Long Range Thread 16.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:24 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:https://www.pscp.tv/w/1YqKDLBlpAYKV

Bernie Rayno's take on next week

good video, laid everything on the table
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Carter bk on Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:43 pm

Made my nerves worst it will happen on my daughter 14th birthday. she will love to get double that so im. Rooting for the big OnE

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:45 pm

GEFS are way west to the point where a few of the indies are inside the benchmark.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by MattyICE on Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:25 pm

That’s good because the 18z was way OTS

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:03 pm

Since this potential storm is still several days away, its a good idea to follow the GEFS and EPS ensembles until we get within 72 hours. Enter at your own risk if you live and die with the op runs. Theres bound to be some flip flopping with the models until they converge on a final solution.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by MattyICE on Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:29 pm

Completely agree. Fully expect wide swings both east OTS and coastal huggers.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by hyde345 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:14 pm

syosnow94 wrote:........and don’t anyone else say “ King EURO”. It’s been outperformed for over a year now

Outperformed by what model exactly? The Euro is no where near perfect but it is the best of the global models by a large margin. The GFS is a POS.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:23 pm

hyde345 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:........and don’t anyone else say “ King EURO”. It’s been outperformed for over a year now

Outperformed by what model exactly? The Euro is no where near perfect but it is the best of the global models by a large margin. The GFS is a POS.
Agreed. While we won't know for several days what the final track will be for next weeks storm, if I were wagering a bet I would feel much more confident that the GFS will cave to the EURO and not the other way around.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:39 pm

Outperformed by the CMC and By the short range models. My larger point was no LE models have done well this winter. It's been the short range models inside of 3 days that have done well
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by hyde345 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:46 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Outperformed by the CMC and By the short range models. My larger point was no LE models have done well this winter. It's been the short range models inside of 3 days that have done well

The mesoscale SR models are meant to perform better inside of 3 days because of high resolutions. In this time frame though the Euro is still the best global model although the upgraded CMC has done well also. The GFS has not been good at all.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by hyde345 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:48 pm

I recently read the Euro still grades out best for Global models, followed by UKIE, CMC, and GFS in that order.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:23 pm

GFS is lost. Even further OTS than 18z.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:34 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS is lost. Even further OTS than 18z.
cmc follows gfs well well, euro no king.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:56 pm

Also just read that almost all ensembles including euro are east so I fully expect a way ots euro run.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by lglickman1 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:58 pm

Did we lose the PAC ridge?

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:19 am

I'm really liking tonights UKIE run. Unable to post map, but the low is off the coast of NC. Its much closer to the coast than what the GFS shows. Trough is in a better position too. Would of been an interesting run if it had played out. Model only goes out to 144hrs.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by hyde345 on Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:37 am

jmanley32 wrote:Also just read that almost all ensembles including euro are east so I fully expect a way ots euro run.

GEFS are west of OP and we are still waiting on Euro. Still a long way to go on this one.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:54 am

hyde345 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Also just read that almost all ensembles including euro are east so I fully expect a way ots euro run.

GEFS are west of OP and we are still waiting on Euro. Still a long way to go on this one.

THIS! Big red flag that Op is OFF.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by hyde345 on Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:45 am

Euro way east of 12z. Ooof.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:57 am

hyde345 wrote:Euro way east of 12z. Ooof.
and that ended quicker than last weeks threat for sat lol. i suppose its still to far off but you have full model consensus now suggesting the ensembles are off?
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:13 am

jmanley32 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Euro way east of 12z. Ooof.
and that ended quicker than last weeks threat for sat lol. i suppose its still to far off but you have full model consensus now suggesting the ensembles are off?

Doesn't this fit the pattern we've seen all year though? It almost seems like we are "supposed" to lose the storm at day 5-6 and then bring it back at day 3-4.

For what ever reason, I'm gonna remain optimistic and just assume that this bad boy re-emerges in the next couple of days...

And in his latest video, Bernie says "most storms are OTS a week before or even 3-4 days before...this WILL BE a classic windshield wiper, wild changes every day"...


Last edited by SENJsnowman on Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:29 am; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Quietace on Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:01 am

jmanley32 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Euro way east of 12z. Ooof.
and that ended quicker than last weeks threat for sat lol. i suppose its still to far off but you have full model consensus now suggesting the ensembles are off?
Hey look, Modelology instead of meteorology is taking charge. You can live and die by each deterministic run!

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by mikeypizano on Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:48 am

I say we should just get rid of the models all together... they are never right anyway so why waste all the computing power on them... (end sarcasm)
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:59 am

The pieces are all still there. They just didn't come together on any of the models last night besides the UKIE. Without Atlantic blocking we have to rely on perfect timing which is always a pain. But hopefully the PAC ridge is amplified enough to give us a chance for all of this to come together.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by mikeypizano on Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:18 am

From what you said Frank, I won’t even bother transferring gas from the 5 gal to the 1 gal can...
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

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