December Obs and Discussion

Page 2 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:41 am

Went down to 16.5, up to 20.1 now. Windy too! But a small coating of snow!!
avatar
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 826
Reputation : 43
Join date : 2017-01-05
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by aiannone on Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:49 am

12z NAM looks nice for the clipper. A bit more precip
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3536
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:49 am

aiannone wrote:12z NAM looks nice for the clipper. A bit more precip

Hope so, I need some nice snow...
avatar
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 826
Reputation : 43
Join date : 2017-01-05
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:59 am

Absolutely freezing outside. Wind chills in the teens. I started a thread for tomorrow's clipper.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18267
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:22 am

17* for me low and mod burst of snow and light snow now!!
2 Days in a row and tomorrow will make 3 and it sonly 12-13!!!!!!!!!!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9609
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:54 pm

Right now the CMC  and rgem are most aggressive with the Sat Clipper.  Similar event as the one we saw today verbatim.  Like today's event if we gain more support with other models we will give it its own thread.  For now keep discussion about it here instead of the LR since its only a day or so off.  


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5832
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:48 pm

Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here. One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event. Something to remember going forward when viewing models. Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3619
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:48 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
Lets hop it i'snt 17 storms of 2-5 inches each (even though that would add up to a lot these small storms arent exactly exciting like a big one, I want at least a godzilla if not more in there!!
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15140
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.

Yup and Models (not the ones in the magazines!) are fn struggling to no end with all this perturbation in teh atmosphere from teh Indian Ocean to the Arctic to the North Atlantic - it is amazing how they can make a quadrillion calculations but miss it until we are almost on top of it.

BTW SREFSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9609
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.

Yup and Models (not the ones in the magazines!) are fn struggling to no end with all this perturbation in teh atmosphere from teh Indian Ocean to the Arctic to the North Atlantic - it is amazing how they can make a quadrillion calculations but miss it until we are almost on top of it.

BTW SREFSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!


Wow mugs big shift another tick and everyone in the biz. But I like it already for my area
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4077
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:09 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.

Yup and Models (not the ones in the magazines!) are fn struggling to no end with all this perturbation in teh atmosphere from teh Indian Ocean to the Arctic to the North Atlantic - it is amazing how they can make a quadrillion calculations but miss it until we are almost on top of it.

BTW SREFSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!


Wow mugs big shift another tick and everyone in the biz. But I like it already for my area
Will this be another 15-20:1 ratio snowfall? So like 0.1 qpf is closer to 2 inches of snow than 1.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15140
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
Lets hop it i'snt 17 storms of 2-5 inches each (even though that would add up to a lot these small storms arent exactly exciting like a big one, I want at least a godzilla if not more in there!!

I personally would love a 3-4” storm every 4 to 5 days. My definition of a perfect winter
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3619
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:47 pm

you can add the 18z suite mugs to the list. big jumps on all new guidance. syo I agree. active and cold enough works for me. no one and done winter. 2.2" today.7.2" so far. had a nice heavy burst of snow around 7am this morning. looks great outside.
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4703
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:48 pm

I like this

avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4077
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:17 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Not that this is scientific but I see A PATTERN developing here.  One where the energy and resultant storm threats reappear inside of 48 hours and trend nw from that point until the event.  Something to remember going forward when viewing models.  Just my two cents but in 1995/96 we saw storm after storm (17 if I am correct) follow the same path all winter long.
Lets hop it i'snt 17 storms of 2-5 inches each (even though that would add up to a lot these small storms arent exactly exciting like a big one, I want at least a godzilla if not more in there!!

I personally would love a 3-4” storm every 4 to 5 days. My definition of a perfect winter

17 storms at 2-5" per???? Thats an avg of 3.5" per storm x's 17 storms would give me 59.5" for the season. Lets say I end the season on March 17th. Anything beyond that is gravy. That would be 10 weeks from Dec 9th, the day of the first snowfall for me this season. That means I would see on avg 3.5" of snow every 3-4 days a week for 10 straight weeks.

SIGN ME UP!! party

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5832
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:19 pm

slow and steady! better than 1 big storm that's for sure
avatar
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1911
Reputation : 26
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:49 pm

RJB8525 wrote:slow and steady! better than 1 big storm that's for sure
Meh I beg to differ. I know it would take the ultimate perfect setup, but I want to see an area wide 3 to 4 foot blizzard. Go big or go home is my motto.
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1465
Reputation : 31
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 52
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:23 pm

Srefs!!!!
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4077
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by track17 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:42 pm

When would this be skins and how much?

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:46 pm

I think Tommorow late afternoon looks like a 2-3 inch event
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4077
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by track17 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:49 pm

Cool sounds good thanks for your hard work

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:52 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I think Tommorow late afternoon looks like a 2-3 inch event

Double that, at least, skins. Ratios will be very high with this system, and you're looking at a general .25-.5" L.E. event; it should end up as a carbon copy of the first event in terms of totals, though not as are reaching to the northwest, IMO. Once you get about 30-50 miles NW of 95 they'll drop quickly, again, IMO.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4584
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:07 pm

rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I think Tommorow late afternoon looks like a 2-3 inch event

Double that, at least, skins. Ratios  will be very high with this system, and you're looking at a general .25-.5" L.E. event; it should end up as a carbon copy of the first event in terms of totals, though not as are reaching to the northwest, IMO. Once you get about 30-50 miles NW of 95 they'll drop quickly, again, IMO.

Yeah I was being conservative I got 3 inches from first storm so this may surpass that.
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4077
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:18 pm

0z Nam is west. Looks a lot like 18z RGEM. Great start to the 0z suite tonight!
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1465
Reputation : 31
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 52
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:22 pm

Peeps started a thread on this lets move all this chatter to there please - it is coming for a tri-fecta in a 1 week span!!


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9609
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: December Obs and Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum