Movember Obs & Discussions

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Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:19 pm

Here we go



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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by Radz on Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:28 am

33.4° and still dropping, coldest morning low temp this season thus far for me...Welcome to November, too bad we look to stay mostly above normal once again for the near future...
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:39 am

Did anyone see the latest GFS model run for Nov 9th, verbatim its a big snowstorm for interior areas including upper hudson valley but especially in MA and of course beantown, but good thing its 8 days away IF it were to happen plenty of time to change, but, I highly doubt it with the temps we had, its just starting to get cooler out and not snow temps. All 3 models have this system that dives out of canada and forms a LP off the coast, another noreaster, will it be cold enough?
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by aiannone on Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:11 am

Low of 34 on LI (Coldest of the season)

Low of 32 in Binghamton (ties coldest of the season)
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:14 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Did anyone see the latest GFS model run for Nov 9th, verbatim its a big snowstorm for interior areas including upper hudson valley but especially in MA and of course beantown, but good thing its 8 days away IF it were to happen plenty of time to change, but, I highly doubt it with the temps we had, its just starting to get cooler out and not snow temps. All 3 models have this system that dives out of canada and forms a LP off the coast, another noreaster, will it be cold enough?
yes I did jon. models have been all over this system for days even euro has a coastal for a few runs now. still very unlikely for snow on the coastal plain but worth keeping an eye on. with all the talk on most weather boards about another very warm month, I have been a little skeptical about it. my main reason is the epo and wpo with higher heights over Alaska. cold will be close by and as we head deeper into fall and towards winter (dec 1) we should see some of this cold spill into our area esp with the snowpack throughout much of Canada. here is the latest ensembles on the time frame you are talking about. 1st today's 6z gefs and 2nd Friday's 12z gefs.


that's a huge difference. models can have difficult time with pattern with changing wave lengths. some of the cold is going to make it here and any cold that does you can bet a storm will be near with the big temp gradient this time of year. that's some serious cold in canada
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:19 pm


eps agrees 1st 00z wens 2nd 00z sunday.

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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:22 pm

now if we can get some nao help that would be great!

what I like about the nao so far is it's volatility. up and down. if i'm not mistaken we do well when it moves from + to - or vise versa.
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:27 pm

this would be snow for us in another month verbatim or snow to rain. those blue line would be further south given the same pattern. look at where HP is over maine and holding it's ground. those HP are stubborn to move as we head into winter.

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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:32 pm

also what I like is the trough off the south east coast that has just popped up on guidance the last few days. no s/e ridge. the ridge is centered mostly north of us so colder HP and less southwest flow. the flow would be more easterly which should keep temps closer to normal. we are no doubt in a major pattern change. much more active
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:04 pm

Lets hope so, last storm was a snooze for me, lets get these snows cranking, I can be happy without the wind if there is snow : ) Combine both and I am in a dream.
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by dkodgis on Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:39 am

What I notice as a person who knows very little about the weather in a technical sense is that by this time next week, temps take a spill. Low 50s during the day and low 30s at night. I do not have the heat on yet, a surprise, and the wood stove has helped us about four nights. Leaves are about 70% down. From Nov 1 to Dec 1, always big changes. Heat will have to go on and leaves will be gone.
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by TheAresian on Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:55 am

Speaking about the leaves falling, I'm surprised by how much green remains. Maybe I'm remembering last year incorrectly, but I can't recall there being this much green this far along.
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs on Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:13 pm

Pretty cold blast coming in. Transient but still wowza for Friday and Saturday

EURO EPS


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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:20 am

Already mentioned by some but it's going to get very cold for a couple of days the end of this week. Check out these temps valid Saturday morning 7am according to the Canadian:



GFS same time frame:



Friday and Sunday mornings will also be cold with temps expected to be below freezing for many. The main cause for the cold is a backdoor cold front that comes through late Friday.

In the longer range, the cold spell does not last but it's not going to get as mild as some may think. While the EPO ridge is displaced too far west - allowing a trough to remain over the west and ridge spread eastward - it looks like lower heights want to stay along the east coast / southeast.



We're probably going to come out of the transient cold spell this weekend into a normal temp regime.


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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:26 am

Also, more rain likely later today and again tomorrow afternoon (especially Trenton and southward). Then we dry out until early next week.

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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by aiannone on Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:29 pm

Front just passed through here in Binghamton, NY. Temp down to 45 from 60 this morning under a stiff NW Wind

323 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
A quick blast of cold Canadian air will arrive Thursday night and Friday this week with below average temperatures and the first chance of snow this season...especially for central New York.
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:23 pm

Snow chances from the crazy NAM - flakes an dmybe a coating in the ruburbs but this would be nuts!!


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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:51 am

Here comes today's rain. Watch for some flakes mixed with the rain in portions of NEPA and northern NY. Otherwise, looks like a wet afternoon. Temps are still on track to fall below freezing later this week.




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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:53 am

Latest GFS 7am Friday



7pm Friday



7am Saturday





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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:43 pm

Nice area of snow over central and northeast PA. Should be mostly rain around these parts but I always get a bit excited when I see a large area of snow on the radar only 100 or so miles away for the first time.
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by TheAresian on Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:56 pm

The first flakes of the season are falling. Here's hoping that there are many, many days of snowfall this winter.
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs on Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:12 pm

NY son out in University Park Penn State U said heavy snow falling. Going out there this weekend for the gane. I need my parka for chrips sake sob!!
Also from wed through Sunday we look to be about -4 to -6 BN area wide for temps. Then we go about Normal to the big dog advertising on the ENS members

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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by aiannone on Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:49 pm

Cloudy, chilly day here in Binghamton, NY. No snow at all unfortunately.
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by HectorO on Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:52 pm

Rain mixed with some ice coming down here in Ridgewood NJ.
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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

Post by 1190ftalt on Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:59 pm

Rain and Snow in Stillwater no at 1190 altitude!

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Re: Movember Obs & Discussions

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