Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by Snow88 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:56 am

A lot of snow for Georgia and the Mid Atlantic

A few inches up here

Nice
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:05 am

algae888 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:Accumulating snow down gets to the coast

Great run
Agreed however it's focusing on the last wave which the other models have not picked up on still got to take into consideration that it is the 84 hour nam


Al I dont think its focusing on a diufferent wave; rather its handling the S energy diff than the two globals. Its holding back energy in the base of the trough vs the stringing it all out. The focusing of the energy is key in that the stronger the energy in the base of the trough the higher the heights out in front.



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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by algae888 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:14 am

Ok scott that makes sense I'm just noticing that it's much slower than the globals thought it was a different wave as there look to be several interacting with the front
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by algae888 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:16 am

another thing to keep in mind is that we're going to need to see pretty good snow rates if it's during the day time as temperatures will be marginal. Otherwise it's white rain let's hope we get the snow first and then it comes at night
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:23 am

algae888 wrote: another thing to keep in mind is that we're going to need to see pretty good snow rates if it's during the day time as temperatures will be marginal. Otherwise it's white rain let's hope we get the snow first and then it comes at night

Great point.   I would really like to see the GFS and or euro jump aboard.  To some degree the CMC shifted that way at 00z overnight.  But a single run does not a trend make.  

00Z CMC




12z CMC yesterday:



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:28 am

From a super weenie

NAM closes off the VORT and allows it to dig while as Scott said the other models have it strung out. If it were about 6 hours faster it could have more upside to being a significant storm for the NY metro area for December BUT I am not saying that and just being cautiously optimistic here. Another set of runs today and through 6Z tomorrow before the energy gets sampled in the North Country! Interesting set up to say the least,




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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:37 am

JB-
"Further north the storm is Saturday into Saturday night and so the NAM is covering the entire storm, but I would watch for a shift west a bit. Ensembles will naturally try to run away in the means from the westward shift, but early in the season with a tight boundary and a warm ocean argues for the shift west"

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by jake732 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:42 am

gfs comng in same as 6z so far
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:43 am

jake732 wrote:gfs comng in same as 6z so far

Isn't the GFS technically out of range at this point and we should focus on the short range models now?
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by aiannone on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:46 am

12z GFS noticeably west of 0z but still not like the nam
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:48 am

does the sun angle have any part in a storm during this time of year?
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by track17 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:58 am

Anyone have any of the snow maps for the nam or gfs

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:19 am

Cmc is a great hot
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:28 am

Peeps,

Problem with this system and the GFS bias is it is not handling the Southern Jet well and really doesn't do well with such storms IMO. The JET Structure is just west of NWNJ which woudl promote snow shield to move further west. I could be wrong but not seeing the phase - it keeps everything strung out - CMC, JMA, UKIE and NAM along with RGEM all have a consolidated storm at this point oh and lets not forget the NAVY (NAVGEM!!) Ned the EURO to show some sort of phase at 12Z to give credence and support to this. Also GEFS are west of OP as Al pointed out so that is red flag to the OP.

GGEM/CMC OOHHH CANADA!!






Last edited by amugs on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:33 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:29 am

The placement of the 250mb jet streak will be key in how far N & W the precip shield can expand.

CMC vs GFS



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:35 am

^^^^Scott thanks for posting the JET Structure that I pointed out

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by jake732 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:39 am

Is weed legal in Canada??? CMC is sure on it!
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:42 am

amugs wrote:^^^^Scott thanks for posting the JET Structure that I pointed out

You bet. Here it is again: For some reason weather bell has different color schemes for CMC and GFS so here is the Trop tidbits. Its much more clear as to how much further N it is on the CMC



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 5.25""
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:49 am

RJB8525 wrote:does the sun angle have any part in a storm during this time of year?

Sun angle is no longer an issue.  Lowest sun angle occurs on the winter solstice which is only 15 days away. Sun angle now is equivalent to sun angle on Jan 5th.

A bigger issue may be boundary layer that has been warm and may be slight above freezing due to win direction coming off the warmer waters at least initally.  Weak LP preceeds the precip shield where out in front of the waves of LP may be SE and E for a time.  These details will be ironed out once we get in closer.  How heavy the precip actually falls, dew points, strength of system, position etc all will play a role.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 5.25""
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:05 pm

Wow NAVGEM is Godzilla

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 5.25""
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by algae888 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:06 pm

I do not have the precipitation panels yet but the ukie looks fantastic 1001 MilliBar low right on the North Carolina South Carolina coastal border ends up right off the coast of Maine 983 millibar. Looks fantastic but hard to tell without in between panels
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by jake732 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:08 pm

Just throwing out there for some reason weekend storms work out. Do some research about it bec I’ve noticed for years already.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by algae888 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:11 pm

Precipitation map only goes out to hour 72 it looks just like the CMC maybe a tad stronger about .1 to .25 liquid equivalent with the heaviest stuff yet to come over .5 in Southern and central New Jersey that's for the UK met
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by SENJsnowman on Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:20 pm

This whole set up reminds me a lot of last January 7, when the coast got a nice little storm. Seems to be the same type of 2 wave, will they or won't they, type of deal.

Pretty sure last time the short range models were quicker to pick up on it than the long range were. So, that makes me hopeful at the moment. Still a ways to go, but it's a fun track right now for the Coasties.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:44 pm

UKIEEEEEEEEEEE!!!

Precip Maps - this is a very nice look - lets see what the EURO does here


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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

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