Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Page 23 of 41 Previous  1 ... 13 ... 22, 23, 24 ... 32 ... 41  Next

Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:52 pm

That post from CT met and Ryan Hannrahan who I went to high school with (total d bag) but if they know thier stuff I am going to bed with no expectation of more than a dusting by morning and a inch or two by end of day....Of course my parents in CT are in the center of the bullseye where they think maybe 2 feet only 70 miles away, whiy did I move here lol
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14747
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:54 pm

I wish I could have a drink but taking antibiotics for bronchitis and I am coughing again despite feeling almost 100% better a day or two ago, only two days to go on meds. Can't mess it up with the booze.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14747
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Scullybutcher on Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:07 am

I can’t believe TWC isn’t live all night
avatar
Scullybutcher
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 434
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-02-06
Location : North Smithtown, western Suffolk county, long island

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:42 am

So I’m posting here rather than in the storm thread because the coastal and Long Island guys are having too much fun over there to interrupt. lol. But my quick take this morning is the models that we were doubting were largely right on this. To Frank’s credit he never saw this as an interior NJ storm eve in his final map that upped totals. But clearly the outlier here were the models (NAM and short range) that showed all of NJ and LHV getting 8,9, 10”. The other models consistently showed a big hit for South Jersey, the immediate coast and Long Island with most of central and north jersey coming up on the short end. We kept seeing maps where even as the low center moved west on the models the heavier snow did not. The models always had a decent hit for the coastal areas but we kept noting that even as the models trended west the inland areas didn’t appear to do any better. If you’ve watched the radar since 4 am that is exactly what has happened. The Low has been further west but the heaviest snow largely confined right along the coast and over LI. The models I think, correctly forecast the dry slotting over most of central and north jersey. The heavier bands just aren’t making it inland. So I have to tip my cap to the globals (and Frank) because I think they were closer to correct than we’re giving credit. (I will admit my folly if the heavier bands make it to my area before this winds down this afternoon - but right now I have maybe 1” and I can’t see ending up with more than 3 or 4 here).
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2163
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by docstox12 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:01 am

billg, I agree with you.We are just not getting into the real heavy stuff and as time goes on, it gets harder to believe that HRRR model before that showed me getting nearly a foot.Your guess of 3 to 4 inches if this does not get in gear is a good one.Let's see what we wind up with at the end of the day before we acknowledge anybody or any models prediction.
avatar
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6098
Reputation : 95
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 67
Location : Monroe NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:37 am

docstox12 wrote:billg, I agree with you.We are just not getting into the real heavy stuff and as time goes on, it gets harder to believe that HRRR model before that showed me getting nearly a foot.Your guess of 3 to 4 inches if this does not get in gear is a good one.Let's see what we wind up with at the end of the day before we acknowledge anybody or any models prediction.

I was thinking along the same lines but now that we're under the 25 dbz bands it's getting pretty crazy out. The LI'ers under those 30-40 and Jersey shore must be insane.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5797
Reputation : 131
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 56
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by docstox12 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:44 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:billg, I agree with you.We are just not getting into the real heavy stuff and as time goes on, it gets harder to believe that HRRR model before that showed me getting nearly a foot.Your guess of 3 to 4 inches if this does not get in gear is a good one.Let's see what we wind up with at the end of the day before we acknowledge anybody or any models prediction.

I was thinking along the same lines but now that we're under the 25 dbz bands it's getting pretty crazy out. The LI'ers under those 30-40 and Jersey shore must be insane.

CP, that HRRR is still in play.Wife just got back from Shop Rite.Looks like 2 inches or so right now.
avatar
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6098
Reputation : 95
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 67
Location : Monroe NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:49 am

billg315 wrote:So I’m posting here rather than in the storm thread because the coastal and Long Island guys are having too much fun over there to interrupt. lol. But my quick take this morning is the models that we were doubting were largely right on this. To Frank’s credit he never saw this as an interior NJ storm eve in his final map that upped totals. But clearly the outlier here were the models (NAM and short range) that showed all of NJ and LHV getting 8,9, 10”. The other models consistently showed a big hit for South Jersey, the immediate coast and Long Island with most of central and north jersey coming up on the short end. We kept seeing maps where even as the low center moved west on the models the heavier snow did not. The models always had a decent hit for the coastal areas but we kept noting that even as the models trended west the inland areas didn’t appear to do any better. If you’ve watched the radar since 4 am that is exactly what has happened. The Low has been further west but the heaviest snow largely confined right along the coast and over LI. The models I think, correctly forecast the dry slotting over most of central and north jersey. The heavier bands just aren’t making it inland. So I have to tip my cap to the globals (and Frank) because I think they were closer to correct than we’re giving credit. (I will admit my folly if the heavier bands make it to my area before this winds down this afternoon - but right now I have maybe 1” and I can’t see ending up with more than 3 or 4 here).

Thanks Bill, only thing I would say is I feel the globals were pretty putrid. Some of them did not show any snow for parts of central and western NJ. The meso models may have overdone it a bit but that is why I try to lean less on models when formulating my snow maps. At this point of my life a lot of my snow maps are based off instinct / experience with models as the primary resource, to be honest.

3 to 6 is pretty good. I remember getting excited about those storms.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18157
Reputation : 244
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:57 am

NAM IS NEW KING. PERIOD!
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3572
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:58 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
billg315 wrote:So I’m posting here rather than in the storm thread because the coastal and Long Island guys are having too much fun over there to interrupt. lol. But my quick take this morning is the models that we were doubting were largely right on this. To Frank’s credit he never saw this as an interior NJ storm eve in his final map that upped totals. But clearly the outlier here were the models (NAM and short range) that showed all of NJ and LHV getting 8,9, 10”. The other models consistently showed a big hit for South Jersey, the immediate coast and Long Island with most of central and north jersey coming up on the short end. We kept seeing maps where even as the low center moved west on the models the heavier snow did not. The models always had a decent hit for the coastal areas but we kept noting that even as the models trended west the inland areas didn’t appear to do any better. If you’ve watched the radar since 4 am that is exactly what has happened. The Low has been further west but the heaviest snow largely confined right along the coast and over LI. The models I think, correctly forecast the dry slotting over most of central and north jersey. The heavier bands just aren’t making it inland. So I have to tip my cap to the globals (and Frank) because I think they were closer to correct than we’re giving credit. (I will admit my folly if the heavier bands make it to my area before this winds down this afternoon - but right now I have maybe 1” and I can’t see ending up with more than 3 or 4 here).

Thanks Bill, only thing I would say is I feel the globals were pretty putrid. Some of them did not show any snow for parts of central and western NJ. The meso models may have overdone it a bit but that is why I try to lean less on models when formulating my snow maps. At this point of my life a lot of my snow maps are based off instinct / experience with models as the primary resource, to be honest.

3 to 6 is pretty good. I remember getting excited about those storms.

Yeah some models did underdo it, but I guess just in the more general sense that this was a coastal event more than an interior they seemed to sniff out.
I agree with you 100%. I always viewed a 3-6” storm as a good hit. Everyone wants a Godzilla but they are hard to come by. Give me a 3-6 and I’m happy. I think your 3-6 call for this area is spot on. I’m about 2” now so I think I’ll easily get over 3 maybe up to 5? Heck maybe 6 if I could get just one of those heavy bands.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2163
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:01 am

syosnow94 wrote:NAM IS NEW KING. PERIOD!
Lol. For YOU! It had me getting almost a foot on that one run yesterday. Not close in these parts.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2163
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:00 pm

I forget whether it was CP or Doc or both who pointed out a couple days ago when it was a “1-3” event for almost the whole area that we’re better off starting there and working up than starting with the 30” maps that never seem to pan out. Proven true yet again. If nothing else it at least starts expectations in a realistic place so a 6” snowfall is considered a good thing - as it should be.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2163
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:30 pm

syosnow94 wrote:NAM IS NEW KING. PERIOD!

ALL HAIL KING NAM.

EURO goes to the pit of misery, dilly dilly!
avatar
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1911
Reputation : 26
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by HectorO on Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:50 pm

https://www.facebook.com/VicComedy/videos/902962759879956/ Hope you guys can see this. It's hilarious
avatar
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 725
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2013-01-11

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:09 pm

lol. NO dilly dilly for the NAM sorry! On Tuesday's 12z it had me with about 2" and about 8 or 9" at the shore. Then the 18z went east and showed even lesser amounts north and west. Then on Wednesday's 6z it had me with 12" and 20" with ratios. I ended up with about 5.5". A model that in a period of 24 hours went from grossly underestimating to grossly overestimating gets no pats on the back from me. It was close to accurate for the coast but to a certain extent that was never in question. Everyone knew the coast was getting plastered and that was pretty consistent, it was just a matter of how much. The real question was how far west would the precipitation get and in that regard the NAM was as all over the place as any other model. In the end if you took all the models as a whole, and didn't read them literally to the exact amount or the exact cutoff, they all indicated that the further east you were you were likely to get a big snow and the further west you were the closer you would be to a cutoff. In that regard, while on specifics none of them was particularly good, the general idea wasn't all wrong.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2163
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:29 pm

Now that this powerful storm is winding down, a bit of perspective. When this storm first showed up on models 7 days ago, we knew there was plenty of potential yet the pattern was also delicate. Think about it, we had no blocking to work with and we still ended up with a triple phased event; the ultimate thread the needle. This could of easily been a small or non event. The past week was an exhausting one for me. I more or less threw in the towel twice, only to see the models bring it back west. I'm a believer that snow breeds snow. This could very well be one of those winters where we cash in on the "white gold" even when the pattern may say otherwise.
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1400
Reputation : 31
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 51
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:46 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:NAM IS NEW KING. PERIOD!

ALL HAIL KING NAM.

EURO goes to the pit of misery, dilly dilly!
Yep. Nam nailed this storm alright. Remember the Not A Model jokes, we must never make fun of this model again. I now have renewed respect for it.
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1400
Reputation : 31
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 51
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:56 pm

Grrrr. I give up. Lol.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2163
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:42 pm

avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1983
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:37 pm

CMC next 10 days snowfall, we are not done before the thaw. I for one really need it not to snow the 13-15th as I will be doing a lot of driving that weekend, everytime I try to go on a trip so far since October something has gotten in the way.

avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14747
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:43 pm

Guys I think you will love some Vic anger about these terms recently used. Fair warning a few not child friendly words. hilarious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZc6wUcnHpA
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14747
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:10 am

jmanley32 wrote:Guys I think you will love some Vic anger about these terms recently used. Fair warning a few not child friendly words. hilarious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZc6wUcnHpA

ha ha did you see my post 2 above same guy...
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1983
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by HectorO on Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:25 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Funny Guy...bomb cyclone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgqY-ojvNUQ

Literally posted this before everyone else and now there's like 5 posts of him lol.
avatar
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 725
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2013-01-11

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:46 pm

Today was brutal. Had my mother in laws funeral and thank god the priest did the express service as we shivered in the wind all bundled up.

We had to postpone the funeral from Thursday to today for obvious reasons.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9478
Reputation : 102
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:50 pm

amugs wrote:Today was brutal. Had my mother in laws funeral and thank god the priest did the express service as we shivered in the wind all bundled up.

We had to postpone the funeral from Thursday to today for obvious reasons.

Sorry for your loss mugs
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4010
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 23 of 41 Previous  1 ... 13 ... 22, 23, 24 ... 32 ... 41  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum