DEC 15 Coastal

Page 2 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by SENJsnowman on Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:19 pm

Is there any chance that this storm can get to churning or is definitely just a clipper?


Right now the Jersey shore is in the heart of the bulls-eye. But that's probably gonna change and now it can only get worse for us from here! lol

SENJsnowman

Posts : 212
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 45
Location : Bayville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by aiannone on Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:03 am

Euro now on board
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3536
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:34 am

aiannone wrote:Euro now on board

GAME ON! What are you thinking for us here on the island kid? 2-4”? Is that high or low?
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3619
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:50 am

Somethings fishy here. Inside of 12hiurs till the snow starts but no mention on the NWS site?
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3619
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:08 am

syosnow94 wrote:Somethings fishy here. Inside of 12hiurs till the snow starts but no mention on the NWS site?  

I noticed that too!!!! Very odd, considering you're looking at another advisory-level to possibly borderline warning-level snowfall.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4584
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:06 am

WWA issued for 2-3” but only for eastern Suffolk. And 1-3” for south Jersey.  Oh well. Can’t win em all
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3619
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by frank 638 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:21 am

As for me they have 1 to 2 inches of snow I wish that was 1 to 2 feet lol

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1741
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 35
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:45 am

Everything held serve overnight Central Jersey looks to be the jackpot even especially Coastal area
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4077
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:53 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Everything held serve overnight Central Jersey looks to be the jackpot even especially Coastal area

Skins we went to bed talking about 2-4”+ from the city south and east with more possible and now the “jackpot” according to the NWS is 1-3” at best down by you? How is that?
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3619
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:57 am

I'm going with three to five for my area central New Jersey and South New Jersey
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4077
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:09 am

My first Snow Map of the season!!



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5832
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by track17 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:10 am

Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:53 am

High ratio snow at .3 12:1 ratio to 15:1 is 3-4
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4077
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:58 am

track17 wrote:Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley

Agreed. I said as much yesterday. BY THE WAY ANYONE BUT ME EVER NOTICE THAT WHENEVER SCOTT MAKES A MAP WITH DIFFERENT ZONES HE ALWAYS JUST SNEAKS HIS TOWN INTO THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ZONES WHILE MANAGING TO JUST SNEAK MINE INTO THE LOWER ONE? Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad tongue
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3619
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:21 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:High ratio snow at .3 12:1 ratio to 15:1 is 3-4

Actually 3.6"-4.5"

And for most of the area, with the exception of maybe the southern half of NJ, ratios will be higher than 12:1..count on it

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5832
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:25 am

syosnow94 wrote:
track17 wrote:Syo let's be honest the nws and the pros have no clue. Someone like skins is much better then all of them combined. The others on this board are included too like mugs, sroc, and jmanley

Agreed. I said as much yesterday.  BY THE WAY ANYONE BUT ME EVER NOTICE THAT WHENEVER SCOTT MAKES A MAP WITH DIFFERENT ZONES HE ALWAYS JUST SNEAKS HIS TOWN INTO THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ZONES WHILE MANAGING TO JUST SNEAK MINE INTO THE LOWER ONE?  Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad tongue

LOL  Not this time Jimmy.  I tucked myself just west of Zone 4.  Close enough though where an extra 0.05-0.1" of QPF puts me in 4  told ya





Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:18 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5832
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:28 am

Just busting chops.  Look closely at your map. If you continued zone 4 from Jersey on the same curved pattern as every other line you drew, we would both be in zone 4. Double whammy!,ive me odds on both you and me getting 3”+
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3619
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:45 am

Anyone know what time the short range hi res models run? Interested to see the qpf. Output by the SREFS and the HRRR
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3619
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:48 am

syosnow94 wrote:Just busting chops.  Look closely at your map.  If you continued zone 4 from Jersey on the same curved pattern as every other line you drew, we would both be in zone 4.  Double whammy!,ive me odds on both you and me getting 3”+

I wouldn’t have it any other way Paisan. I can take it. geek santa

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5832
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:13 am

sroc4 wrote:
And for most of the area, with the exception of maybe the southern half of NJ,  ratios will be higher than 12:1..count on it

SNJ ratios might not get higher? Why the difference?

SENJsnowman

Posts : 212
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 45
Location : Bayville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:17 am

Also, looks like Frank's snowfall potential as per the scroll has more than doubled this mornings. That's a good sign!

SENJsnowman

Posts : 212
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 45
Location : Bayville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:19 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Also, looks like Frank's snowfall potential as per the scroll has more than doubled this mornings. That's a good sign!

That was me actually. The way I see it since he hasn't changed it he either isn't paying attention or agrees. Wink


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5832
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by Snow88 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:25 am

Nam shows 1-3 for the NYC area based off 10:1 ratios

It might be a little more than 1-3 with the ratios.
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2021
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 30
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:31 am

Snow88 wrote:Nam shows 1-3 for the NYC area based off 10:1 ratios

It might be a little more than 1-3 with the ratios.

15:1 minimum in the NYC area and coming down at night. So NAM VERBATIM would be 2.5”-4” event.
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3619
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by RJB8525 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:32 am

NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-101>106-151945-
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton,
Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
834 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...Snow to Effect the Evening Commute...

A period of snow will move in southwest to northeast beginning
between noon and 2pm and will continue to for several hours before
tapering off early this evening. While amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are currently expected for southeast Pennsylvania and central New
Jersey with a dusting to an inch north of here, the timing of the
snow coinciding with the afternoon rush hour could result in
slippery travel and travel delays.
avatar
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1911
Reputation : 26
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: DEC 15 Coastal

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum