Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:02 am

My infrequent posting this winter is a result of taking on more responsibility at work, virtually not having free time on weekends for various reasons, and trying to save money to move out into an apartment then potentially buy a home next year. Aka no WeatherBell or StormVista subscriptions for me. At least not this winter...

I've been getting questions so felt I needed to address that.

Have a good day Smile

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:43 am

Frank_Wx wrote:My infrequent posting this winter is a result of taking on more responsibility at work, virtually not having free time on weekends for various reasons, and trying to save money to move out into an apartment then potentially buy a home next year. Aka no WeatherBell or StormVista subscriptions for me. At least not this winter...

I've been getting questions so felt I needed to address that.

Have a good day Smile

Frank you have done more than enough work and given more than enough passion to this site over the years. I know what it’s like to have to take some time away from the hobby (seems like an inadequate word for what we do here) to focus on personal and professional priorities. Good luck with work and the apartment/house hunt. It will all pay off for you long run. Do hope to see you back to regular posting as soon as possible though. :-) Miss your insight. But there will be people here to step into the breach in the meantime. I’m trying to step up my game on here of late myself.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:16 am

Moved from storm thread

syosnow94 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:And, as we have seen many times, the 12Z NAM run two days out begins the drastic NW shift.  This is just the beginning.  Before you know it, Doc and CP will have mixing issues...

You really have become a negative Nancy since you moved to the city.  What happened to you?

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:30 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Moved from storm thread

syosnow94 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:And, as we have seen many times, the 12Z NAM run two days out begins the drastic NW shift.  This is just the beginning.  Before you know it, Doc and CP will have mixing issues...

You really have become a negative Nancy since you moved to the city.  What happened to you?

Don't you remember 3/14/17? You probably do. It was your 45th birthday. Up until 2-3 days out, it was seen on the models to be a major to historic snowstorm for the city and coast. Then the NW shift began. We then ended up with a mix NYC south and east.

As the band "The Who" would say, "Won't Get Fooled Again"

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:41 am

Math23x7 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Moved from storm thread

syosnow94 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:And, as we have seen many times, the 12Z NAM run two days out begins the drastic NW shift.  This is just the beginning.  Before you know it, Doc and CP will have mixing issues...

You really have become a negative Nancy since you moved to the city.  What happened to you?

Don't you remember 3/14/17?  You probably do.  It was your 45th birthday.  Up until 2-3 days out, it was seen on the models to be a major to historic snowstorm for the city and coast.  Then the NW shift began.  We then ended up with a mix NYC south and east.  

As the band "The Who" would say, "Won't Get Fooled Again"

I take no position on the analysis as lots of possibilities are on the table right now. But I like the song reference. Thumbs up for any reference to The Who.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by RJB8525 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:43 am

we all need to start getting along better, the bs i've been reading has to stop guys last night was very negative i didn't even want to post.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:49 am

Math23x7 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Moved from storm thread

syosnow94 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:And, as we have seen many times, the 12Z NAM run two days out begins the drastic NW shift.  This is just the beginning.  Before you know it, Doc and CP will have mixing issues...

You really have become a negative Nancy since you moved to the city.  What happened to you?

Don't you remember 3/14/17?  You probably do.  It was your 45th birthday.  Up until 2-3 days out, it was seen on the models to be a major to historic snowstorm for the city and coast.  Then the NW shift began.  We then ended up with a mix NYC south and east.  

As the band "The Who" would say, "Won't Get Fooled Again"

Mike you did forget to mention NYC received almost 8 inches from that storm, it wasn't exactly a shutout.

Love your Who reference though. One of my top 5 of all time, along with Petty of course.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by mikeypizano on Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:08 am

RJB8525 wrote:we all need to start getting along better, the bs i've been reading has to stop guys last night was very negative i didn't even want to post.

That's a good reason why I don't come here much anymore. No one cares about anything other than NYC and surrounding area really, so for me it is useless to post much since I am far enough inland to get screwed on coastals a lot and no one cares about any inland runners...
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by rb924119 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:47 am

mikeypizano wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:we all need to start getting along better, the bs i've been reading has to stop guys last night was very negative i didn't even want to post.

That's a good reason why I don't come here much anymore. No one cares about anything other than NYC and surrounding area really, so for me it is useless to post much since I am far enough inland to get screwed on coastals a lot and no one cares about any inland runners...

Not true, Mike. It just so happens that the large majority of posters reside near the I-95 which is why you see increased posting and excitement when it shows a big snow hit there. I personally love when the coast rains because that's when we get our best snows as the north and west crew. By the same token, they love when we suck virga because that means they get the best banding. It's all a product of location. This goes back to the discussion I was having with track last night.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by WeatherBob on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:11 pm

Hey Mike, RB has a good point. If you look at the member map, the concentration of members are in the I95 corridor, LHV and east and central LI. I believe you are in east central PA or close? Anyway , my familiarity for forecasting and focus for 40 years has been the NY metro area and western NJ. I don’t mean to disrespect your location or you but I really don’t care about much outside of that area. It has to do with my comfortability and weather that affect me , my family and friends. I am sorry you feel that way but human nature has a lot to play with it.

PS- you are a valuable spotter when it comes to observations when events are happening. Maybe you can look at it that way!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by TheAresian on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:24 pm

I live way inland and I used to feel that way when I first started coming here, Mike. But even if the details are NYC related, there is still a ton to be gained. So much of the talk here is pattern related that just following the posts will teach you a lot and everybody is great about taking the time to educate on points so you slowly (in my case very very slowly) start seeing how all of the different points will affect areas closer to home. And, on a personal note, I find no end of entertainment in using the few terms and concepts I understand to totally confuse my family the same way I feel confused when guys like Iso go top level knowledge in their posts.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by WeatherBob on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:30 pm

Great comments TheA, I kinna take that stuff for granted since I have been following the weather my whole life and was schooled in Meteorology.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by rb924119 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:34 pm

Mike and Aresian, when I actually start putting maps out next season, like I had done last year and seasons prior, this is the forecast area I will be paying attention to:



So EVERYBODY will be included in my analyses. The reason why I haven't done any and have just been broadbrushing everything is because I don't have all of the tools that I normally do to actually forecast to the level I am used to/like to/am capable of, and I have been spending much more time on the project instead of forecasting. This will change next season.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by mikeypizano on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:38 pm

On that map, I am between Wilkes Barre and Scranton, near the county line.

I have no idea what you people are talking about 99% of the time and I just look at the pretty pictures... Wink
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by mikeypizano on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:42 pm

WeatherBob wrote:PS- you are a valuable spotter when it comes to observations when events are happening.  Maybe you can look at it that way!

Only when it comes from the west to the east though... Laughing
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by rb924119 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:43 pm

mikeypizano wrote:On that map, I am between Wilkes Barre and Scranton, near the county line.

I have no idea what you people are talking about 99% of the time and I just look at the pretty pictures... Wink

I know where you are haha my house is just sbive the "a" in Wilkes-Barre lol and you'll learn Smile

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by mikeypizano on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:47 pm

rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:On that map, I am between Wilkes Barre and Scranton, near the county line.

I have no idea what you people are talking about 99% of the time and I just look at the pretty pictures... Wink

I know where you are haha my house is just sbive the "a" in Wilkes-Barre lol and you'll learn Smile

Ever go through the valley at all?
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by SNOW MAN on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:51 pm

Sorry I haven't been posting at all. I haven't had power since 11:45am Friday and we're not expecting it to come back on until Wednesday. I'm writing you from my local ford dealer that has power and free internet. I'll post when I can, but it looks like we're going to get hit again.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by rb924119 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:52 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:On that map, I am between Wilkes Barre and Scranton, near the county line.

I have no idea what you people are talking about 99% of the time and I just look at the pretty pictures... Wink

I know where you are haha my house is just sbive the "a" in Wilkes-Barre lol and you'll learn Smile

Ever go through the valley at all?

Only for shopping haha or going on 81

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by rb924119 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:54 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:Sorry I haven't been posting at all. I haven't had power since 11:45am Friday and we're not expecting it to come back on until Wednesday. I'm writing you from my local ford dealer that has power and free internet. I'll post when I can, but it looks like we're going to get hit again.

Agree strongly. Oh geeze, you are in the same boat as my parents haha I honestly think if you get it back before Tuesday afternoon you won't have it for a while still with this storm.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:59 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Hey Mike, RB has a good point. If you look at the member map, the concentration of members are in the I95 corridor, LHV and east and central LI.  I believe you are in east central PA or close?  Anyway , my familiarity for forecasting and focus for 40 years has been the NY metro area and western NJ.  I don’t mean to disrespect your location or you but I really don’t care about much outside of that area.  It has to do with my comfortability and weather that affect me , my family and friends.  I am sorry you feel that way but human nature has a lot to play with it.  

PS- you are a valuable spotter when it comes to observations when events are happening.  Maybe you can look at it that way!

This such a great point. I personally also tend to focus on my own little micro climate here on LI when forecasting details, but do my best to forecast for the entire area. Every area has its own nuances, and the areas of the foothills to my N&W I am least familiar with. I think NYC is a good focal point from which the rest of the members on this board reside as you spread out in a radius that encompasses 360*. It just so happens, like the actual population density of the geographic area, the population density of the members of this site appear to be concentrated around NYC as its focal point, and less concentrated as you move further away..esp N&W. As a result when a model run comes out that shows a good hit for an area that has a large population of members, esp ones that routinely comment, you are going to get the wide eyed "OMG thats a great run!" type comments even if that means great run for some, but not for others.

Now the Aresian...bravo sir. This is the way to handle the fact that he is likely not going to benefit from when the majority of the board is in a great position for a snow storm. Mikey P. Unlike how it was handled by one individual last night you also have a mature way to handle it in that I havent heard much about it from you when your disappointed.

Winter is almost over, and everyone can all take a deep breath and unwind from an overall frustrating winter soon enough. We still have at least 2 systems to track. The more advanced forecasters in here typically do a great job keeping things generalized, but speaking for myself, if a storm is coming that will affect "the majority" of our members, I will call it a great storm. If you dont get what your want be mature about it and be happy fro those who did. After all its no ones fault.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by mikeypizano on Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:10 pm

That comes from knowing how weather is and being screwed many times. I’ve seen years where Phili gets hammered, I get nothing. I rely on snow to make money, so it sucks but nothing I can do...

Rb if you ever pass through let me know.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:28 pm

It’s funny but this weekend I was going to post something that is basically an amalgam of a lot of what was just said by multiple people here (I held off when things got testy last night because I didn’t want it mistaken as a rebuke to any particular person or persons). We all tend to have some geographic bias to our own area. It has two parts: 1.) we’re most interested in how the weather will impact us directly; 2.) we all bring a little specialized knowledge of the weather in our own location and we like to share that localized knowledge/expertise. (I grew up in Philly before moving to NJ. I can tell you how northeast Philly resists changeovers and stays snow longer than the rest of the city because it’s a higher elevation than the rest of the city. And how Montgomery,Bucks or Chester counties will snow even when the city and South Jersey goes to rain. But nobody on this board would care because we have no members from there).
Presently having lived in a Central/North Jersey for almost ten years that is the area I know best. It also is fairly centrally located on our member map so maybe I selfishly think it’s a good spot to talk about :-)
That said it doesn’t mean I don’t care about how the weather is for others on this board. I try to think about those impacts and include them in my comments. And I try to answer questions for board members who maybe are uncertain what’s expected in their locale. So while my heart is very much Central Jersey-centric I try to offer thoughts for everyone everywhere on the board. But I may not be the best person to ask if it’s not close to me. For instance I’d never try to tell Scott or Alex what’s going to happen on LI because they know the local factors there better than I.
Ultimately this is a board with members covering a large geographic area ((which is a testament to this site). There will almost always be winners or losers on this site because the area is so large and geographically diverse. I mean we have members near beaches, oceans, bays, mountains, valleys, urban heat islands, everything you can imagine. At any given moment three members on this board could have rain, snow and sunshine respectively at the same time. It’s what makes forecasting in this region so challenging . . . And fun!
So if someone else is getting “the goods” from a storm and seems to think a model is a great run, when you feel you’re getting shafted by warm air aloft or an ill-placed dry slot, just shrug it off. Next time you may hold the winning lottery ticket. :-)
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by TheAresian on Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:Mike and Aresian, when I actually start putting maps out next season, like I had done last year and seasons prior, this is the forecast area I will be paying attention to:



So EVERYBODY will be included in my analyses. The reason why I haven't done any and have just been broadbrushing everything is because I don't have all of the tools that I normally do to actually forecast to the level I am used to/like to/am capable of, and I have been spending much more time on the project instead of forecasting. This will change next season.

I appreciate that, rb and for as much as we all benefit from the input of guys like you and Frank (not discounting others here,believe me) ,I think we all understand that off board matters take precedence. And Mikey, if you think you're a ways out, look at the map. I'm just across the county line west of Elmira on the western edge of the map. If you're Earth to the I95 corridor sun, then I'm Pluto. And NO Uranus jokes from the OTI section of the crowd.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by mikeypizano on Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:55 pm

TheAresian wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Mike and Aresian, when I actually start putting maps out next season, like I had done last year and seasons prior, this is the forecast area I will be paying attention to:



So EVERYBODY will be included in my analyses. The reason why I haven't done any and have just been broadbrushing everything is because I don't have all of the tools that I normally do to actually forecast to the level I am used to/like to/am capable of, and I have been spending much more time on the project instead of forecasting. This will change next season.

I appreciate that, rb and for as much as we all benefit from the input of guys like you and Frank (not discounting others here,believe me) ,I think we all understand that off board matters take precedence. And Mikey, if you think you're a ways out, look at the map. I'm just across the county line west of Elmira on the western edge of the map. If you're Earth to the I95 corridor sun, then I'm Pluto. And NO Uranus jokes from the OTI section of the crowd.

Ok I think you win Laughing
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