Long Range Thread 15.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jake732 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro shows the storm but off the coast. Looks like GFS. I am glad the storm is showing up. Plenty of time for it to trend west.

frank, which store u talking about?
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by crippo84 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:25 pm

jake732 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Euro shows the storm but off the coast. Looks like GFS. I am glad the storm is showing up. Plenty of time for it to trend west.

frank, which store u talking about?

A potential storm threat around January 4th.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:30 pm

crippo84 wrote:
jake732 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Euro shows the storm but off the coast. Looks like GFS. I am glad the storm is showing up. Plenty of time for it to trend west.

frank, which store u talking about?

A potential storm threat around January 4th.

Yes

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:44 pm

Okay it's good we have all 3 models showing a storm on same day just diff placement but do you guys have more feeling this would psn out than you did about this weekend s week ago?
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:01 pm

12z EPS at H5 are beautiful, though the surface and QPF maps DO NOT reflect this. *IF* current modeling holds, this should correct significantly west to come in line with the GEM and it's enemble, which are about as nice a look as we've seen in recent years with a progressive pattern. As Frank said the fact that it's there is a good start, and given that this will signal the beginning of a pattern relaxation gives me more confidence that something will come from this for somebody on this board compared to what happened for this coming weekend.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:06 pm

Hands down with all the hype from EVERY forecaster on here and how efin cold it is this two week period will probably go down as one of the most disappointing winter weather periods I've ever been around. I'd rather have a super Nino where we have no cold. The fact we have the cold for this long with no snow makes it worse
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:34 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Hands down with all the hype from EVERY forecaster on here and how efin cold it is this two week period will probably go down as one of the most disappointing winter weather periods I've ever been around. I'd rather have a super Nino where we have no cold. The fact we have the cold for this long with no snow makes it worse

No hype by the forecasters on here... rb bailed on this a few days back, Frank's snow confidence never went above 10%. I saw no forecast from anyone, just discussion over model runs. Everyone is disappointed we won't see the big one this weekend, but it is what it is. It is only the beginning of the season and there is potential with the cold in place. Just have to see what develops...

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:35 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Hands down with all the hype from EVERY forecaster on here and how efin cold it is this two week period will probably go down as one of the most disappointing winter weather periods I've ever been around. I'd rather have a super Nino where we have no cold. The fact we have the cold for this long with no snow makes it worse
I agree praying that next threat works out but not holding my breath. Supposed have negative eindchills insanely low coming up I hate that especially since I have bronchitis. Happy New year's to me...not. but just have make best of it and move forward.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:44 pm

Not gonna go back and look up specifics Janet but I respectfully disagree. TONS of hype. Not picking on anyone. Still by far the best forecasters I know but there was something along the lines of "the best set up we've seen in years which will absolutely produce"
(I'm paraphrasing but accurate) from EVERY knowledgeable person on here.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by frank 638 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:17 pm

All of you guys are the best and I think you guys do way better than weather forecasters. Let's all hang in there we all know that whether models can drive us crazy one day we have a storm then the next it's gone then it comes back who knows maybe we will get a nice surprise and a falls on January 5th. anniversary of the blizzard of 96

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:24 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Not gonna go back and look up specifics Janet but I respectfully disagree. TONS of hype. Not picking on anyone. Still by far the best forecasters I know but there was something along the lines of "the best set up we've seen in years which will absolutely produce"
(I'm paraphrasing but accurate) from EVERY knowledgeable person on here.
I for one thought that this weekends storm had Godzilla potential if not much higher. I soon learned that the models cannot be trusted outside of 5 days with such a progressive pattern. Whatever, I'll take my lumps and move on. With that being said, its looking more likely that this cold weather regime is here for the long term. With all this cold air, its only a matter of not if but when we cash in on a big event.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:26 pm

Through yesterday all area reporting stations are still above normal temperature wise for the month, although all less than 1 degree above. The month will finish below normal only because of the next 5 days.

Snowfall in Central Park is 7.0 inches which is 2  inches above the normal December. All in all a pretty normal December as opposed to the torches we've had in December the last couple of years.

So why all the complaining? Because a few people got amped up by a few 30-40 inch clown maps? We see those several times a winter. People have to start to realize that and not take them seriously, especially MORE THAN A WEEK OUT!!!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:32 pm

I can't speak for anyone else CP but I never took stock in those clown maps.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:42 pm

Cnj and snj and LI can see a few inches from this. We only need .3 to .4 qpf to get a decent snow. I like 2-4 inches cnj coast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by dkodgis on Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:52 pm

As we all know about weather forecasting:

some days the bear eats you
some days you eat the bear
often you both go home hungry
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:09 pm

Skins. .3" with these temps we go 4 or 5 inches easy. I just don't see it on any of the models
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by hyde345 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:12 pm

This month will bring above normal snowfall and below normal temps but it still will be a bit of a disappointment considering the SECS/MECS potential this period once had especially with the cold locked in. Still hoping Jan 4/5 time period works out.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by frank 638 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:16 pm

AccuWeather has me for 1 to 3 inches of snow for sat night

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jimv45 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:19 pm

Yes Hyde it would be a big bummer with not snow and cold locked. And then it would be a kick in the gut if it got warmer with rain boy this site would lite up.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:20 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Not gonna go back and look up specifics Janet but I respectfully disagree. TONS of hype. Not picking on anyone. Still by far the best forecasters I know but there was something along the lines of "the best set up we've seen in years which will absolutely produce"
(I'm paraphrasing but accurate) from EVERY knowledgeable person on here.

Syo, I'll take blame for getting revved up over this (28th-1st) period, as I was pretty excited by how bullish the ensembles were. Sometimes there are red flags that appear in looking at things that make you question whether they're onto something, or just showing you what you want to see. In this case, at least personally, what the ensembles were showing was backed by the evolution of the NH pattern evolution, and where I thought things were going to be headed. Now, it's entirely possible that I missed something that others saw. I do not discredit that train of thought for a second. But to me, I'm going to say that I was just completely fooled by how poorly the models handled the Pacific during this time frame. That's what broke this storm's back for us. Without the western ridging, this storm can't happen in a big way. That said, I will not say that I said this storm was a lock. I said it was likely, but never a guarantee. However, the implications of my excitement and statements are understandable, as I too largely thought it was a question of when/how much, not if. Anyway, I apologize again, a si know I contributed to this.

And now we are faced with a similar situation for the 3rd-6th period, though I do feel more confident that this one will be a more credible event to at the very least track. Reasons were posted earlier.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:32 pm

Everyone needs to chill out. Holy crap. I'm not blaming. I'm not looking for apologies. I love this board. Pointing out that people were all very bullish and venting my own frustration about the lack of snow with all this cold is NOT AN ATTACK ON ANYONE
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:40 pm

dkodgis wrote:As we all know about weather forecasting:

some days the bear eats you
some days you eat the bear
often you both go home hungry

Love this!! Just like we saw with the Christmas Day forcast well in advance the cold will push harder than models can handle so in the LR and even MR when we saw 50’s and 60’s we all knew it was going to evolve colder. Same hold true here. We saw the “perfect pattern” but in reality models were underestimating the cold push again. So result is suppression to the storm track for this weekend. That said 0.2-0.4” +\- of QPF is certainly doable for coast sections. With 15-20:1 ratios easy do not be surprised to see 2-4” to 3-6” NYC jersey shore and LI possible with higher totals the further east you go.

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:40 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Everyone needs to chill out. Holy crap. I'm not blaming. I'm not looking for apologies. I love this board. Pointing out that people were all very bullish and venting my own frustration about the lack of snow with all this cold is NOT AN ATTACK ON ANYONE

Have no fear!!!! I didn't take it as an attack. Believe me haha I just wanted to acknowledge your point and take ownership of the stance I took, and responsibility for my actions, because at least in my case, I feel you are right. That's all. I'm not taking what you said poorly or as an attack; I know you didn't mean it that way lol besides, nothing anybody else says beats me up harder than I do AhahAha THAT I CAN GUARANTEE lmfaooooo

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:47 pm

I'm just going to sit here, drink my beer, and watch Elf... :p
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Carter bk on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:51 pm

Banter guys lets just get ready for the next storm

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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

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