DEC 15 Coastal
+25
Vinnydula
billg315
Scullybutcher
docstox12
oldtimer
nutleyblizzard
Math23x7
bloc1357
jmanley32
essexcountypete
RJB8525
Snow88
track17
sroc4
WeatherBob
bobjohnsonforthehall
hyde345
aiannone
SENJsnowman
mikeypizano
skinsfan1177
rb924119
SoulSingMG
frank 638
amugs
29 posters
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Snow88 wrote:Nam shows 1-3 for the NYC area based off 10:1 ratios
It might be a little more than 1-3 with the ratios.
15:1 minimum in the NYC area and coming down at night. So NAM VERBATIM would be 2.5”-4” event.
Guest- Guest
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-101>106-151945-
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton,
Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
834 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017
...Snow to Effect the Evening Commute...
A period of snow will move in southwest to northeast beginning
between noon and 2pm and will continue to for several hours before
tapering off early this evening. While amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are currently expected for southeast Pennsylvania and central New
Jersey with a dusting to an inch north of here, the timing of the
snow coinciding with the afternoon rush hour could result in
slippery travel and travel delays.
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton,
Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
834 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017
...Snow to Effect the Evening Commute...
A period of snow will move in southwest to northeast beginning
between noon and 2pm and will continue to for several hours before
tapering off early this evening. While amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are currently expected for southeast Pennsylvania and central New
Jersey with a dusting to an inch north of here, the timing of the
snow coinciding with the afternoon rush hour could result in
slippery travel and travel delays.
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
You would not think snow is coming based off the radar
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
RGEM would bring warning-criteria snowfall to all areas southeast of a line from Point Pleasant to Dover, DE. WHAT IS THE WEATHER SERVICE DOING????? They should definitely expand their advisories at least up to NYC IMO and bump up the totals by almost a factor of two.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Latest HRRR - this is 4PM - what a nightmare shaping up for the commute as per Earthlight
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
From a notable Weenie who is VERY GOOD at these storms
How much you wanna bet the convection off the coast is throwing the models and this comes west another 50 miles ? If so holy snikes then NYC metro in for a YUUGGGE surprise
How much you wanna bet the convection off the coast is throwing the models and this comes west another 50 miles ? If so holy snikes then NYC metro in for a YUUGGGE surprise
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
POPPIN FAST and HARD
rb with teh call again on this one 3 for 3 kid!!!
Good sign that we have this this far west - shield may actually expand - high positive bust potential
rb with teh call again on this one 3 for 3 kid!!!
Good sign that we have this this far west - shield may actually expand - high positive bust potential
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
amugs wrote:POPPIN FAST and HARD
rb with teh call again on this one 3 for 3 kid!!!
Good sign that we have this this far west - shield may actually expand - high positive bust potential
Thanks, mugs, but you were on the front lines with this also as I recall, so don't forget about that!! CMC got me singing Canada's anthem for our Jersey Shore peeps!!!! 6-7" with ratios for those guys!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BRING IT ON BABY!!!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
14z HRRR noticeably wetter also.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
amugs wrote:POPPIN FAST and HARD
rb with teh call again on this one 3 for 3 kid!!!
You guys are on to this before the masses even had a clue. It feels like insider trading. You guys are the best
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Light snow being reported in Fredericksburg, MD. Here she comes.......can't wait to watch that precipitation field begin to blossom like a spring time flower after an April shower. Once that mid-level trough starts sharpening and tilting negative in concert with the jet and low-level warm advection we'll be cooking with gas
And thanks, Pete!! We definitely try to do the best we can, while having a lot of fun and laughs along the way!!!
And thanks, Pete!! We definitely try to do the best we can, while having a lot of fun and laughs along the way!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
My map if I could make one would be 1-3” on a straight line from Baltimore thru NYC N and W. 2-4” s and e with isolated 5” amounts along the immediate jersey shore and eastern tip of LI
Guest- Guest
Re: DEC 15 Coastal
The NWS must have heard my request - WWA now extend all the way NYC and southern CT right along and east of I-95!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
From Earthlight
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:POPPIN FAST and HARD
rb with teh call again on this one 3 for 3 kid!!!
Good sign that we have this this far west - shield may actually expand - high positive bust potential
Thanks, mugs, but you were on the front lines with this also as I recall, so don't forget about that!! CMC got me singing Canada's anthem for our Jersey Shore peeps!!!! 6-7" with ratios for those guys!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BRING IT ON BABY!!!!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Nice surprise here sorry haven't been post much but been reading. Sroc you think it could see more than 3 that would put me over 10 and that's close to half of all last year lol. This is cool but I do hope we get a monster or two.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Light snow now being reported in suburbs of Philly
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Only expecting an inch here on CLI, but I hope i get a surprise
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
rb924119 wrote:Light snow now being reported in suburbs of Philly
Models are confused with convection as the super weenie onanoterh board has sadi along
This is so much further by about 50-75 more miles than models had
CPA was to see ugatz!!
From USAwx board - this is the calculated axis of teh heavier dbz bands from teh latest Jet Streak rb? Armond? Bob? Buehler?
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Snowing here - ahead of schedule!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:Light snow now being reported in suburbs of Philly
Models are confused with convection as the super weenie onanoterh board has sadi along
This is so much further by about 50-75 more miles than models had
Snowing very lightly here at the shore already. But I mean VERY lightly. lol But still much earlier than called for.
Mugs, is this strictly a nowcast situation in your opinion?
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
LP center well northwest of modeling.....coming NNE over the Delmarva per latest surface observations.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Ever so lightly starting to snow here on South Shore of Long Island....Intermittent flurries
bloc1357- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Yup models totally confused by the convection meso low aspect not the first nor last time this will happen!SENJsnowman wrote:amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:Light snow now being reported in suburbs of Philly
Models are confused with convection as the super weenie onanoterh board has sadi along
This is so much further by about 50-75 more miles than models had
Snowing very lightly here at the shore already. But I mean VERY lightly. lol But still much earlier than called for.
Mugs, is this strictly a nowcast situation in your opinion?
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Flurries here on the north shore of LI. Temp dropping. Down 1.5 degrees from evap cooling in 10 min
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
rb924119 wrote:LP center well northwest of modeling.....coming NNE over the Delmarva per latest surface observations.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: DEC 15 Coastal
Is that bad for the shore? It don't sound good. Sounds like its gonna push all the hard stuff N and W of us...
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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