Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:41 pm

zip ziltch nam. figured.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:58 am

FWIW UKMET shifted significantly west from 12z, the EURO Op shifted west some, but not enough. However, the 06z NAM suite (regular, 12km, and hi-res) all shifted significantly further west and toward the UKMET compared to 00z and are a mid-ground between the UKMET and EURO. The 06z NAM suite is about six to eight hours too late from a SECS for the I-95. It actually takes the phasing troughs negative in time to expand the precipitation shield as far west as the Hudson, but just as the system is pulling away. Southeastern New England gets nice thump, though. While I'm not putting much stock in this off-hour run, it may be a ray of hope to look at for the time being, seeing as though it at least has support for this from one global model lol

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:50 am

rb you can add in the 6z gfs... it came west nice hit for coastal area's. looks like s/w diving from the lakes is stronger this run and pulls slp and precip back some. if this feature is stronger and dives even a little further south than it should pull precip back towards it. we shall see how 12z does today with better sampling
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:54 am

for comparison. just 1-2 mb stronger will make a diff. with how far west precip gets

00z

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:02 am

This could be a trend to watch today. That a big shift of 75-100 miles northwest. We have seen time and time again 48 hours out plenty time to come back. Today's runs very important
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:15 am

Was just gonna post that Al!!! And yup, stronger, faster energy leads to more interaction and a much more quickly tilting trough axis, which is why the precipitation field has expanded so considerably west.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:32 am

Gefs 6z are west .25 to .5 lqe west to east from the hudson east thruogh eli and south to jersey shore. hopefully this starts a trend and no better time since we're inside of 60 hours
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:56 am

06z runs came west to give NYC and points east a glancing blow of snow showers. At this point, I would expect Saturday to be overcast with occasional snow showers. Not expecting much accumulation. Maybe <1" on grassy surfaces.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:11 am

Key model runs coming up I would not put this to rest yet
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:15 am

Unfortunately Id have to agree Frank. The consensus is becoming quite clear that the southern energy will simply be too strung out and the flow off the coast is simply too progressive to allow for a strong enough LP to develop or enough time for the precip shield to expand far enough N & W to make a significant difference. As some one who is one of the furthest east for this forum I am expecting mood flakes to a coating. Anything beyond that will end up being a bonus. I guess I will say there is still a small window for adjustments since the N energy has only this morning come onshore way up in NW Canada and Alaska. That window is rapidly closing, however. We have to see if the 12z and 00z tonight cont the west shift that the 06z showed or if it was a mere windshield wiper run. With this system keep your ceiling of expectation low so that the worst that can happen is your only mildly disappointed or pleasantly surprised.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:42 am

I will give it until the ooz runs with new data
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:26 am

12z NAM is NW

Hr 51



Last edited by Sanchize06 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:31 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:27 am

NAM:  Ok workable

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 5.25""
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:30 am

Hr 57


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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:32 am

I think with new data the trend will continue to correct mw
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:35 am

Everyone has to remember these Vortex were in no man's land not getting sampled
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:40 am

Yes I noticed two things the southern stream vordt was further north west and more organized in the gulf and the northern stream system dug a little further south which should help Tug it back to the northwest. Great Trend so far let's see if the big boys are ready to play in another hour or so
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by aiannone on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:40 am

12z NAM comes west!
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:43 am

It actually looks like there's a phase as she drops 8 millibars in 6 hours Scott can you confirm that as I'm on my cell
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:48 am

algae888 wrote:It actually looks like there's a phase as she drops 8 millibars in 6 hours Scott can you confirm that as I'm on my cell

Yes a partial phase as it passes just SE of the BM. 6-12 hrs earlier verbatim on this run would have been ideal





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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:49 am

Hi res man looks great a lot of laten heat release. I mentioned that yesterday
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:50 am

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:It actually looks like there's a phase as she drops 8 millibars in 6 hours Scott can you confirm that as I'm on my cell

Yes a partial phase as it passes just SE of the BM.  6-12 hrs earlier verbatim on this run would have been ideal







_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 5.25""
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:51 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Hi res man looks great a lot of laten heat release. I mentioned that yesterday

Skins Im not sure what you mean by latent heat release?

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 5.25""
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:01 am

sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Hi res man looks great a lot of laten heat release. I mentioned that yesterday

Skins Im not sure what you mean by latent heat release?  

Memory serves me correctly you can see it on the high-resolution nam model it has to do with the convection down to the South releasing Heat which pushes storms more North I remember reading this at one point somewhere on here
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:08 am

12z GFS continues the creep west.......
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

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