December Obs and Discussion

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December Obs and Discussion

Post by Quietace on Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:40 am

Things I like about December.
1) The holidays.
2) The sun is very low.
3) It is getting cold.
4) It is Met. Winter.
5) The semester is almost over.

Discuss onward!

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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:25 am

November finished below normal for the area. December will also likely finish below normal (or normal).

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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by mikeypizano on Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:54 am

I like it because besides a few last minute jobs, I am done for the season until it snows!
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:15 am

55° at 1:15am in December , it feels so warm out.... May anyone?

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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:51 am

Dunnzoo wrote:55° at 1:15am in December , it feels so warm out.... May anyone?
I know it was actually colder during the mid afternoon thatblast night. Wait till next week when the PV is over the GL. Ain't gonna feel like May.



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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:44 pm

Push this 50 miles more SE please or 100 !!


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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:27 am

currently 34* we had a dusting over night..Smile
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:01 pm

Interesting week ahead. Loads of potential

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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:53 pm

Major changes both aloft and at the surface on the GFS over the last couple days. There is less interaction between the Pacific energy and the PNA ridge, allowing the trough to amplify. The TPV has trended weaker as well, perhaps allowing heights to rise along the East Coast. Still a lot of time to go with this one for Friday

Pac energy and wave breaks is where the focus is - EPO and PNA regions.



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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:57 pm

This will send us into the freezer if it were to verify which it looks like it will! Talkin -7 SD this is before xmas and the week after!


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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:17 pm

Weak wave to watch for Thursday. Southern areas are best bet right now for some snow.



Maybe another coastal storm to watch for Friday?




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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Isotherm on Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:18 pm

So far so good with the NAO behaving congruously with my NAO indicators with a general positive tendency; the Pacific side continues to do most of the heavy lifting with some Arctic support. A precondition (most of the time) for good snowpack winters in the coastal Northeast is a more sustained -NAO which precludes the ephemeral poleward bursts of the SE-ridge.

 
Going forward, we have multifarious forcing mechanisms acting adjunctively to induce a recommencement of robust high latitude blocking. My thoughts are essentially unchanged in that I still anticipate the 15th-30th period to produce a SECS or MECS event. I would probably narrow that period down to the 20th-26th. MJO associated upper divergence signal will be traversing the Pacific over the next week w/ resultant RW poleward propagation. Concurrently, another potent w1 hit on the SPV will engender further perturbation and displacement off the pole, as we increase baroclinicity in the vortex. Downwelling of the anomalies coupled with more conducive shift in tropical forcing will produce another very poleward EPO spike with overlap into the PNA/AO domains. I do expect higher geopotential heights to expand into portions of the NAO domain as well post the 19th, with a more negative NAO than currently modeled. The period henceforth should be interesting as far as wintry prospects (both cold, and snow opportunities). The period of favorability should persist for at least 2 weeks.
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:45 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Weak wave to watch for Thursday. Southern areas are best bet right now for some snow.



Maybe another coastal storm to watch for Friday?



oh boy... I am having a Christmas luncheon on Friday love snow..but could throw a money wrench in to my plans.....
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:59 pm

I posted bout this in banter as I thought was too far out. After that frame it bombs out 15 mb to 980 mb on 12z. Could this come nw bomb out sooner and give us a big storm?
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:04 pm

This is nam. Gfs came in stronger with the vort as well.This may produce a 1-3 inch event. High ratio snow
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:37 pm

Rayno said there is a shot at a "decent" snowfall for the area Friday into Sat IF as usual the southern piece of energy can get out ahead of the northern piece, will it happen? That is past me at 4 days out, what do the pros think here? Sounds like it won't effect my plans though if it is ending Sat which is good news.
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:49 pm

by aiannone Today at 3:47 pm

18z NAM looks nice for the clipper over LI

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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:11 pm

No e snow shower here now and windy he r comes the Arctic cold

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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Dtone on Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:42 pm

Some drizzle turned into a windswept moderate mix of snow sleet and rain. Must be the front. 40*

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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by HectorO on Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:45 pm

Plenty of moisture in the area especially Sunday and Monday, but the lack of colder air will be a problem. Temps in the 40s will be a repeat of this weekend, where we see snow on Saturday and melting on Sunday and Monday with mostly rain and a few flakes like this evening.
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:07 am

21* with a real feel of 5*.I am working outdoors today I have 3 heavy shirts on and heavy paints on and I am still cold

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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:11 am

Some snow Thursday night from a flipper maybe. A inch or two. Also some model support some snow over wwekend
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Radz on Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:16 am

19°, 29.20 R, wind 9mph gusts to 16
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:17 am

20* wind chill 4* winds currently 12 mph
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Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:33 am

22* out on the Island. Felt amazing this morning out at the bus stop.

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Re: December Obs and Discussion

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