December 9th Storm - Snow Map

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December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:31 am

Good Morning,

We have been mentioning December 6th pattern change for some time now, and even called out December 9th as a date that may feature our first snowstorm. Alas, here we are and our first winter storm of the season is upon us.



What was originally looking like a glancing blow with little snow totals has changed drastically in the last 24 hours to a significant storm event for many. My original thinking was this would be a minor event because of the transient blocking in the NAO region and lack of HP or 50/50 Low to our north. However, things changed when models began showing a partial phase between the northern and southern branches of energy in response to the very positive PNA (western ridge) - which you can clearly see on this graph.





On the 500mb vorticity map valid for 1pm and 7pm Saturday, check out that piece of energy digging into the Midwest and toward the east coast. This energy was not always there on the models. But because of the extensive and strong western ridge, this piece of northern energy has no choice but to dig into the U.S. and try to phase with the southern energy. They never fully phase, but this northern energy is so strong is raises heights along the east coast which allows the low pressure that develops from the southern energy to track closer to the coast.



The low pressure takes a track to the 40/70 benchmark. The precipitation field is expansive in response to the partial phasing that is happening between each pieces of upper energy. It may not be a storm with the greatest frontogenesis, or lift, (mechanism that brings thick snow flakes, rates, and high snow totals), but it will be a moderate event for many.



Here is my snow map for this event. I am being mindful of dry air and a relatively quick moving system due to lack of blocking. Also, do not rule out mixing with rain along the Jersey Shore and southern/eastern parts of Long Island. This is why snow predictions may look lower than what some models are showing. Can't rule out isolated 6"+ amounts across parts of the area, mainly interior and southern NJ. Snow should start between 6-7am and end around 7-8pm.

Have fun Thumbs up



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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by mikeypizano on Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:34 am

Frank, I am going to be grading you on this Wink
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by frank 638 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:37 am

Thank you Frank for the map and post you put up finally our first snowstorm of the season

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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by Nyi1058 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:38 am

Hey frank! What’s the start time for the north fork of LI specifically Orient point ,

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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:43 am

Frank you and me paisan lock in step with this map - thanks for teh write up and work on this!!

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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:13 am

Thanks Frank!! Excited!!!
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:34 am

Cool I'll take 3 to 6 bring it. I thought it was into Sunday morning so glad to know it should be clear by then.
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by mikeypizano on Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:39 am

Frank, can you clarify something... is Wilkes-Barre/Scranton area in C-2 or 2-4?
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by RJB8525 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:04 am

thanks for the map, i have some reservations with this storm so we'll see how it pans out for us north western peeps
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:07 am

I'm hearing snow growth issues area wide by the soundings anyone have any info
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:13 am

Frank's numbers look good to me. My thought is that the heaviest precipitation will be closer to the coast, but that being close to the still relatively warm ocean will keep coastal areas above freezing with two accumulations problems: 1. Possible mixing with rain and 2. warm surfaces where the snow will not stick as easily during the day. So I'm thinking in terms of actual accumulation the highest totals will be from about 10-15 miles inland from the coast back to the I-295/287 corridors just west of the Turnpike. Slightly less north and west of there (i.e. Sussex/Warren/NE PA) due to lighter snowfall from the storm still being maybe just a bit east of the BM, and slightly less south and east (i.e. coastal Monmouth/Ocean/Atlantic/Cape May) due to possible mixing and sticking issues.
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:40 am

billg315 wrote:Frank's numbers look good to me. My thought is that the heaviest precipitation will be closer to the coast, but that being close to the still relatively warm ocean will keep coastal areas above freezing with two accumulations problems: 1. Possible mixing with rain and 2. warm surfaces where the snow will not stick as easily during the day. So I'm thinking in terms of actual accumulation the highest totals will be from about 10-15 miles inland from the coast back to the I-295/287 corridors just west of the Turnpike. Slightly less north and west of there (i.e. Sussex/Warren/NE PA) due to lighter snowfall from the storm still being maybe just a bit east of the BM, and slightly less south and east (i.e. coastal Monmouth/Ocean/Atlantic/Cape May) due to possible mixing and sticking issues.

For those unfamiliar with Long Island, the northern half (generally north of the LIE) is very hilly and forested. 100-200' elevation is common. I'm at 181'. We are also 15 miles from the Atlantic Ocean so oftentimes we get much more snow then forecast due to the elevation and cooler temps. Tomorrow seems to be a classic set up for us.
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by Carter bk on Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:46 am

So 3 to 6 good for brooklyn

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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by Roger92 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:55 am

I am not able to see the snow map which Frank has posted Mad

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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:08 pm

Roger92 wrote:I am not able to see the snow map which Frank has posted Mad

Are you able to see any of the images Frank Posted??

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by Roger92 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:15 pm

Yes, I seeing all images except the actual snow map.

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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:23 pm

Roger92 wrote:Yes, I  seeing all images except the actual snow map.



This work?

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2017-2018: 35"

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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:25 pm

12z GFS snow map


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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by sabamfa on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:36 pm

Can anyone give me any idea how much snow in Wayne, NJ by noon? I teach at William Paterson on Saturday mornings and my students have their final paper due, evaluations of me to do, and a short lecture. Need to try to squeeze that in.

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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by aiannone on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:41 pm

Ill be on my way down to LI tomorrow morning. Live updates will therefore occur from the Iannone residence lol
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:46 pm

aiannone wrote:Ill be on my way down to LI tomorrow morning. Live updates will therefore occur from the Iannone residence lol

We all know St James usually ends up with at least 1-3" more than the rest of us LI'ers. told ya

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by aiannone on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:51 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Ill be on my way down to LI tomorrow morning. Live updates will therefore occur from the Iannone residence lol

We all know St James usually ends up with at least 1-3" more than the rest of us LI'ers.  told ya

Elevation and no ocean! It's a sweet spot!
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:51 pm

sabamfa wrote:Can anyone give me any idea how much snow in Wayne, NJ by noon? I teach at William Paterson on Saturday mornings and my students have their final paper due, evaluations of me to do, and a short lecture. Need to try to squeeze that in.

1-3 inches

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by mikeypizano on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
sabamfa wrote:Can anyone give me any idea how much snow in Wayne, NJ by noon? I teach at William Paterson on Saturday mornings and my students have their final paper due, evaluations of me to do, and a short lecture. Need to try to squeeze that in.

1-3 inches

How about me? Pittston, between Wilkes-Barre and Scranton.
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Re: December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:54 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
sabamfa wrote:Can anyone give me any idea how much snow in Wayne, NJ by noon? I teach at William Paterson on Saturday mornings and my students have their final paper due, evaluations of me to do, and a short lecture. Need to try to squeeze that in.

1-3 inches

How about me? Pittston, between Wilkes-Barre and Scranton.

By Noon? Not much, maybe a coating to an inch or 2

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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