Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Page 2 of 39 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 20 ... 39  Next

Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Ominous

Okay I will take that it is NOT going OTS by that statement LOL. By the movement of the western most LP center ( there is a doiuble barrel low there) it appears to be moving more east, will it be hooking more back towards the west or is it just my eyes deciving me that its moving east?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:05 pm

This is a great look. Again one low chasing the energy out ahead but the main low in tight along the coast in response to phase. This is a pretty good look here.




_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:06 pm

sroc4 wrote:This is a great look. Again one low chasing the energy out ahead but the main low in tight along the coast in response to phase. This is a pretty good look here.



so that little low will break off and the main lp up the coast? LC says this has potential to be a crippling paralyzing blizzard. Didn't specify area. I don't know much about him but that's a bold statement.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:07 pm

Not that simple jman

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:07 pm

Not gonna lie, there were multiple SREF members that made me do my best impression of The People's Eyebrow aha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4510
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:09 pm

sroc4 wrote:Not that simple jman
okay was just asking basically if the main lp to the west will follow the smaller to east or be it's own entity. I know I'm not a pro but go easy
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:10 pm

rb924119 wrote:Not gonna lie, there were multiple SREF members that made me do my best impression of The People's Eyebrow aha
I read earlier the sref were no good this run u beg to differ?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Not gonna lie, there were multiple SREF members that made me do my best impression of The People's Eyebrow aha
I read earlier the sref were no good this run u beg to differ?

I don't necessarily beg to differ. I mean the SREFS at this range are going to have a spread of solutions approximately equivalent to throwing spaghetti and sauce on a wall and seeing what results. Chaos lol but out of that chaos there were definitely some members that *if correct* would bring tears to the eyes of many in jubilation. By the same token, there are also members as intriguing on the other end of the spectrum. But they are still interesting to me to see the amplification that results in some of them.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4510
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:Not that simple jman

Scott wasn’t it last years blizzard where the NAM had trouble with multiple LOws because it was chasing convection. I’m thinking a storm bombing out like this one could b leading to the same issues. I’d like to hear your thoughts for us LI people.
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3572
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by algae888 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:29 pm

the set up reminds me of the blizzard of jan 2016 with respect to the convection that went east of the primary low. that system was well west of this set up. if you remember dc/balt area was the jp zone several days before  on the major models as the models kept jumping the low east with it's precip shield towards the convection. when it came into the nam range it did not do what the other models were doing and consistently showed a heavy snow event for us. the big difference with this set up is that the trough and low are well east of the jan 16 blizzard so we have very little margin of error here. also scott, rb and frank is it true that lp likes to form near the 540 line?  if so than a closer to coast scenario is more likely. any how this is a very complex set up and do not be surprised if this storm ends up way west or east than currently modeled.
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4668
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:38 pm

NWS out of Red Sox Suck very bullish with their forecast with snow likely Wednesday night and Thursday. But when you read the discussion they say based on 12z guidance they are favoring a more offshore track but due to the expansive size of the storm they expect a lot of precip on the western flank. NOT ENCOURAGING FOR US FURTHER SW IMHO.

Upton hasnt changed their discussion for Thursday one iota in almost 24 hours now. Useless
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3572
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:43 pm

I can't say that I've ever heard that, Al, but conceptually I can kind of see why it might be proposed in a cyclogenesis case such as this one. It follows along the same lines as something I've been pondering since last night. If, big if, but if the troughs can interact, phase, and tilt negative sooner, then why would that insane amount of vorticity advection and jet dynamics overlapped with the natural coastal frontogenesis occurring between the Arctic airmass and Maritime airmass not develop a surface low there and then ride that thermal gradient? I'd have to think that's where your greatest pressure falls would be...? Just a ponderance; I do not know the answer that.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4510
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:48 pm

syosnow94 wrote:NWS out of Red Sox Suck very bullish with their forecast with snow likely Wednesday night and Thursday.  But when you read the discussion they say based on 12z guidance they are favoring a more offshore track but due to the expansive size of the storm they expect a lot of precip on the western flank.  NOT ENCOURAGING FOR US FURTHER SW IMHO.

Upton hasnt changed their discussion for Thursday one iota in almost 24 hours now.  Useless

The weather service is going to go with consensus, like they always do. This also means they will not take any risks, especially with something this impactful. They're gonna hug guidance to cover their rumps lol just like with the tropics.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4510
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:50 pm

GFS looking good
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4042
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:50 pm

Hr 66 of the 18z GFS looks pretty similar to 12z, maybe a little more interaction

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 771
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:51 pm

Looks like heights higher on east coast slightly. Also looks southern stream slower and polar vort faster could be interesting
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4042
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:51 pm

Gfs rolling looks nearly the same at hr 78 at surface anyways. I wouldn't fret too much on 18z. Either way.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by oldtimer on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:52 pm

NWS in Upton is saying the center of LP can't come to much further west cause that will introduce warming is all levels. That would mean mixing or change over to rain along the coast With all this cold air I'm confused Rain has not even been mentioned in here

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1049
Reputation : 13
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 72
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:53 pm

Eww it's east
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:53 pm

A slower southern vort may be better for a earlier phase
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4042
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:53 pm

oldtimer wrote:NWS in Upton is saying the center of LP can't come to much further west cause that will introduce warming is all levels.  That would mean mixing or change over to rain along the coast    With all this cold air I'm confused   Rain has not even been mentioned in here
I don't see how that's possible.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:55 pm

Sloppy phase may ent up a tick east
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4042
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:57 pm

Keep in mind GFS east bias
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4042
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:57 pm

The precip shifted but the L stayed in same spot but 10 mb weaker. Ehh it's 18z
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Carter bk on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:58 pm

There was times when storms broke away and became there own force. I been following these guys since the 7online weather blogs. And seen it happen or become double barrell

Carter bk

Posts : 73
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2017-12-07

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 39 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 20 ... 39  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum