10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:05 am

Peeps morning
Overnight 0z Euro again is Sandyesque in nature making a landfall at Atantric City and sliding NW to Trenton this would bring high end Troon force winds into the coast and hcane force winds into LI and ELI could see winds around the century mark.

Power outages galore incoming with this storm.
Backside winds after 2-4" of rain is why IMO.
Prepare NWS starting post advisories watches and the like means it's getting serious. This ain't your run of the mill Nor'easter if this model is correct.

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by Radz on Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:24 am

amugs wrote:Peeps morning
Overnight 0z Euro again is Sandyesque in nature making a landfall at Atantric City and sliding NW to Trenton this would bring high end Troon force winds into the coast and hcane force winds into LI and ELI could see winds around the century mark.

Power outages galore incoming with this storm.
Backside winds after 2-4" of rain is why IMO.
Prepare NWS starting post advisories watches and the like means it's getting serious. This ain't your run of the mill Nor'easter if this model is correct.

I totally agree, if projected rainfall amounts are followed by projected wind forecast, tree damage could surpass Sandy's legacy as far as the tree damage in many areas... in my backyard rain was almost non existent with Sandy, but gusts to 60 mph dropped trees left and right...
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:36 am

HOLY SMOKES - 4th straight of EPS showing this - locked and loaded peeps


RADZ - with all the foilage still on trees ad we get a soaking rain this could be for inland areas like you said right up there - just got me gas hitting the store then bank - cash rules. Then getting my friends generator later today as a precaution.

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:36 am

Where would we need the center in order to get stronger winds into NYC and southern Westchester obviously. Li too. Even further south of ac?
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:38 am

Mugs what did the 06z nam look like with that 850 map u posted yesterday still same?
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:02 am





SO far.............

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:08 am

jmanley32 wrote:Where would we need the center in order to get stronger winds into NYC and southern Westchester obviously. Li too. Even further south of ac?
Need the center to hit CAPE MAY and go NW into EPA - I think we will be good not hcane force but mid level to higher end trop force winds

6z NAM has the low of the jersey shore and it rides due NE from here so best winds over CLI into SNE




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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:47 am

Does anyone have info on a start time or better yet when the winds get going. I'm on family camping trip in Cape May NJ. And we leave tomorrow
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:01 am

Wow kinda wish I was back at my parents in CT they go get crushed by those winds. I wonder if NYC will get a hww advisory nothing to write home about.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:24 am

Patents are coming into JFK Monday from tel aviv u think b canceled or delayed?
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by Quietace on Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:43 am

jmanley32 wrote:Patents are coming into JFK Monday from tel aviv u think b canceled or delayed?
Considering that if JFK does not have a ground stop, they will only be using 13L/R because 22L/R will have a SEVERE crosswind, their rates are going to be significantly disrupted which will lead to a huge quantity of cancellations.

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:00 am

NMA 12K just dropped the sledge hammer


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by Scullybutcher on Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:15 am

amugs wrote:NMA 12K just dropped the sledge hammer






What does that equate to on the ground?
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:18 am

Scullybutcher wrote:
amugs wrote:NMA 12K just dropped the sledge hammer






What does that equate to on the ground?

these are sustained, rb once told me maybe 50-60% mixes down so 65 kts is 75mph about. So 40mph sustained in the purple areas possible gusts easily to or over 50mph.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by Scullybutcher on Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:38 am

Thanks Jman
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by TheAresian on Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:42 pm

Looking at hr 42 on the 12z GFS run. Are there really going to be two distinct lows or is this a problem with the GFS handling the run?
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:09 pm

TheAresian wrote:Looking at hr 42 on the 12z GFS run. Are there really going to be two distinct lows or is this a problem with the GFS handling the run?

I noticed that too, not only on GFS, saw it on other models too, don't think there is a phase this run. Don't understand the flash flood watch though for NNJ. 3" of rain for the event won't really pose much of a threat. Models showing the heaviest rate at .5"/hr for NNJ. LI is a different story...

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:58 pm

Momma Mia UKIE



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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:59 pm

GEFS have finally come into EURO and EPS camp Finally!!!


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:12 pm

Mugs look at he I believe 42 of euro max gusts holy crap 95 mph plus over all li. 60 to 80 NYC area and north. Inching west on the worst winds. That's overnight sun that's go be a crazy night if true! Then backend more in the 50 to 65 moh range.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Mugs look at he I believe 42 of euro max gusts holy crap 95 mph plus over all li. 60 to 80 NYC area and north. Inching west on the worst winds. That's overnight sun that's go be a crazy night if true! Then backend more in the 50 to 65 moh range.

are the winds supposed to be as bad for the jersey coast as well?
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:06 pm

I'll post the wind map when I get to conputer.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:11 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Mugs look at he I believe 42 of euro max gusts holy crap 95 mph plus over all li. 60 to 80 NYC area and north. Inching west on the worst winds. That's overnight sun that's go be a crazy night if true! Then backend more in the 50 to 65 moh range.

are the winds supposed to be as bad for the jersey coast as well?

Momma - get ready you are going to get pounded - YIKES!!

Euro wind map - albeit overdone a bit but look at this potential and it shifted the axis a good 35 miles more west.



BTW where the H is everyone?? this is going to be a bad arse storm one that may rival 2010 and 1992 winds

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:13 pm

Euro absorbs the entire tropical system says GFS is on crack and even WPC and NWS wel they are the same basically said to toss it




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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:14 pm

This is locked and loaded peeps and if this EURO solution occurs lots will be caught with their pants down.

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