Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:53 am

Scott not looking to get into any arguments with you but you need to read pages 2 through 5 in the long-range thread again. It just wasn't an Aleutian Ridge negative WPO/EPO but it was a record-breaking ridge. Combine that with the impressive drop of the Arctic oscillation with the snow-covered Canada and all indicators pointed to cold in our area. I'm not calling anybody out but mugs and I were correct with November ending up below normal. all of the other post I read were transient shots of cold and November ending up + 2 to + 5. The cold shots we had the last several Winters were all EPO driven. The Pacific is the most important factor in determining our weather. There's no arguing that. Of all the posts I've read and long-range guidance, there weren't many who thought November would end up solidly below normal for Central Park.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:57 am

On another note Scott how do you quote something from one thread and podt it into another. Anyway I think you will agree fun times ahead
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:57 am

algae888 wrote: Scott not looking to get into any arguments with you but you need to read pages 2 through 5 in the long-range thread again. It just wasn't an Aleutian Ridge negative WPO/EPO  but it was a record-breaking ridge. Combine that with the impressive drop of the Arctic oscillation with the snow-covered Canada and all indicators pointed to cold in our area. I'm not calling anybody out but mugs and I were correct with November ending up below normal. all of the other post I read were transient shots of cold and November ending up + 2 to + 5. The cold shots we had the last several Winters were all EPO driven. The Pacific is the most important factor in determining our weather. There's no arguing that. Of all the posts I've read and long-range guidance, there weren't many who thought November would end up solidly below normal for Central Park.

I agree I am not looking to argue but rather make this an educated discussion amongsth friends that disaagree or pehaps are looking at the same box from slightly diffrent perspectives.  

Again Al I think you are missing the big picture here.  My point is you missed the changes in the strat the same way I did and your timing was off on when we see the pattern change and lock in.   Here are a few of your quotes as well as mine:
 
by algae888 on Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:12 am
Yes mugs and looks to have staying power. Check out the EPO and where it's headed very negative with the recurving typhoon influence. November looks to start cold. pattern change on the way peeps

Basically days 5 through 7 below normal eight through 10 slightly above normal and day 10+ looks to be significantly below normal Temps with a negative EPO and the ridge bridge over top.

Get ready for some winter weather in about a week to ten days. All major models mighty cold. Could see some white too!! Very Happy



On page 3 a day later I responded with this:

by sroc4 on Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:05 am

I have to be honest here, and I'm hoping I'm wrong, it just does not look all that cold on a sustainable level; but rather, more on a transient level.  At first glance it may look cold, but I worry that the center of the mean trough actually ends up too far west allowing the SE ridge to rebound enough such that our neck of the woods ends up warm overall due to the SW flow aloft as we end Oct. as well as the first 1-2 weeks of Nov.  This is supported by the MJO forecasts that both Euro and GFS agree on propagating through phase 6 into 7 then possibly 8.   The modeling is starting to support this too.  The EPS is starting to show it more clearly that the GEFS.  Take a look.

Now lets look at the modeling.  Again we have a recurving typhoon and an MJO wave amplification through phases 5-6(which favor cold in the east this time of year) that will amplify the pattern such that by next week we get a nice cold shot.  This is agreed upon in both the EPS and GEFS camps

But unfortunately that seems to only lasts a few days before we rebound into the warm sector

Then the question is to we go back to the cold pattern?  Again I would argue that as we get closer in time we cont to see a trend away from below normal anomalies and move more towards the normal to above normal anomalies in the modeling.  That trend already has begun esp in the Euro ens.  There is a negative anomaly that is consistently showing up off the SW coast.  By day ten on the EPS you can see it aids in the enhancement of the STJ and leads to the Mean trough to be further west over the CONUS in a progressive orientation.  This in turn enhances the SE ridge such that it puts us into the SW flow aloft.  Day 13 and day 15 hint at a similar orientation.....

...I still think given the base state of the atmosphere and the current MJO forecasts sustained cold in the east is not in the cards just yet through the first 1-2 weeks of Nov.  Again I REALLY hope I'm wrong but I just don't see it yet.


Again your response same day followed by mine:
by algae888 on Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:39 am

Scott only one other thing that you haven't looked at and that is the EPO forecast which is supposed to be very negative late month into November. I also thinks as the wavelengths start lengthening as we head into November the models are having a tough time picking up how far east the cold will come. With the ridging over Alaska and the EPO region and also in the Nao domain I can't help but think that we will be cold here.

by sroc4 on Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:05 pm
-EPO yes, but -NAO. I don't think the look is a true negative NAO(blocking over Greenland vs just anomalous Ridging in the N Atlantic as an extention of the SE/Bermuda ridge. The difference is I'm not seeing the true ridge bridge over the Arctic that forces the cold air south and keeps it there. This time of year I do not believe the -EPO, albeit forecasted strongly neg, is enough. Initially yes because of the amplification of the recurving typhoon, but after that as we head into the 7-15 day time frame this does not look like a -NAO at all. Neutral at best. The ens mean agrees with me. Climatology does not favor a cold/dense enough air mass from the -EPO alone to hit AND hold given the trop Pac influence on the big picture. Without a -NAO the -EPO discharges a cold, but not frigid air mass yet but the underlying influences from the MJO and ENSO status leads to it digging into the central plains but then lifting out over the GL rather than reaching the EC with any staying power. Again transient shots maybe but its a long way off so we shall see. This is simply my interpretation of course and might def be incorrect.


This entire discussion between the two of us between the 21st-22nd was based on what you thought was going to lock in at the end of Oct early Nov.  Which 100% unequivocally did not happen.  I simply argued that the pattern wasn't quite ready to flip despite the neg EPO/WPO without influence from somewhere else.  You also called for a neg NAO during this time frame which also did not happen.  Here are the temp departures (NOT in *F) for the last 7days of Oct and the first 7days of NOV..WARM




It was actualy MUGS that first pointed out the perturbation on the strat on the 22nd

A coupledays later your prediction of winter weather on the way moved to :
by algae888 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:40 pm
mugs that is great! temps over the next few weeks look to get back to normal which is a BIG PATTERN CHANGE!

After this comment you didn't comment until Nov 4th where you posted the NWS discussion

Yes mugs are first arctic front of the season. Nws disco about the arctic frontal boundary going to push through in about 4days....  

Now I will admit on Nov 2nd I made this comment:

My point here is be really careful how much stock we put into any significant cold this month.  I expect a few transient shots but when all is said and done expect a warm month overall.  IF the MJO does in fact get into phase 2 then a decent cold shot is def possible.  The past 7days the GFS has actually been better at handling the MJO outcome so the cool shot coming in a week or so may be real.


And made this comment on Nov 5th:

...With the -WPO and -EPO locked in for the time being as Al points out if there is any ridging in the west the cold air spills east even with a +NAO and +AO.  We will likely see this happen heading into next weekend.  Like has been said by Al and Mugs(also Al), Al squared) Canada is building cold and snow so when we get the cold to come it should be cold!   What I will say is there is a chance that the ridge bridge being showed in the image below at the 500mb level would likely promote HP dominating over Siberia.  This might give us a really good chance at a true wave 1 or wave 2 attack on our strat. and increased chances at a SSWE headed into early part of Dec.  [b]I'm still confident that Nov will likely end the month normal 2-5+ above normal T, but we will see.[/b]  Remember if you see an amplified MJO forecast ask yourself does the LR model forecast agree or disagree with it.  If the MJO forecast remains consistently amplified in the colder phases expect the models to correct to that.  If the MJO looks to go into warm phases expect the models to correct to that.  And if we get a SSWE once again expect model mayhem until we get closer


Nov 8th I finally conceded on the colder soln for the month with this statement.  

by sroc4 on Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:13 am

I have a new outlook on the next month or so. Turns out I had the answer the whole time, but failed to look at ALL the information. I got stuck in one spot. Hint: To find the answers as to the why you must look to the heavens. Remember there are pattern drivers and pattern enhancers.



Again Al I have been on what has been happening throughout adjusting as we go along.  You have as well.  Initially you were off as seen by your forecast of winter weather as we enetered Nov and calling for the -NAO and -NAO early on in themodeling to compliment the -EPO/-WPO, but adjusted as we moved forward as well.  So to be quite honest we have complimented each other fairly nicely throughout, and for the most part we finally are in agreement on the big picture moving forward.  I am sure the lurkers have enjoyed the back and forth between the two but I am glad that we can do so with respect for one another.  Too often on other boards disagreements get ugly and out of hand.  With that Cheers to cold and hopefully snow in the not so distant future.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:32 am

Yes Scott all good there's nothing more enjoyable than discussing weather. And yes I did miss the start of the cold in November it actually began November 7th which I was calling for at the beginning of November. But I did get the month right and Scott I'm nowhere as knowledgeable as you are others on here. always learning. when there's things that I see in a pattern that I like I'll run with it. sometimes I get burnt but I'll take my risks with them
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by amugs on Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:34 am

Here it is inland snow starved folks - tihs could be a kick start to winter for ya

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:10 pm

amugs wrote:Here it is inland snow starved folks - tihs could be a kick start to winter for ya

Weenie tastic!


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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Here it is inland snow starved folks - tihs could be a kick start to winter for ya

Weenie tastic!


Omgggg that’s a week away!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:58 pm

Soul where have you been. It's really very quiet on here with such a great pattern coming up. It's probably because of the last two or three Decembers that is very hard to believe that this December is going to be cold and very likely snowy where's CP
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by EnyapWeather on Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:07 pm

I'm... dreaming of a white.... Christmas santa
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by track17 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:12 pm

Does the coast have to wait until January for a chance or do we have a shot

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:43 pm

track17 wrote:Does the coast have to wait until January for a chance or do we have a shot

There's a shot.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:54 pm

algae888 wrote:Soul where have you been. It's really very quiet on here with such a great pattern coming up. It's probably because of the last two or three Decembers that is very hard to believe that this December is going to be cold and very likely snowy where's CP

Hi Al! I’ve been quietly following along while trying not to get any hopes up after that stressful hurricane season. But you know, once I start seeing snow maps, I just can’t contain it any longer lol

December is definitely looking more promising than the last several. Most agree.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by track17 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:56 pm

Cool Frank I will take a shot thanks

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by SENJsnowman on Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
track17 wrote:Does the coast have to wait until January for a chance or do we have a shot

There's a shot.


cheerscheerscheers

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:18 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Here it is inland snow starved folks - tihs could be a kick start to winter for ya

Weenie tastic!


Omgggg that’s a week away!

where do we sign!!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by frank 638 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:22 pm

I am happy with that I will take it .not a bad way to start off Dec

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Vinnydula on Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:54 pm

Did we just have an earthquake in Westchester
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by frank 638 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:09 pm

I just got an alert from Channel 7 and they will sing NYC felt an earthquake of 5.1 I didn't get a chance to read the whole story cuz I'm at work I did not feel anything

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Vinnydula on Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:12 pm

Thanks I know I'm not losing my mind.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:20 pm


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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Vinnydula on Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:23 pm

Never felt one but knew what it was right away.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:17 pm

amugs wrote:Here it is inland snow starved folks - tihs could be a kick start to winter for ya

Amugs. Not to bust your balls too much but the look on this map you posted would CRUSH the coast and jackpot the S and E folks again. Just look at the weenie map totals. Godzilla amounts on the coast baby. LETS GOOOOOOO!!!!! geek Question
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by amugs on Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:39 pm

Where it was felt

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:40 pm

Nothing here near Scranton
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by amugs on Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:40 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:Here it is inland snow starved folks - tihs could be a kick start to winter for ya

Amugs.  Not to bust your balls too much but the look on this map you posted would CRUSH the coast and jackpot the S and E folks again.  Just look at the weenie map totals. Godzilla amounts on the coast baby.  LETS GOOOOOOO!!!!! geek Question

Jimbooooooo LOL not at all. Boundary layer along the coast may have issues but you'll jackpot watch!!

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