DEC 15 Coastal

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DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:20 pm

Peeps,

Time to start a new thread on this one - we have all SR models harping on an absolute major BD shift for most of us on this board.
We keep adjusting NW and at this rate CNJ on South maybe seeing 3-6" of white gold if these model runs come to fruition.
Need 0z suite to jump on board.
Ratio's will be 12-15:1



Not with ratios










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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by frank 638 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:26 pm

Amugs thank u for ur post and map you posted this is starting to get very exciting do you know how much snow we will see in the Bronx

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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:27 pm

RAP 01Z















and more to go BOOYAAHHH!!

1-3" NYC North
2-5/6" CNJ to SNJ

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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:42 pm

Where the heck is everyone?? My god this is shaping up to be a December to remember here peeps.

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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:48 pm

Late night crew HERE, Mugs! Very Happy

I love these last minute surprises.
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:49 pm

amugs wrote:Where the heck is everyone?? My god this is shaping up to be a December to remember here peeps.

Idk lol was wondering the same aha I'm at work, unfortunately, and will be until 3am, so I'll be checking in when I am, but won't be able to offer much :/

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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:51 pm

What is the timing with this one. Some models show a 6-8 hour event
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:53 pm

I am starting the WEST chant!
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:56 pm

amugs wrote:Where the heck is everyone?? My god this is shaping up to be a December to remember here peeps.

I’m here Mugs and SOME KIND OF FIRED UP! Being selfish here I see that 3”+ extending up from central Jersey into LI and my backyard. .3” qpf. On the SREFS. How reliable are these models you’re posting peasan?
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by frank 638 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:00 pm

I would love to stay up but I have to be up by 430 Tom morning hopefully we have a nice surprise for us Tom and yes this Dec is turning out to be good compared to last year and the following year i am very happy so far good night everyone

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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by SENJsnowman on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:08 pm

Wow...AMAZING work by the long range crew today. Does anyone in the NYC metro area have a clue how high the odds right now are that we get hit with a decent bit of snow tomorrow?

And all of a sudden, that's 3 legit snows in 1 week and winter hasn't even started yet?!       Very Happy

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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by aiannone on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:25 pm

OHH BOY HERE WE GO! Just got back to LI! Welcome home present?!
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by hyde345 on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:34 pm

mikeypizano wrote:I am starting the WEST chant!

And I'm starting the north.
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:35 pm

Wait is this thing going to start around lunchtime tomorrow? Looks like by 1:00 PM tomorrow many of us will be getting the goods. Love it but also hate it. If that is the start time I will be driving home in it. Ugh.
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:37 pm

RGEM coming in like NAM baby, NW shift is steady and real.


Gfs running and coming g in HOT

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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:41 pm

GFS makes a huge jump NW GAME ON!!


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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:42 pm

All we need is another 50 mile shift and LHV and NNJ is in the 2-4" range easily

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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by WeatherBob on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:50 pm

I think the models have come into late agreement with the strength and position of the Jet. Look at the 300MB on the latest runs, 170KT just to our south!!!
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:57 pm

WeatherBob wrote:I think the models have come into late agreement with the strength and position of the Jet.  Look at the 300MB on the latest runs, 170KT just to our south!!!  

Bob how much NW trend do we have left in this scenerio? PnA ridge/heights out west seem to be on the rise which is helping bring this more NW, no?

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:00 pm

Earthlight harping big time surprise snowstorm CNJ to SNJ

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/941517594150035456

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:03 pm

Lee Goldberg just sounded the alarm
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:04 pm

Yup just heard him to soul and he said "I am working on my snow totals"

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:08 pm

Ratios are 15:1 with this so .10 =1.5" of white gold
.2 = 3"

Okay hitting the hay and this is a 6-8 hour storm starting at about noon tomorrow through the rush.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:09 pm

Overnight crew bring this home.

Let's go peeps a December to Remember! !

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by WeatherBob on Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:09 pm

The GFS is showing a max Jet of 180KTS!!!, just to our south. This is a fast moving system and not much more moisture to work with. Could get that mod to heavy burst if the trough just happens to sharpen a bit more than the models are saying. I can not see more than .3 to .4 max precip but that can turn out to be a 6" to 7" max somewhere. This is a situation that you have to wait for the 12z Fri models to come out to pinpoint exactly where the trough starts to sharpen up.
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal

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