10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:40 pm

Hi, I have been out of touch(son fractured his ankle at school this week...nightmare..he is still wearing a air cast on his other ankle he fractured in gym earlier)needless to say we will be hibernating this weekend. Are we looking at the worst of the rain coming late in the day? My husband and continuing our family plans and will be driving home early Sunday afternoon. Sorry if this was asked before..just curious...
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:55 pm

Sunday afternoon will begin and go downhill steadily per models.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:56 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hi, I  have been out of touch(son fractured his ankle at school this week...nightmare..he is still wearing a air cast on his other ankle he fractured in gym earlier)needless to say we will be hibernating this weekend. Are we looking at the worst of the rain coming late in the day? My husband and continuing our family plans and will be driving home early Sunday afternoon. Sorry if this was asked before..just curious...

Heaviest will be from 4pm-9pm. But it will still be steady from Noon forward

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by Snow88 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:59 pm

High chance of development for 93 L
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by Snow88 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:08 pm

Another big hit on the Euro

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:09 pm

Snow88 wrote:Another big hit on the Euro


Yes and more west
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:11 pm


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:22 pm

WOWzers, this is one frame the winds are above 40mph gusts for well over 12-18 hrs.



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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:25 pm

Rainfall is well west, if it gets any further west we wont get the bulk of the rain but those winds to the east will become a bigger threat, also looks like the tropical system was almost a full phase, which maybe is a possibility that the euro is hinting at? CMC kicks it out and look how much rain the CMC gave.

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by Snow88 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:30 pm

Euro has about 1.50 inches of rain for the NYC area with a lot more to the north and west. The low goes just south of NYC ( sub 980 )

The winds are bigger factor on this run. Gusts approach 60 + on the south shore of the NYC area, coastal NJ and LI.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:32 pm


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:33 pm

In the city all day and holy poop euro!!


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:43 pm


MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES DUE TO VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE AND MECHANISMS THAT LEAD TO INITIAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A NEGATIVE TILT AND BEGINS TO EJECT...THE 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOWED MORE VARIABILITY. THE 00Z UKMET WAS SLOWEST...IT HAD THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AS IT DIGS INTO THE BASE OF E TROUGH...AND AS A RESULT CLOSED OFF A FAIRLY STRONG LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS RESULTED IN THE MODEL BEING AT LEAST 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AS COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS AND MANY 00Z GEFS MEMBERS WERE FASTER AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE KICKED OUT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS LED TO MANY DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CMC WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TRENDS AND WERE BOTH VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. ADDITIONALLY...THE ECMWF (AND ITS ENSEMBLE IN PARTICULAR) HAS BEEN SHOWING THE MOST CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS HAVE TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...AND ARE NOW FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE MASS FIELDS. REGARDING THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND FIRST 6-12HR OF DEEPENING...MODELS ALSO STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY WITH THIS OFF THE EAST COAST. WITHIN THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF LOWER STATIC STABILITY...MANY MODELS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS TIED TO BURSTS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. THIS IS REASONABLE OVERALL...HOWEVER SOME MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE NUMBER OF LOW CENTERS OR THEIR INTENSITY. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW AT LEAST FOUR SEPARATE LOW CENTERS. THIS INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY...AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THE LOCATION OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH. TAKING ALL THAT INTO ACCOUNT...THE PREFERENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A NON-UKMET BLEND BUT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES...THE MODELS ARE NOW FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BOTH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE MASS FIELDS AND MANY OF THE IMPACTS. THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS WOULD MORE EFFECTIVELY BE CAPTURED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH A WEIGHT TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS. HOWEVER...THE UKMET IS ENOUGH OF AN OUTLIER TO BE EXCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:26 pm

EPS WOWZA

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:28 pm


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by TheAresian on Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:30 pm

This storm is coming far enough west that it looks like I'll get to join in on the fun. Shame this isn't happening in December or January.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:31 pm

IF EURO/EPS COMBO HAPPENS THEN MOMMA MIA!!

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:32 pm

TheAresian wrote:This storm is coming far enough west that it looks like I'll get to join in on the fun. Shame this isn't happening in December or January.

No wed want this inside the BM or else we get flooded with warm atlantic air and rain ARGH!

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by TheAresian on Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:39 pm

You guys will get flooded with warm air and rain. This is one of those times where I have different wants. If this thing can generate even one snowflake for me, I'm happy as a clam. However, I'd need a temp drop of 15 degrees or thereabouts so I'm not hopeful.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:00 pm

Wow a part 3
EPS barking here peeps


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:15 pm

amugs wrote:Wow a part 3
EPS barking here peeps

A part 3? So are we talking a possibly more intense system than Euro operational?
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:15 pm

amugs wrote:EPS WOWZA
Wow is that 80-90 kt 850mb winds sustained over the area?!!!!
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS WOWZA
Wow is that 80-90 kt 850mb winds sustained over the area?!!!!
Backside of this. 850 level and even if 75% mix down YIKKEESSS!!!
With descending cold air on the backside of this beast this will mix down at least that much from what I have learned. 60-70knots is still ridiculous for our area (68-80 mph gusts!)

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:24 pm

SREFS - 1st time this year!!


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:25 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS WOWZA
Wow is that 80-90 kt 850mb winds sustained over the area?!!!!
Backside of this. 850 level and even if 75% mix down YIKKEESSS!!!
With descending cold air on the backside of this beast this will mix down at least that much from what I have learned. 60-70knots is still ridiculous for our area (68-80 mph gusts!)
Why does it have to be the backside damnit lol I will be in a enclosed office unable to witness it LOL, thats not gusts map thats sustained BTW!
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

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