Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:43 pm

The 12z EPS run has me excited enough to start a thread on this potential event. Nothing is a given at this time but we've been trending in the right direction all weekend. I stated previously we need to keep the west trend alive and not see any regression. We're close enough in time now that we can begin taking this seriously especially for NYC on east. I am characterizing this as Mothrazilla but good potential for Godzilla if it all comes together. See link in my signature to understand what these names mean.

Here are qpf outputs for select cities on the latest EPS:

1 Montauk

75 Islip

.6 N/S boarder

.5 LGA

.4 EWR

The keys:

1. Western ridge
2. Southern s/w (short wave) energy
3. Northern s/w energy
4. Confluence over NE
5. PV location (need separation or H5 to close off to allow the pivot back west)

We'll see what happens! Have a great New Years!!

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:45 pm

One of the EPS members are fun to look at Very Happy


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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:One of the EPS members are fun to look at Very Happy

Frank if you cn make this happen we get buried and I get my crazy winds and I will take you for drinks and apps lol

Is anything about a godzilla possible? I mean that eps indie has be a roidzilla at least, not being greedy just wondering what you think the ceiling is atm, i know alot can change.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by frank 638 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:48 pm

Looking good Frank and happy New year

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by billg315 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:51 pm

I don’t know where this will end up, but if we have an amped ridge out west, a deep trough in the east, cold air locked in place and a powerful Low off the east coast and we don’t get at least a 4-8” storm where I’m located I’ll be pretty disappointed. Lol. I like the overall look. Let’s get the details lined up and have a fun 72 hours.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:53 pm

Frank I had weatherbell but where do you get big images of the indies there, I only ever saw the small panel. How many indies are like that or close to that?
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by hyde345 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:56 pm

Has anybody posted Euro 12z snow maps?
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:02 pm

Srefs are no good but they haven't been that good
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:05 pm

WOW! LOL
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:09 pm

Nam looks good
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:09 pm

aiannone wrote:WOW! LOL
Control is taking control!! If by some shot in the dark this gets really close and is that strong, I can;t even imagine, last time I saw that kinda output was Sandy.  NOT SAYING THIS IS SANDY, just saying I have never seen a winter storm with even ensemble members like that.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:16 pm

MOG!!! Any more shifts west and we in big trouble, forget the snow! That will be least of the problems.  The snow will be the fun part. Yes I know these are overdone by Euro usuallybut the span of the field of the wind is insane, no laughing matter if this comes right up coast.



Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:17 pm

IMO this still has Godzilla potential all over it. Esp for eastern coverage areas

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:18 pm

Can snow maps be posted here now? And if so anyone have the 12z Euro?
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:IMO this still has Godzilla potential all over it. Esp for eastern coverage areas
Slight possibility a roidzilla NYC on east?
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:23 pm

Ryan Maue on twitter: Big picture: Massive and powerful "bomb" Nor'easter forms off East Coast Thursday. Pressure drops 50 mb / 24 hours making it a "double" or > 2 Bergerons. Hurricane force winds.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by mikeypizano on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:24 pm

PLEASE COME WEST!!!!
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:25 pm

mikeypizano wrote:PLEASE COME WEST!!!!
slowly but surely so far mike, do not lose hope.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jimv45 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:28 pm

It will mike have a feeling everybody will be happy

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by frank 638 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:30 pm

My family thinks I am nuts for checking my phone because I am getting very excited right now we are having over told people my house for New Year's. Anyway I am hoping this baby comes more West to give everyone a great big blizzard for everyone not just for Long Island and Coastal jersey and New England this will be a great year to start up 2018 would it big blizzard come on baby come on West

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:31 pm

southern stream is slower again on the 18z Nam. Less spacing between the southern and northern stream.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:33 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:southern stream is slower again on the 18z Nam. Less spacing between the southern and northern stream.
Is the Nam as powerful as the Euro, cuz earlier you guys said it could show a right up the coast senario, if the intensity matches its go get downright serious.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:43 pm

ok weird LP center shifted way east by western precip shield shifted west, it looks like theres a bunch of tiny LP in there too. It looks like NAM is having trouble on which center to focus on, am i right?  It also maybe is chasing the eastern side?

Okay no, the 32km nam is messed up the 12km shows it much further west giggity : )
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:46 pm

Ominous


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2017-2018: 35"

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:47 pm

Looks like at hr 84 its trying chase that little LP to the east OTS? am I wrong?
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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