January Obs and Discussions
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moleson
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Page 7 of 13
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
cp I am less than 10 miles from Manhattan my low was 18*. 3 miles away in the Bronx temps were probably +5 or more from my location. the UHI's are not a good representation of our climate in the greater nyc area. there where many times when it is snowing and I have 3-4" of snow at home and when my wife gets to her job in midtown and not one flake has stuck to the ground. of all the reporting stations lga is the worst by far!! they probably keep their thermometer near a vent that blows hot air out of the building. lga should be removed from nyc climate obs.CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The urban heat Island effect rearing it’s ugly head more than usual this morning. As I’ve said many times and most already know calm winds snow cover and clear skies work great for radiational cooling in the suburbs but the calm winds potion of that equation does not work well in NYC and other UHI.
11 degrees for the low here and 45 geographical miles away NYC at 31. Many readings in the teens in surrounding areas this morning.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
18.3* for my low as well
Hit 39.4* yesterday as my high
Hit 39.4* yesterday as my high
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
16.1* for my low this morning after a high of 42*
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
Got down to 9* this morning, right now 31*. I'm saying goodbye to my snowpack. I am not looking to forward to 50 and heavy rain. UGH.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
Is it better to have had snow pack and lost it then to never have had snow pack at all?
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
Half glass empty of full?TheAresian wrote:Is it better to have had snow pack and lost it then to never have had snow pack at all?
All I can say it has felt like winter these past 3 weeks so we take the good with teh bad as such in life.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
The NAM shows rain changing to a wintry mix and then snow Saturday morning for those N&W of NYC. It has support from other guidance as well.
This map counts sleet as snow. I think N&W should be prepared to see more ice than snow Saturday morning. Looks like everyone is raining on Friday then overnight Friday into Saturday morning we begin to see rain transition to sleet/freezing rain for N&W. It will end with a brief period of snow.
This is the coldest the GFS gets Saturday morning when precip is almost out of the area. Overall, my thoughts remain mainly rain Friday & Saturday with a period of sleet, freezing rain, and snow for N&W that could accumulate a couple inches. More ice than snow.
This map counts sleet as snow. I think N&W should be prepared to see more ice than snow Saturday morning. Looks like everyone is raining on Friday then overnight Friday into Saturday morning we begin to see rain transition to sleet/freezing rain for N&W. It will end with a brief period of snow.
This is the coldest the GFS gets Saturday morning when precip is almost out of the area. Overall, my thoughts remain mainly rain Friday & Saturday with a period of sleet, freezing rain, and snow for N&W that could accumulate a couple inches. More ice than snow.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
One thing I ha failed to evaluate for the weekend system is the mid level lows. We are going to have to watch where an 850mb low closes off. Even though the surface Low maybe tracking near NYC if the 850mb closed low passes to the N&W of the surface low the mid levels will still be infiltrated by the warmth over most of our area. This is actually what is setting up the potential for the ice/sleet storm. SLP drags temps below freezing N&W of interior, but if mid levels stay warm sleet and or ice/freezing rain. Like pretty much every other system thus far this season last minute trends under 24-48hrs will likely occur with cold air being more dominant than models can handle. It could be real messy for our interior folks come Sat morning. Keep watching those trends on the hi res models. I said yesterday by 12z today we will likely stat to see how interesting it really will get.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
Here is an illustration of what I'm talking about. Bottom line is this. If the 850mb low closes off the further S&E it tracks relative to the surface Low the sooner and more likely the change over to winter precip. will be for our N&W folks. OR if the 850mb never actually closes off this would allow the 850mb temps to crash quicker. If it closes off the 850 ttemps wont crash until the 850mb LP center is past usto the N&E after the precip shiled has moved through. As you can see by the 06z NAM depiction the surface LP and 850mb LP center are in tight with each other at hr 54. But the next frame shows the surface Low tracking towards eastern LI vs the 850mb LP continuing on a track N&W. The result is a surface wind direction of SSW at 850mb vs a surface wind direction of N to NNE from HV on east to N NNW from HV on west.
We will just have to see how this plays out, and may have to rely on real time observations of the above mentioned factors to see where exactly things unfold.
We will just have to see how this plays out, and may have to rely on real time observations of the above mentioned factors to see where exactly things unfold.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
12Z NAM goes even colder and iced down to the coast!
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
This was one is making it very difficult for travel plans on Saturday morning up to the Albany area. I may have to rethink when I leave.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
Also Tuesday/Wednesday starting to look interesting
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
NAM 4am Saturday
7am
7am
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM goes even colder and iced down to the coast!
Notice 850mb does not close off. This is why the temps crash quicker. We will see if other guidance looks like this.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
sroc4 wrote:aiannone wrote:12Z NAM goes even colder and iced down to the coast!
Notice 850mb does not close off. This is why the temps crash quicker. We will see if other guidance looks like this.
And the surface LP tracks just south of NYC
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
12z EURO goes much colder. In line with NAM
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
Any risk of wintry precipitation down to the coast?
lglickman1- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
lglickman1 wrote:Any risk of wintry precipitation down to the coast?
A strong probably not
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
aiannone wrote:12z EURO goes much colder. In line with NAM
Looks like definite driving issues Saturday morning 30 miles N & W of NYC.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:aiannone wrote:12z EURO goes much colder. In line with NAM
Looks like definite driving issues Saturday morning 30 miles N & W of NYC.
Maybe CP, but lots of times after a soaking rainstorm, it's usually just a quick burst of snow, an inch at best.Let's see the radar Saturday morning early.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
docstox12 wrote:CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:aiannone wrote:12z EURO goes much colder. In line with NAM
Looks like definite driving issues Saturday morning 30 miles N & W of NYC.
Maybe CP, but lots of times after a soaking rainstorm, it's usually just a quick burst of snow, an inch at best.Let's see the radar Saturday morning early.
So true. It's like wind maps being consistently overdone. Back end snows always look nicer on the models than they end up in reality.
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
I don't think Cp was talking about snow totals, I think he is saying the roads could be bad with the icing that could take place. It could be bad with temps crashing Saturday even if the precip is light.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
It bears watching jim but I'm not buying it yet.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
Sussex-Warren-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Reading, Allentown,
Bethlehem, and Easton
348 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing rain expected and maybe a little sleet. The ice
will result in difficult travel conditions. Total ice
accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of northwest New Jersey and east central
Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...temperatures will fall sharply near 50 at
midnight to around 30 at 7 am Saturday with icing developing
rapidly toward daybreak Saturday on gusty north to northwest
winds.
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Reading, Allentown,
Bethlehem, and Easton
348 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing rain expected and maybe a little sleet. The ice
will result in difficult travel conditions. Total ice
accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of northwest New Jersey and east central
Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...temperatures will fall sharply near 50 at
midnight to around 30 at 7 am Saturday with icing developing
rapidly toward daybreak Saturday on gusty north to northwest
winds.
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
There is potential for wintry precip Saturday with highest chances
N/W of NYC. Some light snow and ice accumulation will be possible.
Faster trends to ending precipitation would allow for drier air
before colder air advects in. But synoptic signals are there with
the trough to the west and lingering moisture in the 800-950 mb
layer. The significant drying above 750mb will convey a lack of ice
nuclei Saturday as well, so there could even be a chance of freezing
drizzle. This all points to more ice with precipitation so
subsequent model trends will be monitored to see if this colder
trend continues and if chances for the wintry precip extend farther
SE along the coastal sections of the region.
N/W of NYC. Some light snow and ice accumulation will be possible.
Faster trends to ending precipitation would allow for drier air
before colder air advects in. But synoptic signals are there with
the trough to the west and lingering moisture in the 800-950 mb
layer. The significant drying above 750mb will convey a lack of ice
nuclei Saturday as well, so there could even be a chance of freezing
drizzle. This all points to more ice with precipitation so
subsequent model trends will be monitored to see if this colder
trend continues and if chances for the wintry precip extend farther
SE along the coastal sections of the region.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
Currently 50 degrees here in South Jersey. Today felt like March, with the snow melting, muddy ground, and pond ice thawing. I'm looking forward to the return of the cold and snow chances after this thaw.
SnowForest- Posts : 36
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Re: January Obs and Discussions
All the models are showing pretty strong wind gusts tomorrow evening (40-60) I am sure the high end is way overdone but the low end can and has verified, overdone probably but the blizzard was pretty spot on with the SR models so why is there no mention of any wind threat with the ice? Are the maps just plain wrong as usually is the case?
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