My Winter Outlook 2017-18

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My Winter Outlook 2017-18

Post by Isotherm on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:14 pm

11th Annual Winter Outlook can be read at the following link. Historical accuracy for long term outlooks has been 81% since the outset in 2006, which can be seen in my website.

Comments and questions appreciated!

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1108
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Re: My Winter Outlook 2017-18

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:51 pm

Thanks for the write up Tom. Nice read. Good luck with the forecast.
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Re: My Winter Outlook 2017-18

Post by frank 638 on Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:17 pm

Thank you Tom for the write up and map you posted Hopefully this winter will be better than last winter and the winter before that one .good luck with the winter forcast

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Re: My Winter Outlook 2017-18

Post by TheAresian on Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:53 pm

Thank you for the write up. I have a question about analog years. Namely, how many factors go into determining analog years and how are they weighted? Also, are there rules for analog years or does each forecaster use their own determining factors?
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Re: My Winter Outlook 2017-18

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:09 pm

Always a pleasure to read your work Tom. Thank you for posting it to the forum for the members to read. Good luck with the forecast. I do agree with you that the cold and possibly even most of our snow this year will come in the first half. Historically second half La Nina's tend to show warmer temperatures. Should be fun!

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Re: My Winter Outlook 2017-18

Post by track17 on Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:12 pm

I know this is probably gonna be a stupid question. But are we ever gonna have a winter that is not La Niña and El Niño. They don't seem to exist anymore. Every winter seems to be one of those two. Why is this and will we ever just get a normal none one again

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Re: My Winter Outlook 2017-18

Post by amugs on Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:50 pm

Thanks for teh write up Tom and best of luck!!

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Re: My Winter Outlook 2017-18

Post by Isotherm on Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:55 pm

Thanks everyone for the comments - appreciated.
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Re: My Winter Outlook 2017-18

Post by Isotherm on Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:57 pm

track17 wrote:I know this is probably gonna be a stupid question. But are we ever gonna have a winter that is not La Niña and El Niño. They don't seem to exist anymore. Every winter seems to be one of those two. Why is this and will we ever just get a normal none one again


We will. Our last neutral ENSO winter was 2013-14. See the following link. Years without red or blue are neutral ENSO - red = Nino, blue = Nina.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
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Re: My Winter Outlook 2017-18

Post by track17 on Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:02 pm

Thank You so much for your help. Hopefully we get that soon so we can get a good winter. Thanks again

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