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My Winter Outlook 2017-18

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Post by Isotherm Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:14 pm

11th Annual Winter Outlook can be read at the following link. Historical accuracy for long term outlooks has been 81% since the outset in 2006, which can be seen in my website.

Comments and questions appreciated!

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1108

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:51 pm

Thanks for the write up Tom. Nice read. Good luck with the forecast.
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Post by frank 638 Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:17 pm

Thank you Tom for the write up and map you posted Hopefully this winter will be better than last winter and the winter before that one .good luck with the winter forcast

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Post by Guest Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:53 pm

Thank you for the write up. I have a question about analog years. Namely, how many factors go into determining analog years and how are they weighted? Also, are there rules for analog years or does each forecaster use their own determining factors?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:09 pm

Always a pleasure to read your work Tom. Thank you for posting it to the forum for the members to read. Good luck with the forecast. I do agree with you that the cold and possibly even most of our snow this year will come in the first half. Historically second half La Nina's tend to show warmer temperatures. Should be fun!

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Post by track17 Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:12 pm

I know this is probably gonna be a stupid question. But are we ever gonna have a winter that is not La Niña and El Niño. They don't seem to exist anymore. Every winter seems to be one of those two. Why is this and will we ever just get a normal none one again

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Post by amugs Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:50 pm

Thanks for teh write up Tom and best of luck!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Isotherm Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:55 pm

Thanks everyone for the comments - appreciated.

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Post by Isotherm Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:57 pm

track17 wrote:I know this is probably gonna be a stupid question. But are we ever gonna have a winter that is not La Niña and El Niño. They don't seem to exist anymore. Every winter seems to be one of those two. Why is this and will we ever just get a normal none one again


We will. Our last neutral ENSO winter was 2013-14. See the following link. Years without red or blue are neutral ENSO - red = Nino, blue = Nina.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

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Post by track17 Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:02 pm

Thank You so much for your help. Hopefully we get that soon so we can get a good winter. Thanks again

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Post by Isotherm Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:47 am

Verification:



http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1108



VERIFICATION



Meteorological Winter Temperature Departures:



Last3mTDeptUS





Meteorological Winter Precipitation Departures:



Last3mPDeptUS





Local Statistics:

Dec-Jan-Feb Temperature Departure Outlook: +0.5 to +1.5; Warmer than normal

Actual DJF Departures:

NYC: +1.1

Newark, NJ: +1.4

LGA, NY: +1.2

Snowfall Forecast: New York City: 27-34”

Actual Snowfall for Winter 2017-18:

NYC: 35.2″

Newark, NJ: 33.9″

LGA, NY: 32.0″

*Note* – snowfall was significantly greater immediately south of NYC, and east of NYC over Long Island with totals of 40-50″+.



Commentary and Grading

This winter could not have gone much better as far as overall temperature departures – values fell directly within the ranges provided from the winter outlook, circa +1 for the DJF period. The way in which we arrived there was quite volatile, and expected to a significant extent. The cold/much colder than normal December verified, as did the very warm second half of the winter. The second half of January 2018 turned very warm, but the cold in the first half of the month led to a colder than normal January departure, an unexpected curve-ball. Nevertheless, the warmth was more than sufficient in the second half to countervail the negatives, and produce a solid positive/warm anomaly.

Nationwide, the idea that the South and the East would be warmer than normal w/ the core of the cold over the Rockies/N Plains verified well. One flaw was that the Southern Plains ended up cooler than forecasted.

Precipitation wise, the general idea of wetter than normal over the inter-mountain West, and the Appalachians/Northeast-Mid-Atlantic with drier conditions across the South verified fairly well.

Select snowfall for other cities:

Red Sox Suck: 57.5″ / Forecast: 50-57”

NYC: 35.2″ / Forecast: 27-34”

LGA: 32″ / Forecast: 27-34”

JFK: 31.8″ / Forecast: 27-34”

Newark, NJ: 33.9″ /Forecast: 27-34”

Islip: 61.3″

Bridgeport: 39.9″

Philadelphia: 29.8″ / Forecast: 17-24”

New Brunswick, NJ: 40.6″ / Forecast: 27-34”

Wash DC: 7.8″ / Forecast: 9-16”

Baltimore: 15″ / Forecast: 12-19”

Dulles: 11.9″

Worcester, MA: 86.6″ (+/- 3″)

Hartford, CT: 48.3″ (+/- 3″)

Providence, RI: 45.9″



Overall, the snowfall forecast verified very well, with the forecast for less snow than normal south of the Mason-Dixon line, and snowier than normal in New England, working out correctly. NYC itself verified well. The one flaw/unexpected area was from portions of central NJ through Long Island, which had quite a bit more snowfall than I expected (40-50″+). Favorable storm tracks benefited these areas. Snowfall is always the most difficult part of a long range forecast due to the non-linear/stochastic nature of snow storms.



Final Grade – this, overall, will go into the “hit” column, bringing my long term accuracy rate since 2006-07 up to 82%.

Precipitation: A-

Temperatures: A

Snowfall: A-

Winter 2017-18 Final Grade: A-


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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:50 pm

Tom,

You are a gifted man. Thank you for sharing your forecast on this forum. I thoroughly enjoy reading your work. I look forward to next year's winter forecast. Excellent job!

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Post by Isotherm Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Tom,

You are a gifted man. Thank you for sharing your forecast on this forum. I thoroughly enjoy reading your work. I look forward to next year's winter forecast. Excellent job!

Frank,

Those words mean a lot - thank you very much. Likewise, you're an excellent LR forecaster, and I look forward to further conversations with you in the future, as well as the coming summer season and next winter!

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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:47 pm

Tom, I was just reading this over with my dad, with whom I've spoken to him about you before, and in our conversation I stated the following regarding your snowfall forecasts:

"From a lead of over a month, and for March, FOUR MONTHS, he pretty much nailed snowfall forecasts better than than our mainstream yahoos do for any given single storm. That's incredible."

While I don't think any further elaboration need be provided for the point to ring home, I will join Frank in further complimenting you on your absolutely phenomenal gift and skill at forecasting the long range, and now that I know where you reside, I am looking very forward to continuing to learn from you and the several others you converse with, as well as broadening the ways in which I approach various meteorological questions. You, and they, as well as our members here, possess an amazing wealth of knowledge that is just absolutely incredible to draw from and be a part of in discussions. I'm so honored to be one of the relatively few who "know" you, and have the ability to converse with you on whatever topic(s) is/are at hand. Too cool!!!!!

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Post by Isotherm Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:23 pm

rb924119 wrote:Tom, I was just reading this over with my dad, with whom I've spoken to him about you before, and in our conversation I stated the following regarding your snowfall forecasts:

"From a lead of over a month, and for March, FOUR MONTHS, he pretty much nailed snowfall forecasts better than than our mainstream yahoos do for any given single storm. That's incredible."

While I don't think any further elaboration need be provided for the point to ring home, I will join Frank in further complimenting you on your absolutely phenomenal gift and skill at forecasting the long range, and now that I know where you reside, I am looking very forward to continuing to learn from you and the several others you converse with, as well as broadening the ways in which I approach various meteorological questions. You, and they, as well as our members here, possess an amazing wealth of knowledge that is just absolutely incredible to draw from and be a part of in discussions. I'm so honored to be one of the relatively few who "know" you, and have the ability to converse with you on whatever topic(s) is/are at hand. Too cool!!!!!

Ray,

Thank you for that awesome compliment. It means a lot. Looking forward to many more intellectually stimulating discussions with you and others!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:42 am

Tom it’s hard to see giving you any less than an A for your winter outlook this year. Yes a few micro areas were off some in snowfall but with these mesoscale events especially like we received in March across much of the NYC Metro that’s impossible to predict months out, even a day out, so forget those.

A big thank you for listing DULLES airport as a separate entity and not part of WDC as some outlets, most notably TWC, did for years. Being 32 miles NW of WDC and 300 feet higher and in another state would be the equivalent of using Montville NJ to report NYC totals.

Excellent, excellent work. I’m already looking forward to next winters outlook.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:58 am

Tom I echo the sentiments of the others above. Year in and year out you do a phenomenal job and I too 100% appreciate the ability to use you as a reference and really appreciate the time you take to post in this forum, as well as the other forms for which you reside.

Once again congrats on an extremely great job on this year’s winter forecast.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Guest Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:54 am

FROM THE SNOW CAPITAL OF NJSTRONGWEATHERFORUM. WELL DONE INDEED!! Laughing

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Post by Isotherm Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:03 pm

Thank you CP, Scott, and Syo for those kind words. Much appreciated. Each year brings with it more curve-balls and challenges to hopefully improve the methods. Looking forward to more great discussions with all of you.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:10 am

Tom,if I had a trading system with various investment vehicles with the accuracy of your Long Range Forecast, I would have the Holy Grail.Great job and looking forward to the Fall already for your next one.
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