WTH come on baby come to poppa you ...

From JH site






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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:21 pm

Anyone see the weeklies LR??
Human humina humina!!
Negative AO, EPO and NAO in the means through Jan 10th.
PNA is slightly posted to flat BUT the PAC keeps sending wave breaks to strengthen the EPO, WPO region which in turn will aid cold air intrusion into the NE and send Manitoba maulers and clippers in our direction that all we need is to get south by the Delmarva and KABOOM with our very warm Hotlantic. Giddy up.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:11 pm

looks like 13th system stays to our north on gfs anyways, what happened to a coastal, or like the one that is upon us this weekend do we have to wait till mon/tues?
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:51 pm

more snow in the forecast for Monday night as a clipper moves in from the west and lp redevelops offshore. expect another clipper Friday. well below normal temps mid week on and very active. look for a relax around days 9 thru 11 and then reload just in time for xmas.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:02 pm

have to say NWS disco and forecast have been good. esp there disco. I wonder if there are new mets there or new methods with there products. anyway here is their latest LR disco. enjoy!...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A relatively active/progressive pattern will continue this week,
with one low pressure system likely impacting the area Mon
night into Tue morning, and perhaps another from late Thu into
Fri. Most of the precip with the first system should occur on
the front end via warm advection, with all snow inland, and snow
changing to rain closer to the coast. Amounts should be on the
light side, with about an inch closer to the coast, and 2 or 3
inches inland.

Temps Tue morning as a triple point low develops nearby Tue
morning should rise to the upper 30s/lower 40s, then as this low
moves into the Canadian Maritimes and intensifies, blustery and
colder conditions expected for Tue night through Wed night,
with lows in the teens and 20s, and low from the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

Some uncertainty exists on the timing and track of one or more
northern stream disturbances for late week. The 00Z ECMWF
tracked a leading clipper low just off to the south, while the
12Z tracked the same low well south. Models generally agree on
another more consolidated system passing through late Thu night
into Friday as an amplifying long wave upper trough to the
west approaches and passes through. As a result have broad-
brushed low chance PoP from Thu night into Friday. Temps should
be cold enough for precip with this potential system to be
mainly snow.

After this low passes, zonal flow should return, with temps
returning closer to average, if not on Sat, then early next
week before the trough reloads and colder air returns mid next
week."
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:38 pm

Thread for Tuesdays clipper

http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t864-december-12th-clipper#120111

Ill speak more about next weekends storm threat tomorrow.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:50 pm

Interesting stat from Don S, well regarded Meteorologist

Since 1950, every time a 4 inch plus storm occurs from Philly northeastward through Red Sox Suck in December, the winter average is 46 inches for the city.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:51 pm

Arctic outbreak leading up to Christmas. Thinking there could be a storm threat between 23rd-26th


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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:01 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Arctic outbreak leading up to Christmas. Thinking there could be a storm threat between 23rd-26th

That would be very cool, mess up a lot of travel if its a bad one but I cannot pass on a Christmas storm, hey 26th 2010!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:19 pm

Jin Witt as I said back when it's pattern was evolving said Dec 22/23 for a major east coast storm +/- 2 days.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:08 pm

So we should be okay on the 16th? Looks like very low chance anything will transpire according to Franks index. I got a bunch holiday parties that weekend and traveling so I would actually prefer the snow hold off next weekend.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by aiannone on Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:18 pm

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:21 pm

Okay I better have a plan b for this weekend.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by frank 638 on Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:29 pm

We are you guys talking about they might be a storm this Saturday coming up because I am going to Radio City Christmas show at night around 6:30 all you till my next weekend stupid question LOL

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by rb924119 on Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:50 am

The potential for the end of this week is really interesting me for another I-95 special, and am expecting the models to again trend to this type of solution over the coming days. We shall see.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:28 am

rb924119 wrote:The potential for the end of this week is really interesting me for another I-95 special, and am expecting the models to again trend to this type of solution over the coming days. We shall see.
are u thinking minor or major snows if it does come far enough west?
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:34 am

rb924119 wrote:The potential for the end of this week is really interesting me for another I-95 special, and am expecting the models to again trend to this type of solution over the coming days. We shall see.

Teh PAC looks like wants to help us out again by pumping the PNA with an LP into the Aleutians EPO region - the buckle in the jet out there has been very good so far for us from the middle of Nov as projected. A protraction in the JET and a buckle always does wonders for us.

Moving forward the MJO is forecasted to go 7 then 8 -if teh GESF are correct and it is in this range and can get to 1 then watch out cause this wave means cold and stormy conditions on the east coast. The E MT is helping s well as the Low AAM .

AAM Forecast




GEFS MJO - root for this hard peeps!! cheers rendeer


EURO - not bad eitehr but GEFS is much stronger and better for us here on the EC


GEFS has beaten the EURO the last few weeks on this amplitude - lets home it does so again.

Buckles in teh JET




Rb glad yuo like teh set up and possibility - weekend storm rule shall apply!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

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