Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

[jmanley32]

The potential for the end of this week is really interesting me for another I-95 special, and am expecting the models to again trend to this type of solution over the coming days. We shall see.

are u thinking minor or major snows if it does come far enough west?

[amugs]

The potential for the end of this week is really interesting me for another I-95 special, and am expecting the models to again trend to this type of solution over the coming days. We shall see.

Teh PAC looks like wants to help us out again by pumping the PNA with an LP into the Aleutians EPO region - the buckle in the jet out there has been very good so far for us from the middle of Nov as projected. A protraction in the JET and a buckle always does wonders for us.

Moving forward the MJO is forecasted to go 7 then 8 -if teh GESF are correct and it is in this range and can get to 1 then watch out cause this wave means cold and stormy conditions on the east coast. The E MT is helping s well as the Low AAM .

AAM Forecast




GEFS MJO - root for this hard peeps!!


EURO - not bad eitehr but GEFS is much stronger and better for us here on the EC


GEFS has beaten the EURO the last few weeks on this amplitude - lets home it does so again.

Buckles in teh JET




Rb glad yuo like teh set up and possibility - weekend storm rule shall apply!!

[Sanchize06]

CMC

[rb924119]

The potential for the end of this week is really interesting me for another I-95 special, and am expecting the models to again trend to this type of solution over the coming days. We shall see.

are u thinking minor or major snows if it does come far enough west?

Pretty much very similar to what we just saw in terms of totals, again, if it does actually happen lol

[sroc4]

CMC

CMC for Saturday. Snow map is 10:1 ratio. As per cMC verbatim it would be more like 12-15:1 ratios with surface temps between 28-30* and 925-850’s between -7 to -11 throughout the event. A solid 6-9” with ratios verbatim. Come on euro!!

[sroc4]

The potential for the end of this week is really interesting me for another I-95 special, and am expecting the models to again trend to this type of solution over the coming days. We shall see.

are u thinking minor or major snows if it does come far enough west?

Pretty much very similar to what we just saw in terms of totals, again, if it does actually happen lol

If it happens...exactly. Only difference is it looks a lot colder at least per the CMC verbatim

[Sanchize06]

CMC

CMC for Saturday. Snow map is 10:1 ratio. As per cMC verbatim it would be more like 12-15:1 ratios with surface temps between 28-30* and 925-850’s between -7 to -11 throughout the event. A solid 6-9” with ratios verbatim. Come on euro!!

Yeah and it would help as per the CMC it would be coming in overnight also

[sroc4]

Euro says.....oh you want snow this weekend????

[rb924119]

I'm not worried lol the NAM looks like the CMC, so at least the CMC isn't entirely alone ahaha

[rb924119]

Just like the last storm, this storm is going to be partially fueled by a wave that is being discharged directly from the Arctic, and I'm hedging my bet that the models are under-representing the strength and speed of that wave, just like this last storm. It's a test of a hypothesis, so if I crash and burn at least I'll know to use that idea with caution AhahAha I also think that the system should trend further north and west based on the hemispheric teleconnections.

[amugs]

Just like the last storm, this storm is going to be partially fueled by a wave that is being discharged directly from the Arctic, and I'm hedging my bet that the models are under-representing the strength and speed of that wave, just like this last storm. It's a test of a hypothesis, so if I crash and burn at least I'll know to use that idea with caution AhahAha I also think that the system should trend further north and west based on the hemispheric teleconnections.

Good stuff rb and clippers do like to trend North - thinking a solid coating to 1.5" maybe over the area

[sroc4]

I'm not worried lol the NAM looks like the CMC, so at least the CMC isn't entirely alone ahaha

I'm just trying to be funny. I know better than to throw in the towel.

[rb924119]

I'm not worried lol the NAM looks like the CMC, so at least the CMC isn't entirely alone ahaha

I'm just trying to be funny.  I know better than to throw in the towel.  

I know ahaha you're a seasoned vet.....I'd expect nothing less lmao

[aiannone]

18z NAM looks nice for the clipper over LI

[sroc4]

18z NAM looks nice for the clipper over LI

I moooved this over to the ec Obs and discussion thread. For now lets cont model discussion over there. If it gets more widespread or even wetter then we will make a separate thread for it. If its mostly a light event for a small areaq we can discuss it there for now. As far as the weekend threat a few more days and we can start a thread for it if its looking legit.

[sroc4]

If you have a subscription the weather Bell JB has a really nice video explaining the LR pattern and why no one should panic. It falls in line with what Isotherm posted a few days ago in that cold and snow chances are increasing.  Unfort you need a subscription to view the video

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-atmospheric-avenger-775?full

[lglickman1]

Are there any legitimate threats in the LR over the next 2 weeks?

[amugs]

Are there any legitimate threats in the LR over the next 2 weeks?

MJO going into Phase 8 by the 22nd we get some VERY GOOD chances!!









Could be a nightmare Xmas night!!! Last time ................2002!

[track17]

Mugs am I looking at it wrong but that looks like a warm look for most of nj

[sroc4]

Mugs am I looking at it wrong but that looks like a warm look for most of nj

This far out we typically wouldnt worry about those details. If a there were a LP centered where that image shows, the dynamics of the storm and the details of the pattern would change these lines, for better or worse, when we were much closer in time. All we look for is the signal for a storm.

[track17]

Ok cool

[amugs]

Track with MJO phase going into 8 and a deep Negative EPO to funnel cold air into the region and an East BASed Block showing up we may not have temp issues, for those NW tehre will not be temp issues as currently modelled from the 23rd on.

[jmanley32]

I have travel on the 23rd and 24th so I'm sorry but hoping it won't be bad. 25th would be perfect!

[skinsfan1177]

The 22-27 looks mighty promising

[track17]

Do tell skins you are the jersey shore expert

[amugs]

Starts this weekend through the end of the year book it!!

[skinsfan1177]

Starts this weekend through the end of the year book it!!

Mugsy the 18z GFS was drool worthy. Things are going in the right direction

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