10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

track17 wrote:Notice mugs you don't attack the others who do the same thing. Good forbid you don't agree with everyone or overhype you get attacked. Truth is look at the models it won't be bad for most of nj.

Track,

Attack others? I dont attack anyone on this board and I am sorry if you feel this.
All I ask is if and when you do post such opinion to back it up with some met sense.
Ryan 40-50 mph wind sup here my man will cause damage with 2-3" of rains. Lived up here for 47 years and have witnessed this many times.
Track as far as I have been flowing this storm one I am not over hyping and calling for a disastrous situation like we saw with Sandy.
Two I have been posting models and analysis the entire time and even last week in banter.

Looking at ALL models and I mean all models (LR and SR) (as I post here for everyone to see and explain when I can (not as eloquently or in depth as Sroc and rb) and pro met analysis - JB, JH, Steve the Cop, Bernie Rayno, Ryan Maue, JD, amongst the few, Looking at the models they are coming west and things will be "bad" by my analysis for a good portion of NJ from flooding to power outages overnight. If I am wrong then I go down with my ship.

More model support - GEM LAM


Hi RES RGEM


Upton talking about sting jets in their latest update.

soundings look quite ominous for damaging winds across LI 80-90mph gusts not out of the question.
I think nenj/NYC metro still see good winds probably 55-65mph gusts maybe higher if the storms verifies further west ala EURO
Not opin analysis.
Things to do be back later

And mine was not an opinion I agreed with you many times never said we would not get 40 mph winds at the shore but that is really not that bad. Yes the other areas have it bad. But most local mets in the jersey area not the ny area agree on New Jersey. We just need to remember just because it will be bad in NYC or Long Island does not mean that jersey will get more then 40 mph winds. I am thankful for that. If I am wrong then I am wrong but everything I have seen from what you have posted which I thank you for doing confirms the 40-50 for jersey which is not bad. So I was using what everyone else posted to get my idea. Just like others do.

UKIE MADONNE!!
If this verifies cray cray!!

I think the debate over 40-50 mph winds needs to account for duration. We often get occasional, short-lived 40-50 mph wind gusts (nor'easters, thunderstorms, even just strong pressure gradients behind winter/spring frontal passages) and they don't do that much damage other than some downed branches (which if they hit a power line can cause power outages and if they fall on your house or car kind of makes it irrelevant to you how isolated they are). However, a sustained 40-50 mph wind, or frequent gusts to that speed, for a few hours really isn't that common around here and probably would have the potential to do quite a bit of tree/roof damage. There is a distinction to be made. Anyway, should be interesting to track this thing either way. At least more interesting than having a high pressure area parked over us, right?

amugs wrote:UKIE MADONNE!!
If this verifies cray cray!!

This feels like winter...trying to track and get homework done. Models certainly had their difficulty trying to ingest the phase between both systems. It is pretty apparent the further west/stronger solutions will verify. I mean look at the PWATs that are being transported...

billg315 wrote:I think the debate over 40-50 mph winds needs to account for duration. We often get occasional, short-lived 40-50 mph wind gusts (nor'easters, thunderstorms, even just strong pressure gradients behind winter/spring frontal passages) and they don't do that much damage other than some downed branches (which if they hit a power line can cause power outages and if they fall on your house or car kind of makes it irrelevant to you how isolated they are). However, a sustained 40-50 mph wind, or frequent gusts to that speed, for a few hours really isn't that common around here and probably would have the potential to do quite a bit of tree/roof damage. There is a distinction to be made. Anyway, should be interesting to track this thing either way. At least more interesting than having a high pressure area parked over us, right?

Yes billing great point there on duration now the UKIE dropped teh mic - look at this progression JESUS H one monster low and WEST!!!!!



Goes right over my house and ZOOO's!!

billg315 wrote:I think the debate over 40-50 mph winds needs to account for duration. We often get occasional, short-lived 40-50 mph wind gusts (nor'easters, thunderstorms, even just strong pressure gradients behind winter/spring frontal passages) and they don't do that much damage other than some downed branches (which if they hit a power line can cause power outages and if they fall on your house or car kind of makes it irrelevant to you how isolated they are). However, a sustained 40-50 mph wind, or frequent gusts to that speed, for a few hours really isn't that common around here and probably would have the potential to do quite a bit of tree/roof damage. There is a distinction to be made. Anyway, should be interesting to track this thing either way. At least more interesting than having a high pressure area parked over us, right?

I agree, also topography. Here in NNJ we have hills that tend to break things up as they head east. We had 45 mph winds with Sandy and lost a few older trees that took down power lines, but that was from the east. lately, with all the advisories we've had regarding winds the last few months, they just haven't panned out here in NENJ. But 40-50 mph coming in unobstructed off the Atlantic will be a problem. I will have to try t get a good wind reading later by manually holding my weather station to see what I can get..

Heavy rain here in Wayne. Just turned to lighter rain. With a wet ground at night I would think 40-50 mph winds in NJ will cause down trees and outages. We shall see.

Just shy of an inch of rain when the winds pickup tonight the trees will be at risk

rain has picked up heavy rain now .no wind yet

Almost all of NY has a wind warning even areas north of here so what's Upton wait for upgrade my watch lol. It's apparent it's go exceed 50 mph to as much as 65 mph.

.61" and rain is quite heavy now, many trees still have near full canopies, if winds verify there will be trouble...

.20" overnight here in Binghamton, NY. Just drizzle for the whole day here so far

we are at 1.35 inches already...has been heavy steady down pour. I read my meter wrong..

.5" so far, no wind yet

Been raining steady all day here. Winds are starting to pick up a little now. I think we’re going to be in for a long night on the island.

3km nam is insane 80 to 90 mph gusts long island even to CT mass border. NYC areas just north and east sees 65 to 70 mph gusts

starting to get windy now out of the east 15 mph here we go

wow..just came downstairs again and we are up to 1.53 inches of rain...and the wind is now picking up..about 15 mph

Heavy rain and getting windy now se up to 19 mph  with gust up to 25 mph

Absolutely pouring here and winds are intermittent.

Was in Nyack at the hospital for my father in law (Diverticulitis) and the winds were picking up and gusting there but as I came more west they died down a bit.
Ponding on roads

High Wind watch for eastern Bergen county

https://www.njweather.org/station/287

amugs wrote:Was in Nyack at the hospital for my father in law (Diverticulitis) and the winds were picking up and gusting there but as I came more west they died down a bit.
Ponding on roads

sorry to hear about your FIL..(husband had that surgery in January...rough...but we were lucky to catch it in time..)hope he has a speedy recovery!!
The winds died down right now...but the rain is insane..I am having trouble posting a video...we are currently at 2.38 inches...and this is not the worst of the storm yet?