Long Range Thread 16.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:14 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Put out an update on the weekend storm in the January thread.

I do see the snowstorm threat showing up on guidance for the middle of next week. We'll keep an eye on it. Interesting evolution.
Yes very interesting negative AO nice positive PNA Ridge and an East base negative Nao block. You would think with the East base Atlantic block it would come close to the coast or even west of us however the PNA Ridge is east of the ideal spot for us which technically would put the low pressure off the coast interesting model runs coming up the next few days
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:53 am

+PNA/-NAO/-AO for the middle of next week. Actually liking our chances for snow at this time...


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:54 pm

Isnt it funny, wasn't the 17th one of the so called torch dates? Now we may see a snow storm.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Isnt it funny, wasn't the 17th one of the so called torch dates? Now we may see a snow storm.

Bill Evans even talked about it at noon today
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by docstox12 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:20 am

I read the NWS analysis this morning which says this is going to be a clipper system but they are watching it closely for further development.Anyway, back into the cold we go.Hopefully, this next system is more than a 2 inch clipper.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:50 am

12z popping a low off Carolinas coast
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:40 pm

I'm not enthused by the potential event next week. At all. It's a clipper-type system for us, which means I'm not expecting much of anything, but maybe northern New England can squeak out a bigger event from it. Even there, though, I don't think it's much of anything. Just my opinion.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by docstox12 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:48 pm

I'm hoping for more but Lee said a few days ago this is a snow shower type event he expects.That map skins posted is interesting.Who knows.......?????
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:22 pm

GEFS
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:29 pm

rb924119 wrote:I'm not enthused by the potential event next week. At all. It's a clipper-type system for us, which means I'm not expecting much of anything, but maybe northern New England can squeak out a bigger event from it. Even there, though, I don't think it's much of anything. Just my opinion.

Euro would have to disagree

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:29 pm

Starting late next week, a west coast trough looks to make its presence which is bad news for snow lovers in the east. Not only that, the ensembles and EURO weeklies have this aforementioned trough lasting for weeks.  If we don't get snow next week, it may be a while before we get another shot.  Perhaps in late February the ridge out west returns to put us back in the snow chances.  But that's not a guarantee.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:38 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Starting late next week, a west coast trough looks to make its presence which is bad news for snow lovers in the east. Not only that, the ensembles and EURO weeklies have this aforementioned trough lasting for weeks.  If we don't get snow next week, it may be a while before we get another shot.  Perhaps in late February the ridge out west returns to put us back in the snow chances.  But that's not a guarantee.


Perhaps late Feb?? Lol Oh Mikey. Not sure if you have looked at or understand the stratospheric influence on the horizon. But if current changes continue expect the modeling to catch up by about the 20th and you will see additional cold and snow chances show up on the models before late Feb.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I'm not enthused by the potential event next week. At all. It's a clipper-type system for us, which means I'm not expecting much of anything, but maybe northern New England can squeak out a bigger event from it. Even there, though, I don't think it's much of anything. Just my opinion.

Euro would have to disagree

A slippery set up but doable based on what Im seeing...not just euro

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:58 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I'm not enthused by the potential event next week. At all. It's a clipper-type system for us, which means I'm not expecting much of anything, but maybe northern New England can squeak out a bigger event from it. Even there, though, I don't think it's much of anything. Just my opinion.

Euro would have to disagree

A slippery set up but doable based on what Im seeing...not just euro

Oh don't get me wrong, Scott; I see how it can happen and can understand your point of view. My argument is that models are currently too far south and too amplified with the whole evolution based on what I'm seeing in the general Hemispheric setup. I don't see the mid-level low getting any further south than about the Mason-Dixon Line, and actually think it ends up tracking pretty much right over our area. If that's the case, even if amplified, we wind up in the "disconnect" region between the lower-levels and the mid- and upper-levels. Secondly, I think we end up with an initial closer low over the Midwest that ends up opening up, tilting positive and shearing out as the pattern breaks down. Lastly, the whole system is coming from the wrong direction. This is entirely northern stream driven, which means it has no deep moisture source (clipper). There's no southern stream energy involved, and there's no moisture transport out ahead. The entire fetch is from Canada. So, even if cyclogenesis can be induced near the coast, with how fast the pattern is, there is no way that there is going to be enough time for the system to develop enough to throw enough moisture back from the Atlantic.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:04 pm


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:06 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Starting late next week, a west coast trough looks to make its presence which is bad news for snow lovers in the east. Not only that, the ensembles and EURO weeklies have this aforementioned trough lasting for weeks.  If we don't get snow next week, it may be a while before we get another shot.  Perhaps in late February the ridge out west returns to put us back in the snow chances.  But that's not a guarantee.


Perhaps late Feb??  Lol Oh Mikey.  Not sure if you have looked at or understand the stratospheric influence on the horizon.  But if current changes continue expect the modeling to catch up by about the 20th and you will see additional cold and snow chances show up on the models before late Feb.  

Strongly agree with this, though, buddy ahaha there is definitely strong support for more of a transient type of pattern, where no real "pattern" can hit hold. Instead, it looks to me like there will be a strong tendency for shortwaves to continuously crash beneath the ridge in eastern North America. If you want to know how it can snow in an overall transient, "wam" pattern; that's exactly how. Also, as I mentioned a few days ago, even though the local pattern may not look great, there are signals for coordinated Wave 1 attacks on the Stratosphere, starting in a few days. With prolonged attacks looking likely, I expect the manifestation to begin showing by the end of the first week, maybe ten days, of February, with a return to a similar pattern to what we just came out of by then. The EURO Weeklies show VERY STRONG SUPPORT for this. Actually, we are about to enter a very similar pattern to what set up our recent impressive wintry stretch.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:09 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Pretty map, though, I'll admit ahaha

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:14 pm

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Starting late next week, a west coast trough looks to make its presence which is bad news for snow lovers in the east. Not only that, the ensembles and EURO weeklies have this aforementioned trough lasting for weeks.  If we don't get snow next week, it may be a while before we get another shot.  Perhaps in late February the ridge out west returns to put us back in the snow chances.  But that's not a guarantee.


Perhaps late Feb??  Lol Oh Mikey.  Not sure if you have looked at or understand the stratospheric influence on the horizon.  But if current changes continue expect the modeling to catch up by about the 20th and you will see additional cold and snow chances show up on the models before late Feb.  

Strongly agree with this, though, buddy ahaha there is definitely strong support for more of a transient type of pattern, where no real "pattern" can hit hold. Instead, it looks to me like there will be a strong tendency for shortwaves to continuously crash beneath the ridge in eastern North America. If you want to know how it can snow in an overall transient, "wam" pattern; that's exactly how. Also, as I mentioned a few days ago, even though the local pattern may not look great, there are signals for coordinated Wave 1 attacks on the Stratosphere, starting in a few days. With prolonged attacks looking likely, I expect the manifestation to begin showing by the end of the first week, maybe ten days, of February, with a return to a similar pattern to what we just came out of by then. The EURO Weeklies show VERY STRONG SUPPORT for this. Actually, we are about to enter a very similar pattern to what set up our recent impressive wintry stretch.

Here is a strong wave flux forecasted over the next 7-14days. You can see zonal wind anomalies are forecasted to drop off as well.


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:25 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Starting late next week, a west coast trough looks to make its presence which is bad news for snow lovers in the east. Not only that, the ensembles and EURO weeklies have this aforementioned trough lasting for weeks.  If we don't get snow next week, it may be a while before we get another shot.  Perhaps in late February the ridge out west returns to put us back in the snow chances.  But that's not a guarantee.


Perhaps late Feb??  Lol Oh Mikey.  Not sure if you have looked at or understand the stratospheric influence on the horizon.  But if current changes continue expect the modeling to catch up by about the 20th and you will see additional cold and snow chances show up on the models before late Feb.  

Strongly agree with this, though, buddy ahaha there is definitely strong support for more of a transient type of pattern, where no real "pattern" can hit hold. Instead, it looks to me like there will be a strong tendency for shortwaves to continuously crash beneath the ridge in eastern North America. If you want to know how it can snow in an overall transient, "wam" pattern; that's exactly how. Also, as I mentioned a few days ago, even though the local pattern may not look great, there are signals for coordinated Wave 1 attacks on the Stratosphere, starting in a few days. With prolonged attacks looking likely, I expect the manifestation to begin showing by the end of the first week, maybe ten days, of February, with a return to a similar pattern to what we just came out of by then. The EURO Weeklies show VERY STRONG SUPPORT for this. Actually, we are about to enter a very similar pattern to what set up our recent impressive wintry stretch.

Here is a strong wave flux forecasted over the next 7-14days.  You can see zonal wind anomalies are forecasted to drop off as well.  


BINGO!! Thank you for the big assist, sir!! Haha

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:30 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
pouch what a snow hole wth lol
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:41 pm

EPS looks great for next week.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by frank 638 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:42 pm

So I am guessing next week storm on Tuesday or Wednesday will be a coating to an inch I'm guessing or nothing

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:42 pm

EPS - WOW

Barking at this wave 2

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:32 pm

Okay this is pertty incredible in my book since I and many oterhs have vbeen taking about a pattern flip so to speak to an Above Normal regime in the means/overall temps wise.

There are many mechanisms that are in conflict and muted or overriding this. It is a complex set up that starts in the Indian Ocean region with the MJO that is in a strong phase 2 into 3 next week. As Sroc pointed out and Dr,. Cohen wrote about this week we have a good attack of the PV that is being forecasted to elongate and stretch out like it did on December for latter Januray but more so into earl February.

WE have PAC wave breaks lined up again that woudl help rebuild the EPO down teh road and a poleward extension of teh PNA. One thing that is evident is a frigid Canada that will remain frigid and snowy.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:53 pm

THIS IS SOMETHING BY THE GFS


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