January Obs and Discussions

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:54 am

16.1* for my low this morning after a high of 42*
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by hyde345 on Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:32 am

Got down to 9* this morning, right now 31*. I'm saying goodbye to my snowpack. I am not looking to forward to 50 and heavy rain. UGH.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by TheAresian on Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:23 pm

Is it better to have had snow pack and lost it then to never have had snow pack at all?
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by amugs on Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:48 pm

TheAresian wrote:Is it better to have had snow pack and lost it then to never have had snow pack at all?
Half glass empty of full?


All I can say it has felt like winter these past 3 weeks so we take the good with teh bad as such in life.

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:21 am

The NAM shows rain changing to a wintry mix and then snow Saturday morning for those N&W of NYC. It has support from other guidance as well.



This map counts sleet as snow. I think N&W should be prepared to see more ice than snow Saturday morning. Looks like everyone is raining on Friday then overnight Friday into Saturday morning we begin to see rain transition to sleet/freezing rain for N&W. It will end with a brief period of snow.



This is the coldest the GFS gets Saturday morning when precip is almost out of the area. Overall, my thoughts remain mainly rain Friday & Saturday with a period of sleet, freezing rain, and snow for N&W that could accumulate a couple inches. More ice than snow.

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:53 am

One thing I ha failed to evaluate for the weekend system is the mid level lows.  We are going to have to watch where an 850mb low closes off.  Even though the surface Low maybe tracking near NYC if the 850mb closed low passes to the N&W of the surface low the mid levels will still be infiltrated by the warmth over most of our area.  This is actually what is setting up the potential for the ice/sleet storm.  SLP drags temps below freezing N&W of interior, but if mid levels stay warm sleet and or ice/freezing rain.  Like pretty much every other system thus far this season last minute trends under 24-48hrs will likely occur with cold air being more dominant than models can handle.  It could be real messy for our interior folks come Sat morning.  Keep watching those trends on the hi res models.  I said yesterday by 12z today we will likely stat to see how interesting it really will get.

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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:18 am

Here is an illustration of what I'm talking about.  Bottom line is this.  If the 850mb low closes off the further S&E it tracks relative to the surface Low the sooner and more likely the change over to winter precip. will be for our N&W folks.  OR if the 850mb never actually closes off this would allow the 850mb temps to crash quicker.  If it closes off the 850 ttemps wont crash until the 850mb LP center is past usto the N&E after the precip shiled has moved through.  As you can see by the 06z NAM depiction the surface LP and 850mb LP center are in tight with each other at hr 54.  But the next frame shows the surface Low tracking towards eastern LI vs the 850mb LP continuing on a track N&W.  The result is a surface wind direction of SSW at 850mb vs a surface wind direction of N to NNE from HV on east to N NNW from HV on west.  

We will just have to see how this plays out, and may have to rely on real time observations of the above mentioned factors to see where exactly things unfold.  




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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"[/b]
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by aiannone on Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:30 am

12Z NAM goes even colder and iced down to the coast!
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:26 am

This was one is making it very difficult for travel plans on Saturday morning up to the Albany area. I may have to rethink when I leave.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:34 am

Also Tuesday/Wednesday starting to look interesting
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:44 am

NAM 4am Saturday



7am


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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:50 am

aiannone wrote:12Z NAM goes even colder and iced down to the coast!

Notice 850mb does not close off. This is why the temps crash quicker. We will see if other guidance looks like this.








_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"[/b]
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:55 am

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM goes even colder and iced down to the coast!

Notice 850mb does not close off.  This is why the temps crash quicker.  We will see if other guidance looks like this.








And the surface LP tracks just south of NYC

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"[/b]
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by aiannone on Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:01 pm

12z EURO goes much colder. In line with NAM
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by lglickman1 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:28 pm

Any risk of wintry precipitation down to the coast?

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:56 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Any risk of wintry precipitation down to the coast?

A strong probably not

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"[/b]
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:11 pm

aiannone wrote:12z EURO goes much colder. In line with NAM

Looks like definite driving issues Saturday morning 30 miles N & W of NYC.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:49 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z EURO goes much colder. In line with NAM

Looks like definite driving issues Saturday morning 30 miles N & W of NYC.

Maybe CP, but lots of times after a soaking rainstorm, it's usually just a quick burst of snow, an inch at best.Let's see the radar Saturday morning early.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by essexcountypete on Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:59 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z EURO goes much colder. In line with NAM

Looks like definite driving issues Saturday morning 30 miles N & W of NYC.

Maybe CP, but lots of times after a soaking rainstorm, it's usually just a quick burst of snow, an inch at best.Let's see the radar Saturday morning early.

So true. It's like wind maps being consistently overdone. Back end snows always look nicer on the models than they end up in reality.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by jimv45 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:22 pm

I don't think Cp was talking about snow totals, I think he is saying the roads could be bad with the icing that could take place. It could be bad with temps crashing Saturday even if the precip is light.

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:41 pm

It bears watching jim but I'm not buying it yet.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:06 pm

Sussex-Warren-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Reading, Allentown,
Bethlehem, and Easton
348 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected and maybe a little sleet. The ice
will result in difficult travel conditions. Total ice
accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest New Jersey and east central
Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...temperatures will fall sharply near 50 at
midnight to around 30 at 7 am Saturday with icing developing
rapidly toward daybreak Saturday on gusty north to northwest
winds.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by aiannone on Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:12 pm

There is potential for wintry precip Saturday with highest chances
N/W of NYC. Some light snow and ice accumulation will be possible.
Faster trends to ending precipitation would allow for drier air
before colder air advects in. But synoptic signals are there with
the trough to the west and lingering moisture in the 800-950 mb
layer. The significant drying above 750mb will convey a lack of ice
nuclei Saturday as well, so there could even be a chance of freezing
drizzle. This all points to more ice with precipitation so
subsequent model trends will be monitored to see if this colder
trend continues and if chances for the wintry precip extend farther
SE along the coastal sections of the region.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by SnowForest on Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:50 pm

Currently 50 degrees here in South Jersey. Today felt like March, with the snow melting, muddy ground, and pond ice thawing. I'm looking forward to the return of the cold and snow chances after this thaw.

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:54 pm

All the models are showing pretty strong wind gusts tomorrow evening (40-60) I am sure the high end is way overdone but the low end can and has verified, overdone probably but the blizzard was pretty spot on with the SR models so why is there no mention of any wind threat with the ice? Are the maps just plain wrong as usually is the case?
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