Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by frank 638 on Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:02 pm

Yes definitely Frank I look forward to meeting up with you guys

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:18 pm

Math23x7 wrote:This was two years ago today.  With the exception of Janet (whom I saw at two Met games, one 7/1/16 and the other 7/16/17), I haven't seen anyone else on the forum since.  I know there was a meetup last November, but I couldn't make it.


Hey I know those guys! Came up on my feed too... need a gtg soon!

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:32 am

Happy Thanksgiving to my NJ Strong family. All the best wishes and health to all. We are so lucky to live in the great ole USA!

On a related note I had it out with an ultra liberal teacher eacher at my school yesterday who decided it was important to trash the USA in her class the last day before Thanksgiving, and as her classes ended she wished the kids Happy Genocide Day instead. (I guess because of what happened to the native Americans )
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:28 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:This was two years ago today.  With the exception of Janet (whom I saw at two Met games, one 7/1/16 and the other 7/16/17), I haven't seen anyone else on the forum since.  I know there was a meetup last November, but I couldn't make it.


Hey I know those guys! Came up on my feed too... need a gtg soon!

This was a great gtg. A lot of fun. Hopefully we can get one together again.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:32 am

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hope it is a fun relaxing day for all.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:56 am

Happy Thanksgiving NJ Strong! Nice and crisp outside. Jimmy. One can merely shake your head at people like that.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by hyde345 on Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:06 am

syosnow94 wrote:Happy Thanksgiving to my NJ Strong family.  All the best wishes and health to all.  We are so lucky to live in the great ole USA!

On a related note I had it out with an ultra liberal teacher eacher at my school yesterday who decided it was important to trash the USA in her class the last day before Thanksgiving, and as her classes ended she wished the kids Happy Genocide Day instead.  (I guess because of what happened to the native Americans )

Good for you to call her out. That stuff gets me really upset. She should keep her political views out of the classroom. I wonder if she is celebrating with family today or sitting home alone researching American history.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by frank 638 on Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:14 am

Another thing to that upsets me is that all the stores are open tonight around 6 p.m. It is Thanksgiving we should celebrate it with the family not going to a mall and doing Christmas shopping on Thanksgiving Day that's why we have Black Friday

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by docstox12 on Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:19 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Happy Thanksgiving to my NJ Strong family.  All the best wishes and health to all.  We are so lucky to live in the great ole USA!

On a related note I had it out with an ultra liberal teacher eacher at my school yesterday who decided it was important to trash the USA in her class the last day before Thanksgiving, and as her classes ended she wished the kids Happy Genocide Day instead.  (I guess because of what happened to the native Americans )

Good for you Jimmy, that teacher should just teach and not politicize.In my day, the stone age, that's what teachers did.The teachers guided you through the textbooks so you could formulate your OWN opinions not be indoctrinated.THAT is what a good educator accomplishes , at least IMHO.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by docstox12 on Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:21 pm

frank 638 wrote:Another thing to that upsets me is that all the stores are open tonight around 6 p.m. It is Thanksgiving we should celebrate it with the family not going to a mall and doing Christmas shopping on Thanksgiving Day that's why we have Black Friday

frank, I agree 100% with you but I think what is happening here now is that so many different cultures have come to the USA and have no feeling for Thanksgiving and it's meaning , so they go to the stores.I honestly don't think stores were ever open this day back in the 50's or 60's.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by rb924119 on Sun Nov 26, 2017 5:27 pm



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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Nov 26, 2017 5:41 pm

rb924119 wrote:

LOCK IT IN. Laughing
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by MattyICE on Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:09 pm

I’m good with operational, deterministic, ensembles, means etc. but can someone explain exactly what a “control” run is?

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by rb924119 on Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:58 pm

MattyICE wrote:I’m good with operational, deterministic, ensembles, means etc. but can someone explain exactly what a “control” run is?

The control is the "original" model that was determined to have the best initialization scheme in that particular model's suite. The ensemble is created by then tweaking various components of the control, if that makes sense?

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by MattyICE on Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:03 pm

Kind of. I guess I assumed that was the explanation for the “operational.” I suppose my next logical question, then, is the difference between operational and control.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by rb924119 on Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:09 am

Operational models are just run at higher resolutions than their controls, otherwise they're the same. Why isn't this redundant? By running the control as a separate model with increased resolution, it allows one to see the differences in the depicted solution that arise from the control "missing" smaller-scale atmospheric processes and their effects on the overall outcome.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by MattyICE on Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:32 am

Got it! Thanks!

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:18 pm

The snow in our area at the end of today's 12Z ECMWF run. Yes, it is in fantasy range, but it makes for great eye candy at this time of the year!


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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by HectorO on Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:27 am

Does anybody know If November finally broke our record of consecutive months or years above normal?
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:35 am

HectorO wrote:Does anybody know If November finally broke our record of consecutive months or years above normal?

We still have today and tomorrow which will be AN. It’s a good bet that we end BN overall though.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:20 pm

Algae888, referring to your post in the long range thread regarding posting images suggesting warmth, well, let's put it this way. There are many members on this forum who will post in excitement models runs showing big snow/cold but are quiet when they turn against it. The dead silence on the forum once this happens would seem confusing for newcomers as they want to know the forecast. What I am attempting to do is fill in the silence when informative posts.

Take the March 14th snow/ice storm, for example. Members in NYC and immediately surrounding areas ended up with more ice/rain than snow. 2-4 days before the event, members were posting in excitement when guidance was showing a Godzilla (perhaps Roidzilla) for the aforementioned region. Then around 5 PM the 12th, silence. The model guidance has shifted towards less snow for the region. By posting the 18Z RGEM and giving what it mentioned (6" with sleet in Bellerose), I filled in the gap. I remember over on OTI I was being blasted for posting this. But as it turns out, this solution turned out to be closer to the right one (I ended up with 5.2" with sleet here).

And I'm not the only one like that. There are two other members, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) and HectorO who will provide useful information even if it goes against what we want. In January 2015, in the days leading up to "Juno", Tom was consistence on his skepticism for high snow totals which the ECMWF was showing. And HectorO's calls for mild weather in the winter have more often than not turned out to verify.

I believe that a good weather source is one that is impartial in terms of ideas.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:00 am

Math23x7 wrote:Algae888, referring to your post in the long range thread regarding posting images suggesting warmth, well, let's put it this way.  There are many members on this forum who will post in excitement models runs showing big snow/cold but are quiet when they turn against it.  The dead silence on the forum once this happens would seem confusing for newcomers as they want to know the forecast.   What I am attempting to do is fill in the silence when informative posts.  

Take the March 14th snow/ice storm, for example.  Members in NYC and immediately surrounding areas ended up with more ice/rain than snow.  2-4 days before the event, members were posting in excitement when guidance was showing a Godzilla (perhaps Roidzilla) for the aforementioned region.  Then around 5 PM the 12th, silence.  The model guidance has shifted towards less snow for the region.  By posting the 18Z RGEM and giving what it mentioned (6" with sleet in Bellerose), I filled in the gap.  I remember over on OTI I was being blasted for posting this.  But as it turns out, this solution turned out to be closer to the right one (I ended up with 5.2" with sleet here).

And I'm not the only one like that.  There are two other members, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) and HectorO who will provide useful information even if it goes against what we want.  In January 2015, in the days leading up to "Juno", Tom was consistence on his skepticism for high snow totals which the ECMWF was showing.  And HectorO's calls for mild weather in the winter have more often than not turned out to verify.

I believe that a good weather source is one that is impartial in terms of ideas.
mike it's always good to have differing opinions here and i for one welcome that. there is nothing confusing to new members when it's sunny and 60* at the end of November or models showing a ridge with AN temps and dry. for most that weather is boring and why it's quiet on here and  they can get that forecast from there local radio station. most on here love storms the more extreme the better and the excitement is in tracking. I wish I had sites like this and tropical tidbits among others when I was young.  I have been wrong many times on here as have others a will be wrong again in the future. I just own it and move on. this is a very humbling hobby. so my dec forecast is -2 to 3 temp and high probability (>60%) of 6+" of snow for the park.  this upcoming pattern is not being hyped by me or anyone on here as this is as good as it gets! maybe you can't see that or we end up like dec 89 (cold and dry with a great pattern). so what's your forecast? put your money where your mouth is! you will earn more respect if you put out a forecast for a given period or event rather than just post some map and say I'm concerned. that goes for anyone!
edit: I should also note that we have not yet tracked any event this fall/early winter season. we have only been looking at overall pattern. this will change soon. me and mugs have been pretty good so far with the flip to colder in november. many missed that!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:59 am

I leave for Montreal on the 15th. Could be in the teens or single digits when I arrive.

Great.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by TheAresian on Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I leave for Montreal on the 15th. Could be in the teens or single digits when I arrive.

Great.

Cheer up,Frank. Maybe it'll be warmer with the exchange rate.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:05 am

algae888 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Algae888, referring to your post in the long range thread regarding posting images suggesting warmth, well, let's put it this way.  There are many members on this forum who will post in excitement models runs showing big snow/cold but are quiet when they turn against it.  The dead silence on the forum once this happens would seem confusing for newcomers as they want to know the forecast.   What I am attempting to do is fill in the silence when informative posts.  

Take the March 14th snow/ice storm, for example.  Members in NYC and immediately surrounding areas ended up with more ice/rain than snow.  2-4 days before the event, members were posting in excitement when guidance was showing a Godzilla (perhaps Roidzilla) for the aforementioned region.  Then around 5 PM the 12th, silence.  The model guidance has shifted towards less snow for the region.  By posting the 18Z RGEM and giving what it mentioned (6" with sleet in Bellerose), I filled in the gap.  I remember over on OTI I was being blasted for posting this.  But as it turns out, this solution turned out to be closer to the right one (I ended up with 5.2" with sleet here).

And I'm not the only one like that.  There are two other members, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) and HectorO who will provide useful information even if it goes against what we want.  In January 2015, in the days leading up to "Juno", Tom was consistence on his skepticism for high snow totals which the ECMWF was showing.  And HectorO's calls for mild weather in the winter have more often than not turned out to verify.

I believe that a good weather source is one that is impartial in terms of ideas.
mike it's always good to have differing opinions here and i for one welcome that. there is nothing confusing to new members when it's sunny and 60* at the end of November or models showing a ridge with AN temps and dry. for most that weather is boring and why it's quiet on here and  they can get that forecast from there local radio station. most on here love storms the more extreme the better and the excitement is in tracking. I wish I had sites like this and tropical tidbits among others when I was young.  I have been wrong many times on here as have others a will be wrong again in the future. I just own it and move on. this is a very humbling hobby. so my dec forecast is -2 to 3 temp and high probability (>60%) of 6+" of snow for the park.  this upcoming pattern is not being hyped by me or anyone on here as this is as good as it gets! maybe you can't see that or we end up like dec 89 (cold and dry with a great pattern). so what's your forecast? put your money where your mouth is! you will earn more respect if you put out a forecast for a given period or event rather than just post some map and say I'm concerned. that goes for anyone!
edit: I should also note that we have not yet tracked any event this fall/early winter season. we have only been looking at overall pattern. this will change soon. me and mugs have been pretty good so far with the flip to colder in november. many missed that!


Come on Al lets be real here.  You said the pattern was going to flip in late Oct.  You came at me when I said the pattern wasn't ready to flip then, and when I said it wasn't going to flip until at least the first 1-2weeks in Dec. you came at me again.  I'm not exactly sure who your referring to regarding those "who missed" the pattern change, because at least on here no one missed anything.  There may have been some timing issues with all of us, but the big picture was never missed by any of us.  Even though you ended up being correct about the month of Nov going cold your reasoning as to the why was not entirely accurate.  Your argument was it was the -EPO.  While yes that teleconnection was vitally important into allowing for the cold air to filter into the CONUS, IT WAS NOT the driver and without other more important factors the extent of the cold air would have been greatly diminished.  

The two recurving typhoons in late Oct and the latent heat released into the upper levels of the atmosphere combined with    favorbale upper atmospheric condition seen with the low solar period and a -QBO is what help to set off the changes that took place in the stratosphere and why your -EPO was able to set up in the first place the way it did.  It was the strength and positioning of the strat vortex that allowed the -EPO to enhance the big picture rather than drive it.  

As you can see from the maps below here is what the strat looked like in the means from Oct 20th-Oct 30th at both 10mb and 70mb followed by Oct 25th-Nov5th; then Oct30th-Nov10th.   Remember we had a wave 1 followed by a wave 2 attack on the strat end oct first week of Nov respectively.  You can clearly see the transition of the strat from one that was on the wrong side of the N hemisphere to one that became elongated and lowered heights over the NA side of the NH as we headed into Nov.  Without this change in strength and position to the strat any -EPO influences throughout the 2-3week period of BN we saw in Nov would have been greatly muted by the underlying base state that is La Nina, the same way the current MJO pulse through warm phases, although the effects of which have led to this mild AN period, is being muted by convection near the dateline and the lingering effects and position of the strat.    

So while yes you were correct in that the pattern changed in Nov, initially your timing was off by 10-14days, and the reasoning behind the why was only a tiny piece of the big picture.  So lets all cont to remain humble and cont to learn from each rather than go against one another.    

OCT 25th-OCT 30th




OCT25th-NOV5th




OCT30th-NOV10th



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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 5.25""
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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