Long Range Thread 16.0

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Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:24 pm

The 16th edition of the Long Range thread. This is always my favorite thread of any weather forum because we essentially get to predict the future. How cool, right? Anyway - the main focus over the next several days is not going to be the whimpy dinky minor snowfall on Saturday. It is going to be the big kahuna. Aka, the possible Godzilla, Roidzilla and maybe even Frankzilla that could effect us between January 4th and 6th. I do not want to hype the storm up but the set-up is looking awfully good for this not to produce for someone in the Northeast. New England has a VERY high chance of seeing a Godzilla. Question is can we get this to phase at our latitude so it also brings us one?

Images from today's 12z EURO:





500mb low closes off over the TN Valley which is insane!





MOG

As mentioned, the huge PNA spike (west ridge) is what's making this possible. It is imperative models do NOT trend weaker with this ridge. Either keep it the same or amplify even more. A weaker or flatter ridge means a storm system that phases late (hence why New England is in sweet spot cause they seem to be in a win-win situation) or an out to sea storm.

We'll see where this goes


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:28 pm

Wow frank even mentioning the possibility of the ceiling storm frankzilla is enough to perk my interest. Is this outcome plausible and to have that piece hang out over the NYC metro forever?
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:30 pm

EURO Ensembles agree with OP. Big storm signal.


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by frank 638 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:31 pm

My fingers are crossed Frank

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:32 pm

What might be even more incredible is tries a repeat at the end of its run lol imagine that......our hearts would explode aha

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:45 pm

rb924119 wrote:What might be even more incredible is tries a repeat at the end of its run lol imagine that......our hearts would explode aha

Let's hope its not a repeat of last weeks run...
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:25 pm

Just out curiosity what's the winds like on that euro run verbatim?
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:28 pm


Latest EURO control run shows the worst case scenario (or best) depending on your point of view. Remember folks just eye candy at this point!
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:29 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Latest EURO control run shows the worst case scenario (or best) depending on your point of view. Remember folks just eye candy at this point!

I am going to frame that image. Good LORD.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:31 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Latest EURO control run shows the worst case scenario (or best) depending on your point of view. Remember folks just eye candy at this point!
mother of God that's easily 100 mph winds and can we see the snow map must be better than the operatuonal.looks like some runs from Sandy. I'm crossing everything I can lol.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:41 pm

Thanks for posting Frank!! can and will not get excited until next week!! c an you do us a favor and refresh our memory of what the snow levels are...mozz....can't spell it-thru frankzilla and I only have one eye to work with..have some stupid eye infection...and cant see.. affraid affraid but that map looks pretty...
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:47 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Thanks for posting Frank!! can and will not get excited until next week!!  c an you do us a favor and refresh our memory of what the snow levels are...mozz....can't spell it-thru frankzilla  and I only have one eye to work with..have some stupid eye infection...and cant see.. affraid affraid but that map looks pretty...

Here is how snowstorms are classified on NJ Strong Wx Community

Mothrazilla 6-12 inches
Godzilla 12-23 inches
Roidzilla 24-35 inches
Frankzilla 36+ Inches

Here is how snowstorms are classified on other Wx Communities...

SECS 6-11 inches Significant East Coast Storm
MECS 12-23 inches Major East Coast Storm
HECS 24-35 inches Historic East Coast Storm
BECS 36+ inches Biblical East Coast Storm
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:50 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Thanks for posting Frank!! can and will not get excited until next week!!  c an you do us a favor and refresh our memory of what the snow levels are...mozz....can't spell it-thru frankzilla  and I only have one eye to work with..have some stupid eye infection...and cant see.. affraid affraid but that map looks pretty...

Here is how snowstorms are classified on NJ Strong Wx Community

Mothrazilla 6-12 inches
Godzilla 12-23 inches
Roidzilla 24-35 inches
Frankzilla 36+ Inches

Here is how snowstorms are classified on other Wx Communities...

SECS 6-11 inches Significant East Coast Storm
MECS 12-23 inches Major East Coast Storm
HECS 24-35 inches Historic East Coast Storm
BECS 36+ inches Biblical East Coast Storm

thanks I know it is somewhere on the forum...but did not want to strain and look for it...Wink
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:56 pm

I know it's prolly fantasy but if the control happened when was the last time we had a sub 950 mb snowstorm?
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I know it's prolly fantasy but if the control happened when was the last time we had a sub 950 mb snowstorm?

What was the March 2017 blizzard?
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by frank 638 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:02 pm

Frank the weather channel has introduced a new winter storm the name is called Frankie not a bad name.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by GreyBeard on Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:21 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Thanks for posting Frank!! can and will not get excited until next week!!  c an you do us a favor and refresh our memory of what the snow levels are...mozz....can't spell it-thru frankzilla  and I only have one eye to work with..have some stupid eye infection...and cant see.. affraid affraid but that map looks pretty...

Here is how snowstorms are classified on NJ Strong Wx Community

Mothrazilla 6-12 inches
Godzilla 12-23 inches
Roidzilla 24-35 inches
Frankzilla 36+ Inches

Here is how snowstorms are classified on other Wx Communities...

SECS 6-11 inches Significant East Coast Storm
MECS 12-23 inches Major East Coast Storm
HECS 24-35 inches Historic East Coast Storm
BECS 36+ inches Biblical East Coast Storm

thanks I know it is somewhere on the forum...but did not want to strain and look for it...Wink


Hey Mom, don't mean to bust your chops, but it's been asked so many times that Frank put it at the bottom line of all his posts. Thought a veteran like yourself would have spotted that. tongue At any rate, it's too early to get all worked up about another big storm signal a week away, but if Frank calls for a biggie every week eventually he will hit on one geek

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by GreyBeard on Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:32 pm

All kidding aside, wouldn't this be a classis nor'easter Miller A type storm if it were to verify??? I remember as a kid watching the big storms start out in the northwest, dive down into the gulf, and then head up the east coast laden with moisture. Those were the best storms I remember.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:38 pm

Screw you and this thread Frank. Very Happy Shocked

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:50 pm

........and don’t anyone else say “ King EURO”. It’s been outperformed for over a year now
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:06 pm

syosnow94 wrote:........and don’t anyone else say “ King EURO”. It’s been outperformed for over a year now

......but he "nailed Sandy!"

lol!
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:14 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Thanks for posting Frank!! can and will not get excited until next week!!  c an you do us a favor and refresh our memory of what the snow levels are...mozz....can't spell it-thru frankzilla  and I only have one eye to work with..have some stupid eye infection...and cant see.. affraid affraid but that map looks pretty...

Here is how snowstorms are classified on NJ Strong Wx Community

Mothrazilla 6-12 inches
Godzilla 12-23 inches
Roidzilla 24-35 inches
Frankzilla 36+ Inches

Here is how snowstorms are classified on other Wx Communities...

SECS 6-11 inches Significant East Coast Storm
MECS 12-23 inches Major East Coast Storm
HECS 24-35 inches Historic East Coast Storm
BECS 36+ inches Biblical East Coast Storm

thanks I know it is somewhere on the forum...but did not want to strain and look for it...Wink


Hey Mom, don't mean to bust your chops, but it's been asked so many times that Frank put it at the bottom line of all his posts. Thought a veteran like yourself would have spotted that. tongue At any rate, it's too early to get all worked up about another big storm signal a week away, but if Frank calls for a biggie every week eventually he will hit on one geek

ha ha...I literally can not see out of my right eye..and have had the kindle to my face to see with the other...I just looked again and saw he had the link...Happy New Year!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:51 pm

Ripped this map from Twitter

EPS. The LP will Bomb out due to the latent heat in the Hotlantic just N of Bahamas. Bomb genesis is likely



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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:04 pm

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1YqKDLBlpAYKV

Bernie Rayno's take on next week
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jimv45 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:18 pm

Bernie is right on to many pieces that have to work for this to be big. he is right about the models that will be going back and forth will see by next week I hope

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

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