Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:23 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:
jake732 wrote:RGEM still decent hit no?

Yeah, I still think it's a good run. .5-.75" of precip at 15-1 ratios is about 7-10" which is a great snowfall. You get .4" and you're at 6"
Can I ask why we think the ratios will be so high? Do the ratios come from the upper levels cuz surface is not go be that cold I see 30s for thursday. Thats not high ratio temp.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM


The storm must have just jumped east again.  1.5” qpf up the coast into deleware and extreme cape May Jersey then .3” NYC AREA and 1.25” Red Sox Suck.  Doesn’t make sense

It would be, odd, for the interior Delmarva to get 10” or more of snow from a coastal storm that only dumps a few inches on the NJ coast.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:25 pm

NVM temps have dropped on the SR models.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:28 pm

billg315 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM


The storm must have just jumped east again.  1.5” qpf up the coast into deleware and extreme cape May Jersey then .3” NYC AREA and 1.25” Red Sox Suck.  Doesn’t make sense

It would be, odd, for the interior Delmarva to get 10” or more of snow from a coastal storm that only dumps a few inches on the NJ coast.

It's either subsidence near us or it turns ENE at the mid atlantic latitudes or it's just not our storm. If it plays out like this it is odd but we certainly have seen enough similar runs so as not to be surprised.

I'm back to hoping for 2-4, and anything extra if it comes I'll treat as a gift.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:30 pm

This storm is like a God damn roller coaster. I have a headache.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:31 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
jake732 wrote:RGEM still decent hit no?

Yeah, I still think it's a good run. .5-.75" of precip at 15-1 ratios is about 7-10" which is a great snowfall. You get .4" and you're at 6"
Can I ask why we think the ratios will be so high? Do the ratios come from the upper levels cuz surface is not go be that cold I see 30s for thursday.  Thats not high ratio temp.

Yeah, I do know there is a lot of factors that go into snow growth and ratios. It's more than just the surface. Most models I've seen have shown better than 10-1 ratios

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:32 pm

I have never booked on more than 1-3” from this so it would take a complete debacle (ie partly sunny with flurries Thursday), to disappoint me and not a whole lot extra to excite me.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:34 pm

30 hours out and the hi res NAM gives me 20” followed by the RGEM giving me 5” facepalm
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:34 pm

Actually, the snow map from the RGEM isn't all that terrible. It gets more further west than the 3k, but just isn't as robust with the higher totals.

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:37 pm



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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:37 pm

Fox 5 weather teaser... "Bombogenisis"






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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:38 pm

rb924119 wrote:

If you weren’t so smart ang good I’d ban you myself for calling this map anything but putrid
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:38 pm

This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better


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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:40 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better


Whoa!! That's cool!!!!! I didn't know they had that!!!!! Thank you for opening my eyes to this!!

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:40 pm

GFS is going to disappoint big time from looks of surface, even in places that saw a lot on 3km.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:41 pm

Poor frank must be aganozing over his map. I say he goes 2-4” nnj Hudson Valley. 4-8” NYC Jersey coast. 8-12” across LI more east. Then he includes some kind of “ volatile/unpredictable area
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:42 pm

GFS very similar to 18z
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:42 pm

rb924119 wrote:

It’s going to snow heavy enough for a foot in southern Delaware and 10” in Cape May and then, poof, that band disappears and Belmar NJ gets 5”. Lol. Not sure this is accurate from mid-jersey coast to LI. But it gives me 7” (again strangely more than LI??) so I’d take it.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:42 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:

If you weren’t so smart ang good I’d ban you myself for calling this map anything but putrid

Hey, you still can.....just has to pass the judgement of our fearless leader and fellow head haunchos haha you can start a petition, I'll take no offense lmfaooo

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:This is from hr 39 of the 3K NAM. You can see that majority of the area when the snow is the hardest is at about 14/16-1 ratios, so going off that the snow maps would be better


Whoa!! That's cool!!!!! I didn't know they had that!!!!! Thank you for opening my eyes to this!!

I like it, it's really helpful in seeing how the ratios are. Don't know how accurate it is though haha

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:GFS is going to disappoint big time from looks of surface, even in places that saw a lot on 3km.

I don't think at this stage that would surprise any of us.
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:44 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Poor frank must be aganozing over his map. I say he goes 2-4” nnj Hudson Valley.  4-8” NYC Jersey coast.  8-12” across LI more east.  Then he includes some kind of “ volatile/unpredictable area

Oh yeah, this is terrible. Any big event is terrible, really, but this is more difficult than most. I'm actually kind of glad that I am not actually putting out hard numbers this winter lmfao this would have landed me in a box. Heck, it still might!

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:46 pm

Wow 1-2 inch with ratios for me, parts of LI 8 with ratios.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Vinnydula on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:47 pm

Gfs is about 50 miles west
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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:47 pm

GFS



Last edited by Sanchize06 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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