Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:02 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Keep in mind GFS east bias

And it's an off-run....

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by oldtimer on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:05 pm

Jman I gave that statement from Upton word for word

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by algae888 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:07 pm

oldtimer wrote:NWS in Upton is saying the center of LP can't come to much further west cause that will introduce warming is all levels.  That would mean mixing or change over to rain along the coast    With all this cold air I'm confused   Rain has not even been mentioned in here
I agree with them. this is a warm core system. if it gets close enough mixing will be a concern esp for LI. gfs has rain for the cape initially.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:09 pm

We cannot see a model tick east and dismiss it, while only using models that show what we want.
Why was there no mention of a bias or an off run when it ticked west
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:12 pm

....also NO WAY it rains from this storm unless it is way inside the BM. Calm down with that. The arctic air is overwhelming
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:12 pm

There continues to be
strength and track differences amongst the deterministic and
ensembles, but today`s 12z trend has been slightly to the west
on both. It still looks cold enough for snow across the area,
but any further shift west could start bringing in warmer air
aloft with a mix or even changeover to rain at the coast.

How can we be talking about rain in this kind of cold snap lol
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:14 pm

Also it is NOT EAST at all. It's actually exactly in the same position as 12z, just slightly weaker precip field which makes it look east. So everyone relax lol
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:14 pm

algae888 wrote:
oldtimer wrote:NWS in Upton is saying the center of LP can't come to much further west cause that will introduce warming is all levels.  That would mean mixing or change over to rain along the coast    With all this cold air I'm confused   Rain has not even been mentioned in here
I agree with them. this is a warm core system. if it gets close enough mixing will be a concern esp for LI. gfs has rain for the cape initially.

I couldn't agree more. I said two days ago some of the Euro individual members would mean a big rain event in B O S T O N and the Cape and some of eastern CT and RI. Of course that's if the center came close enough to Central/Eastern LI. Right now that doesn't seem likely but all options are still out there, including of course a miss.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Starting to think this storm doesn't have much more room to come west. Its extremely hard to a get a low pressure that develops east of Florida to right off our coast. Would really like to see it develop further west

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by dsix85 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:16 pm

For what it's worth TWC has increased snowfall amounts for Suffolk County on Thursday from 1-3 to 3-5in

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:18 pm

We will get better sampling from the last piece of this puzzle in the next 24-36 hours
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:20 pm

oldtimer wrote:Jman   I gave that statement from Upton word for word
Not what I meant, I meant I do not see with how cold it is that it rains, if it does it will freeze on contact and with that much precip will be a disaster.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:21 pm

aiannone wrote:Also it is NOT EAST at all. It's actually exactly in the same position as 12z, just slightly weaker precip field which makes it look east. So everyone relax lol
Said that earlier, its exactly same spot but the precip shifted a bit, no worries here. Alex me and you may have make a tripo to the cape LOL remember when you went
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Also it is NOT EAST at all. It's actually exactly in the same position as 12z, just slightly weaker precip field which makes it look east. So everyone relax lol
Said that earlier, its exactly same spot but the precip shifted a bit, no worries here.  Alex me and you may have make a tripo to the cape LOL remember when you went

you may get rained on
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by hyde345 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:33 pm

Models are having a hard time with the complex setup especially where the low develops east of Florida coast. I do believe low will develop and track west of where GFS depicts it. I think models will struggle with this until later tomorrow when we get better sampling.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:38 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Also it is NOT EAST at all. It's actually exactly in the same position as 12z, just slightly weaker precip field which makes it look east. So everyone relax lol
Said that earlier, its exactly same spot but the precip shifted a bit, no worries here.  Alex me and you may have make a tripo to the cape LOL remember when you went

you may get rained on
It could and if it does it will be a terrible freezing rain storm because aloft it may be warm but no way the surface gets nice and toasty, recipe for disaster if that happened.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:42 pm

18z ggem looks good
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:44 pm


JMA with a big shift west!
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:52 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
JMA with a big shift west!
huge, and deeper by 4 mb.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:53 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:18z ggem looks good
they only go out to 84? Why not 240 like the operational?
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jake732 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:58 pm

GEFS east
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:01 pm

Boys Thanks for tracking....please have some fun tonight!!! HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE!! party party
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:08 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Also it is NOT EAST at all. It's actually exactly in the same position as 12z, just slightly weaker precip field which makes it look east. So everyone relax lol
Said that earlier, its exactly same spot but the precip shifted a bit, no worries here.  Alex me and you may have make a tripo to the cape LOL remember when you went

you may get rained on

Love ya CP but zero chance
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:09 pm

jake732 wrote:GEFS east

Yep storm done!!
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
JMA with a big shift west!
huge, and deeper by 4 mb.

Western ridge much sharper. I’ll check in at 11:00 and 1:30. Fingers crossed. Happy New Years All. Going out now!
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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