Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by aiannone on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:03 pm

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:05 pm



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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:05 pm

Lee's "first call"...

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:07 pm

Frank better have a serious and I mean SERIOUS girlfriend. His lack of excitement and contribution is unacceptable. And where is Math the new heatmiser? Very Happy
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:12 pm

jake732 wrote:remeber west = warm which = mixing issues

Not worries about that with latest runs Jake. Heaviest precip comes after sundown sun angle in our favor giddy up
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:25 pm

Yes only 10% chance pretty sure it's gotta be higher than that. Could still be at work too. Maybe can't do that from phone I dunno.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:25 pm

One thing I will say is these systems almost always seem to be quicker to move out than anticipated, and so snow totals on models often need to be shaved off the top a little. And I wouldn't entirely rule out boundary layer issue in certain locals just yet either.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:27 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Frank better have a serious and I mean SERIOUS girlfriend.  His lack of excitement and contribution is unacceptable.  And where is Math the new heatmiser? Very Happy

HOLY SIKES JIMMY CALL IN OUT THE BOYS IN A BIG WAY LOL!!!
@ALEX HELLO?? What did I say kid.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by frank 638 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:28 pm

I wonder if we will see winter weather advisory got up by tomorrow night

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:29 pm

amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Frank better have a serious and I mean SERIOUS girlfriend.  His lack of excitement and contribution is unacceptable.  And where is Math the new heatmiser? Very Happy

HOLY SIKES JIMMY CALL IN OUT THE BOYS IN A BIG WAY LOL!!!
@ALEX HELLO?? What did I say kid.

You bet I am Amugs. The first snow of the year has a weird effect on me. I am some kind of fired up individual right now!!!
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by aiannone on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:30 pm

amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Frank better have a serious and I mean SERIOUS girlfriend.  His lack of excitement and contribution is unacceptable.  And where is Math the new heatmiser? Very Happy

HOLY SIKES JIMMY CALL IN OUT THE BOYS IN A BIG WAY LOL!!!
@ALEX HELLO?? What did I say kid.

You nailed it lol!
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:35 pm

meh, congrats coast lol

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-082100-
Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
349 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey, east
central Pennsylvania and northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Snow showers or snow squalls may coat some roads with up to an inch
of snow Sunday morning in parts of the Lehigh Valley, Pocono Mountains,
and into far northwest New Jersey with the higher terrain more susceptible
for an accumulation.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:36 pm

There has obviously been a west trend as of late which means that two days out, we are in some decent snow totals. The question is: will the west trend continue to the point where the low is so far west it results in rain for the region and snow north and west.

Interestingly enough, from what I heard, it was two days prior to the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard on the 12Z NAM that the models began trending west with the big storm. Recall that by the night of the 24th the jackpot zones were over eastern LI. The western trend continued to the point where the snow totals in eastern LI went down as dry slotting became an issue. The jackpot totals ended up being over NE NJ with 30" snows in some spots.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:40 pm

Math23x7 wrote:There has obviously been a west trend as of late which means that two days out, we are in some decent snow totals.  The question is: will the west trend continue to the point where the low is so far west it results in rain for the region and snow north and west.  

Interestingly enough, from what I heard, it was two days prior to the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard on the 12Z NAM that the models began trending west with the big storm.  Recall that by the night of the 24th the jackpot zones were over eastern LI.  The western trend continued to the point where the snow totals in eastern LI went down as dry slotting became an issue.  The jackpot totals ended up being over NE NJ with 30" snows in some spots.

Well I remember that storm like it was yesterday I'm on the coast in ocean county and we got burried with 30 inches!
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:44 pm

Math23x7 wrote:There has obviously been a west trend as of late which means that two days out, we are in some decent snow totals.  The question is: will the west trend continue to the point where the low is so far west it results in rain for the region and snow north and west.  

Interestingly enough, from what I heard, it was two days prior to the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard on the 12Z NAM that the models began trending west with the big storm.  Recall that by the night of the 24th the jackpot zones were over eastern LI.  The western trend continued to the point where the snow totals in eastern LI went down as dry slotting became an issue.  The jackpot totals ended up being over NE NJ with 30" snows in some spots.

My man how’ve you been. What happened to you? Mr negativity these days. Love ya though.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:01 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:There has obviously been a west trend as of late which means that two days out, we are in some decent snow totals.  The question is: will the west trend continue to the point where the low is so far west it results in rain for the region and snow north and west.  

Interestingly enough, from what I heard, it was two days prior to the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard on the 12Z NAM that the models began trending west with the big storm.  Recall that by the night of the 24th the jackpot zones were over eastern LI.  The western trend continued to the point where the snow totals in eastern LI went down as dry slotting became an issue.  The jackpot totals ended up being over NE NJ with 30" snows in some spots.

My man how’ve you been.  What happened to you?  Mr negativity these days. Love ya though.

James, check the banter thread.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:36 pm

So it's funny, the only time I have these days is when I'm at work! Am I reading these soundings correctly, seems a little warm midlevels at the onset, temps not really dropping until later due to the column cooling, maybe not as much snow as we think....






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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:42 pm

Dr no drinkig the cool aid with Math LOL!!
For the coastal plain zoo it maybe an issue.Inland not as much IMO.
We can look tomorrow to see we our BL are at.

WHIT GOLD FTFW!!!!!!!! Laughing

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:45 pm

GEFS!!


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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:58 pm


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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:00 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:So it's funny, the only time I have these days is when I'm at work! Am I reading these soundings correctly, seems a little warm midlevels at the onset, temps not really dropping until later due to the column cooling, maybe not as much snow as we think....






No, those soundings are fine. The 0°C line is the thicker, black, dashed line that extends up and to the right from the temperature label. That column is definitely sufficiently cold for snow. Skew-t'sare tough; too many lines ahaha

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:03 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS!!


Do you have a view with LI?

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:04 pm

RGEM shifted west lol

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by mmanisca on Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:09 pm

Math23x7 wrote:There has obviously been a west trend as of late which means that two days out, we are in some decent snow totals.  The question is: will the west trend continue to the point where the low is so far west it results in rain for the region and snow north and west.  

Interestingly enough, from what I heard, it was two days prior to the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard on the 12Z NAM that the models began trending west with the big storm.  Recall that by the night of the 24th the jackpot zones were over eastern LI.  The western trend continued to the point where the snow totals in eastern LI went down as dry slotting became an issue.  The jackpot totals ended up being over NE NJ with 30" snows in some spots.

Still think Long Island struggles with accumulations till late Saturday. Probably wet on the roads.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:GEFS!!


Do you have a view with LI?

NO FU guys in the snow capitol of the NE - I hope it changes to rain!!!! alien

LOOK - not a close up but.................. how about almost .75"




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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th

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