Rocktober Obs/Discussions

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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by RJB8525 on Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:41 am

the fall colors are just shriveled up crunchy brown leaves this season
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by algae888 on Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:08 pm

There is no doubt in my mind that we will see a pattern change beginning early to mid next week. Now that's not saying a lot since we've been plus 7 or so since around September the 15th and we all know that those departures cannot last. The pattern change will probably bring temperatures closer to normal. Which means plus one in this warm climate. The one thing I like on guidance is the ridging over the Arctic regions wether Alaska or Greenland on the ensembles. That's good to see on guidance and hopefully it will have an effect on the polar vortex. I I strongly believe we need a weakened polar vortex this year especially with the incoming La Nina. Let's hope November does the job on the stratosphere so we can have a decent December for once aren't we due!
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:57 pm

What a glorious day! Went to Warwick winery and enjoyed way too much vino! It was disappointing not to see much color, but I got a nice sunburn! drunken sunny


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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:06 am

Dunnzoo wrote:What a glorious day! Went to Warwick winery and enjoyed way too much vino! It was disappointing not to see much color, but I got a nice sunburn! drunken sunny


nice about the winery..sorry about the sunburn..it was a glorious day yesterday!!

low temp for this morning was 45 degrees....beautiful sunrise
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Math23x7 on Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:51 pm

It’s been a pretty warm October so far. But hey, maybe we can get the warmth out of the way before winter comes. Of course, next week will see an Arctic airmass try to come in to our area.

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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:51 pm

Rain Tuesday anyone?? RGEM says get the ark for NE NJ, NYC, LI and CT


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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:38 am

Mugsy, we need every drop of that rain after this dry spell..04 in the bucket as of 5:37 AM.
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:03 am

Wind advisory up winds are ripping mostly with each incoming shower. The storm produced 9 tornados yesterday and we under yellow for severe storms later and even the possibility of a tornado. Are we almost in Nov or August?
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:04 am

The clouds are racing pretty cool wish I wasn't go b indoors in the city till 430 my trip home is prolly gonna suck
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:05 pm

Hmmm, a line of storms, heading toward eastern NJ, but after that, I don't see any more threats. The spin in the Midwest looks to be going a tad NE. Is it more a concern of the front stalling over LI, I don't see the 2" forecasted for NNJ.

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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:28 pm

So much for our needed rain

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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:17 pm

Yep it completely fizzled out non event line all broken. Lucky if anyone sees .10 if tgat.
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:26 pm

Storm is supposed to stall and fill in then train but not util late afternoon and eve. Spotty during the afternoon was expected. Sharp cutoffs. Where it trains can see 2-4".

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
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Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:49 pm

What a bust I don't even think we will get a 1 inch out of this storm .just bring on the Fall weather already it's very humid out

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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:19 pm

Not much here in NENJ as of about 4 pm


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Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      38.5"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:27 pm

Suffolk County seems to be the jackpot. Filling in nicely and coming down very heavy at the moment. We will have to see where the system stalls.



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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by hyde345 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:41 pm

It certainly wasn't a bust in the mid hudson valley. We had a deluge in the poughkeepsie area for about 2 hours earlier this afternoon.
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:43 pm

Central Nassau County east through western half of Suffolk on LI 2.5-3" and counting. 2.83" IMBY.
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by HectorO on Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:04 pm

There was a monsoon where I was driving through. Reminded me of driving in Florida. Tons of rain, I guess there was a thin line.
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:33 am

The storm brewing for Sun/Mon is looking more intense, the CMC is actually weaker on the 00z (shows 988mb but still has 80+ kt 850mb winds ! Than GFS GFS goes inland over CT keeping the strongest winds over eastern CT and east, while CMC crushes jersey shore NYC and points east. Both give insane amounts of precip.  Anyone have the better graphics for Euro on what it is doing with this system?  It takes a similar track to sandy in as much saying it kinda retrogrades (This will not be a Sandy by any means, I mean lets hope not.) Def go be interesting to track our possible first big noreaster, maybe biggest in a while.
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:54 am

The 0Z UKMET was interesting to say the least...

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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:18 am

It def looks quite interesting to say the least for Sunday into Mon.




_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:58 am

sroc4 wrote:It def looks quite interesting to say the least for Sunday into Mon.  




Wow on Euro, most intense of the 3. Any wind maps, lol sorry had to ask. Gusts map, I know it rarely plays out but just curious or I am gonna have to get my wexbell back lol, does this look like it could kinda become a hybrid type storm or is it just a trough picking up the tropical LP way down by SA now and merging?
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:11 am

Here are the 10m max wind gusts for the Euro, just for S's & G's.  Yes that is hurricane force wind gusts over the eastern end of LI and yes trop storm force winds over most of Nassau and all of Suffolk county. Likely overdone, but a track a tad west of here with even half the wind speeds is significant for our area which is entirely possible.  


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:54 am

JB

Phase 8 MJO argues a more western track than what the models are showing
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Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

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