Long Range Thread 16.0

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Post by Guest on Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:04 pm

Ok rb I give. You win. You bitch-slapped me pretty good there. I hope you’re right. I don’t get the snow totals reference though

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Post by rb924119 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:13 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Ok rb I give.  You win.  You bitch-slapped me pretty good there.  I hope you’re right.  I don’t get the snow totals reference though

I meant no disrespect by my reply; I hope it did not come across that way, or even come across as being "stern". If it did, I sincerely apologize. I was just stating facts in response. I hope I'm right too, buddy, believe me; the taste of crow gets old after a while, and I'd hate to have to sit through another meal of with egg on my face ahahaha and it was referring to your calculation of only having less than four weeks of actual winter left lmao

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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:04 pm

18z NAM a little colder for wednesday
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Captur58
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Post by amugs on Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:07 pm

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Namconus_asnow_neus_29

HELOOO N&W

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Post by amugs on Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:08 pm

From Dougie Fesh Pro Met
If you want a front end thump, this is the SLP position to do it. The HP off the Mid-Atlantic coast is much less emphasized, and the 1040mb HP to our northeast provides a classic NE low-level cold drain. Notice how the higher isobars bend back to the Southwest. The NE low-level cold drain coming off of New England is also a dry source region without downsloping, so you can keep lower dewpoints without sacrificing moisture.
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 B125BF7B-4352-4F5F-B7C6-A76BA0267EB3.png.ff22d29439547be0841c353edbe9ce82


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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:11 pm

amugs wrote:Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Namconus_asnow_neus_29

HELOOO N&W

A lot of that is sleet. Looks like a front end thump of 1-3" then over to 40's and rain

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Captur59
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Post by amugs on Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:14 pm

Hey Alex stop poo pooing the N&W on the snow since you aint getting much - let them have theirs LOL!! Nice front end hump of about 3-6" NNJ and LHV more N&W. faster is actually better so the HP is in place a bit longer.

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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:17 pm

amugs wrote:Hey Alex stop poo pooing the N&W on the snow since you aint getting much - let them have theirs LOL!! Nice front end hump of about 3-6" NNJ and LHV more N&W. faster is actually better so the HP is in place a bit longer.

LOL, i'm not! Just letting you know that it's not all snow haha, though yes, NW could do well on the front end, and it wouldnt take much further SE shift to get mostly snow! Still have time for trends!
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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:57 pm

0z GFS AND CMC much colder and SE for Wednesday. Mostly all snow for NW folks and snow to rain back to a solid period of snow for NYC east
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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:01 pm

CMC GFS RGEM
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 292ad110
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 E4f86510
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Cd610f10
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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:11 pm

Upton:
The model trend is ewd with the low, with both the
GFS and ECMWF now bringing the low over NYC and LI around 00Z
Thu. For the ECMWF, this is 148 mi SE of the position 24 hours
ago. Another shift of this magnitude would cause the low to
track invof the benchmark Wed ngt. Because of this, the HWO
will continue to be highlighted for Orange county, with room for
expansion should this trend continue.
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Post by dkodgis on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:13 pm

Any sense of timing for Wed? Am or pm?
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Post by amugs on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:33 pm

Germany!!

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Icon_m10
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Icon_a10

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Post by amugs on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:35 pm

Vday storm before we AN temp wise
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33

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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:55 pm

CMC ens Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Ae7f0910
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Post by Guest on Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:39 am

amugs wrote:Vday storm before we AN temp wise
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33

I’ll believe it when I see it Al. Is your post implying we go above normal temperatures starting after V Day?

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Post by Guest on Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:56 am

As of right now it doesn’t get any worse for us snow weenies.  A storm every three days dropping an avg if 1” qpf on our area for 2 weeks straight during what should be the coldest part of winter and fir most of the board it’s rain.  The worst thing weather wise you could ever read. Hopefully the far NAND W crew get into some but for the rest of us........ The best would be after all these storms, we get the cold back but no srorms

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Post by Snow88 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:04 am

I wonder if the precip will come in faster than modeled. That will help the whole area, especially the coast. I do think that this will be a mostly rain event for the coast but a mix inland and mostly snow for the far interior areas near Albany.

It all depends on where the low ends up tracking.
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Post by RJB8525 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:06 am

I'm surprised no thread about the 7th yet

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Stormt16
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Post by aiannone on Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:20 am

RGEM is still cold. Who will win lol
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Post by aiannone on Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:40 am

CMC
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 Captur60
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Post by jimv45 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:49 am

Just like Yesterday with the ice when the forecast called for rain I expect this to go colder with more snow this time will see.

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:19 pm

Separate thread for the 7th posted

_________________
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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:26 pm

A great article regarding defining of the "Polar Vortex"  Stratosphere vs Troposphere.  I encourage everyone to read.  

https://medium.com/@StuOstro/science-and-semantics-of-the-polarvortex-ae73d6fe08c3


Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 1*M5kYbVbeNTZGfFaBVky7Ug


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by amugs on Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:59 pm

MY MJO IS COMING BACK PEEPS!!!!!!!!
Moderate Phase 8 is a very good sign - me likey!! And it looks to run to 1
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 37 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full

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