December Obs and Discussion

Page 5 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by billg315 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:11 am

If you look at sroc’s post* from a couple days ago which I “ditto’d“ this shift is not surprising. There has been a trend back n&w in the final 48 hours with a lot of coastal systems this year. And as I pointed out, it is not uncommon to have a storm modeled 10 days out,lose it at 6 days out, and find it again at 3. And here we are. If I can get 2-4” from this I’ll give Long Island their 4”-plus and still be happy. *(Sroc’s post was in Banter Xmas evening).
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2185
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:03 am

12z GFS did not have much. 12z Canadian hits LI pretty nicely.


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18183
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:10 am

RGEM is 2-4 inches for LI and 1-3 everyone else

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18183
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:17 am

Frank - a new thread for this??

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9514
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:18 am

amugs wrote:Frank - a new thread for this??

I said earlier let's just keep it in this thread. I rather start a new thread for the January 4th storm but we'll wait another 2 days before doing so.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18183
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Sparky Sparticles on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:35 am

Is this Friday night into Saturday, or during the day Saturday?
avatar
Sparky Sparticles

Posts : 95
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-02-11
Age : 64
Location : Bayonne, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:40 am

Sparky Sparticles wrote:Is this Friday night into Saturday, or during the day Saturday?

During the day Saturday

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18183
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by aiannone on Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:29 pm

18z NAM is wetter again for LI. About .25” of liquid with ratios could be a solid 3-5”
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3532
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:59 pm

Hi res man looks good as well for coast. I'm going with 2-4 isolated 5 amounts.
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4042
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by 1190ftalt on Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:14 pm




Well went for a hike on the Appalachian Trail today, about 2 to 3 inches in spots , checked one of my cameras , this one is at 1486 ft elevation , I thought it was nice that it started snowing a little before midnight on Christmas Eve and then the beautiful snow on Christmas morning ! I will be posting pictures after big storms, did these because CHRISTMAS ! Good Luck ! Cold up there today !

1190ftalt

Posts : 133
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Ft Lee, Stillwater, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:33 pm

12* here now

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9514
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:17 pm

I know it’s 18z but NAM conts to trend wetter for Sat. GFS wetter as well.



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:30 pm

15*with a windchill of _5 * i wonder if anyone will see below zeros for low temp for tom morning

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1690
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 34
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Radz on Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:31 pm

Down to 11° here, real feel 2°, coldest night thus far up coming...
avatar
Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 747
Reputation : 11
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by dad4twoboys on Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:50 pm

2*F going down to -2*F tonight

Amenia NY
avatar
dad4twoboys
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 199
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Brewster, New York

View user profile http://massageguy99.teamasea.com

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:56 pm

frank 638 wrote:15*with a windchill of _5 * i wonder if anyone will see below zeros for low temp for tom morning
Was up at my parents in Ulster County hunting last two days. Yesterday high of 15. Last night got down to -3. Today high of 12. Tonight forecast to be-6. Righ now here in Syosset 12
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3572
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:59 pm

Currently 10 with the feel of -1
avatar
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1911
Reputation : 26
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by lglickman1 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:57 pm

Anything new for Saturdays minor event?

lglickman1

Posts : 193
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Riverdale, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:46 am

lglickman1 wrote:Anything new for Saturdays minor event?

RGEm


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:34 am

Down to 11* at least it's not to windy but crazy cold brrrrr

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1690
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 34
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:07 am

Models trended dry again for Saturday's event. Probably still a good shot of 1-3 inches of LI. A coating to 2 inches everywhere else.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18183
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:18 am

Got down to 2.3 last night.

This is an impressive cold shot for duration but not for extreme. No lows yet below 0 is pretty surprising especially considering there are days we've barely broken 10 degrees for the highs (12.2 yesterday for the high). I would think we finally break 0 here New Years morning but we shall see.

BTW the 2.6 inches of snow we received Christmas early morning isn't going anywhere.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5801
Reputation : 133
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 56
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:08 am

Woke up to SCI lowered. Scroll mentioning EURO for next week gone, and NWS forecast lowering amounts for tomorrow. (Yes 2-4” would have been nice). This is getting real frustrating real quick. Who wants to bet we get 2 big rainstorms after this cold shot ends?
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3572
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 on Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:24 am

syosnow94 wrote:Woke up to SCI lowered.  Scroll mentioning EURO for next week gone, and NWS forecast lowering amounts for tomorrow. (Yes 2-4” would have been nice). This is getting real frustrating real quick.  Who wants to bet we get 2 big rainstorms after this cold shot ends?

Yep.Watch a big cutter and temps up in the 50's with 2-3 inches of rain.I've seen that a lot after a cold spell.
avatar
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6120
Reputation : 95
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 67
Location : Monroe NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Quietace on Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:40 am

syosnow94 wrote:Woke up to SCI lowered.  Scroll mentioning EURO for next week gone, and NWS forecast lowering amounts for tomorrow. (Yes 2-4” would have been nice). This is getting real frustrating real quick.  Who wants to bet we get 2 big rainstorms after this cold shot ends?
Come up to NH when I go back to school. We have 3' on the ground......and counting. We will probably end up somewhere near 100" when all is said and done this winter.

_________________
Ryan
B.S. Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Graduate Meteorology Student at Florida State University
avatar
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3524
Reputation : 29
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 21
Location : Tallahassee, FL

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum