10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by TheAresian on Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:26 pm

I don't know about your neck of the woods, but there are still a lot of leaves on the trees up this way. High winds like that always make me a little nervous due to the big tree right across the sidewalk in front of my house.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:27 pm

amugs wrote:SREFS - 1st time this year!!

a lot are far offshore
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by rb924119 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:47 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS WOWZA
Wow is that 80-90 kt 850mb winds sustained over the area?!!!!
Backside of this. 850 level and even if 75% mix down YIKKEESSS!!!
With descending cold air on the backside of this beast this will mix down at least that much from what I have learned. 60-70knots is still ridiculous for our area (68-80 mph gusts!)
Why does it have to be the backside damnit lol I will be in a enclosed office unable to witness it LOL, thats not gusts map thats sustained BTW!

Jman, one simple phrase: warm air inversion ahead of the system creates a low-level stability barrier which prevents the winds even less than 1000 feet above the surface from mixing down, but as the cold air advection begins taking over that inversion mixes out and allows the wind to mix down with it. It's all about momentum flux, but thinking about it in relation to temperature is a bit abstract, I admit. If I still had access to my GEMPAK, or even BUFKIT might have it, idk, but a great way to see this is via potential temperature cross-sections. Maybe Ryan (Quietace) has those capabilities since he's in school....? Anyway, that goes beyond what you were looking for, but hopefullly answers your question aha

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:03 pm

THE CAPPY HAS ENACTED


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:04 pm

JMAN LOOK AT THE MEAN ON THE SREFS NOT THE INDYS- THAT WHAT SPEAKS TO YOU!

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:55 pm

amugs wrote:THE CAPPY HAS ENACTED


LMAO
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by TheAresian on Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:35 pm

GFS 18z has come quite a bit west.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:44 pm

TheAresian wrote:GFS 18z has come quite a bit west.
Its still weak not as much rain and nearly no high wind gusts.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:47 pm

And yesterdays 18Z was basically OTS nottin for us - piece of garbage run they should stop running that model at that time interval save us so moola!

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:52 pm

RGEM WOW



CAPE IN TROUBLE


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:34 pm

amugs wrote:RGEM WOW



CAPE IN TROUBLE

What's with that little lp? That's only by 7pm sun long ways go from there. Go b a rough night a lot ppl go wake up with no lights.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:37 pm

Look at this 300mb jet streak my god that is powerfull



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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:05 pm

Mugs or anyone, lets say the wcs happened and its a real bad one, do you think I will be okay driving back from eastern CT Midday Sun? Or should I cancel my plans? I will leave between 11 and 1 latest 2.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by frank 638 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:37 pm

Do you guys we will have see high wind warning or wind advisory go up by tomorrow

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:49 pm

frank 638 wrote:Do you guys we will have see high wind warning or wind advisory go up by tomorrow
my guess is a high wind watch, then either a warning or a advisory on sunday morning.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:50 pm

frank 638 wrote:Do you guys we will have see high wind warning or wind advisory go up by tomorrow
Did you see the highway signs on 87? Says Alert Heavy Rain and strong winds Sat-Sun....ummm Sat? WRONG
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by frank 638 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:05 pm

Thanks jmanley I have not seen the sign yet I have been stuck at work since 7 am I cannot wait to leave LaGuardia

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:25 pm

RGREM has some places with already 1-2 inches of rain by 1pm sun, system hasnt even made it up here by then wowzers.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by frank 638 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:38 pm

We need the rain but not all at once esp with the leafs coming off the trees blocking the drains and sewer system there's going to be a lot of flooding

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:45 pm

the wind is go b a issue even 40mph (which I think may be low for this storm) as we have full leaves still pretty much here in southern westchester and the bronx, some are falling but nothing significant yet.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:00 pm

SREFS!!!!


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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:03 pm

Isotherm on another board harping on 1-4" of rain and 30-45/50 gusts at minimun. Tropical entity gets absorbed and tonics extent will be the deciding factor in wher her we get sand yes questions winds or 2010 nor'easter winds. It could rival the 1992 one and that was bad, REAL BAD!!

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:the wind is go b a issue even 40mph (which I think may be low for this storm) as we have full leaves still pretty much here in southern westchester and the bronx, some are falling but nothing significant yet.

Yup wind I'd going to be a big issue I'm and Monday backside winds could be worse than Sundays. Meaning with CAA the winds will.mix down a lot easier as CAA allows this to transport from these upper levels downward. Add this onto say 3" of rain and our weak and even hardwoods going .....TIMBAAAAAAAA!!

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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by TheAresian on Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:13 pm

0z NAM is running. It will be interesting to saw what it has to say. Currently at hr 35.
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Re: 10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:19 pm

Woah hr 39 the two systems merged already 994mb

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